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Barath Balu

 
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  • The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
    If you mean buying calls, I would advise against it unless you have reason to believe that we will see a significant surge in volatility. Front and second month contracts are in contango right now, and VXX will decay due to negative roll yield.

    If you mean selling calls, I personally find it too risky. It's very difficult to predict spikes in the VIX. If a black swan event occurs in that time frame the calls you sold will be exercised, leaving you with a rather hefty bill.
    Apr 9 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
    I may be wrong but I think it is because XIV is an ETN and SVYX is an ETF. I have yet to see options for for any kind of ETN.
    Apr 9 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of The VIX Futures Term Structure On VIX ETPs [View article]
    Playing backwardation is considerably more difficult than playing contango. Sustained and significant backwardation only seems to occur when the VIX is elevated well above its historical mean. The problem this poses is that losses from mean reversion can easily overpower positive roll yield from backwardation. As such I would strongly discourage going long on VXX, TVIX or something of the sort for the sole reason that the term structure is in backwardation. You must also be confident that the spot VIX will continue to remain elevated for some time.
    Apr 7 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
    Yeah. What a lot of people don't seem to realize is that timing a black swan event is tricky, and in the meantime they will be hammered by roll yield from contango. In situations where black swan events seem likely contango tends to be very steep, unless the VIX is already elevated.
    Apr 6 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is ARM Holdings Fairly Valued? [View article]
    Thanks!
    Mar 23 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use VQT To Navigate Volatile Markets And The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Yes I would go long on XIV. The VIX term structure is back in contango so XIV should perform well barring any mishaps.
    Jan 2 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy Gains From XIV [View article]
    I would never recommend a synthetic short for products such as these. Those calls you sell will leave you highly vulnerable in the short term. It is the VIX's nature to rise sharply in a very short period. Imagine if there was some sort of event that caused the VIX to spike. Those calls you sold would be exercised, leaving you with a rather hefty bill.

    Personally, I think that the safest way to play inverse volatility is using XIV to take advantage of VIX futures tendency to be in contango.
    Dec 8 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TVIX: Don't Be Left Holding The Zero [View article]
    A synthetic short would leave an investor vulnerable to short term spikes in the VIX.
    Nov 25 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 8 Launch Looks Like A Bomb [View article]
    1. I checked out the popular google searches for windows 8. None of them were anything like the results you mentioned.

    2. Windows 8 has received pretty favorable reviews so far.

    3. Even if the start button utility was as popular as you say it is(which it isn't), it isn't particularly significant.

    4. You are grossly underestimating the power of the Wintel Duo. They certainly have the potential to take a sizable chunk of the tablet market simply because of the developers that support them.
    Oct 30 10:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why VIX ETPs Have Been Underperforming [View article]
    No. Different term contracts are traded simultaneously and the short term VIX ETPs roll the front and second month contracts over time.
    Oct 28 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why VIX ETPs Have Been Underperforming [View article]
    VQT does experience decay, just not as much as a true VIX ETP. Compare its performance to that of the S&P500 when the VIX has remained flat. You will find that it underperforms.
    Oct 28 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fell a stunning 8.3% Y/Y in Q3, estimates Gartner - that figure makes Q2's 0.1% drop look great by comparison, and is raising eyebrows even with all of the negative industry data that has emerged. Weak back-to-school sales and cautious retailer orders are blamed, though the tablet market's growth is hard to overlook. U.S. shipments -13.8% Y/Y (both consumer and corporate sales were weak), EMEA -8.7%, and Asia-Pac -5.6% (China's slowing growth had an effect). [View news story]
    You are grossly overestimating the potential of the iPad and underestimating the power Windows and Intel. I think Windows tablets actually have a shot at taking a sizable chunk of the tablet market just because they will run PC applications.
    Oct 11 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fell a stunning 8.3% Y/Y in Q3, estimates Gartner - that figure makes Q2's 0.1% drop look great by comparison, and is raising eyebrows even with all of the negative industry data that has emerged. Weak back-to-school sales and cautious retailer orders are blamed, though the tablet market's growth is hard to overlook. U.S. shipments -13.8% Y/Y (both consumer and corporate sales were weak), EMEA -8.7%, and Asia-Pac -5.6% (China's slowing growth had an effect). [View news story]
    I think a lot of the weakness in P/C sales can be attributed to consumers holding out until Windows 8 hits the shelves. More or less the same thing happened with iPhone sales prior to the launch of the 4S. I see this as a great opportunity to load up on some Intel.
    Oct 11 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing QE3 With SLV [View article]
    Please read the rest of the sentence. "protected from any losses in the meantime so long as it remains above $28."
    Sep 1 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy Gains From XIV [View article]
    The purpose of that comparison was to highlight the effect contango has on the price of VIX ETPs. The point was that even though the spot VIX increased, VXX fell and XIV(the inverse VIX ETN) rose. As for the inverse of VXX being greater than the return of XIV, you would be correct in theory but if you tried to short VXX you would lose most of that gain in costs. Thats why I say its better to go long on XIV rather than short VXX or TVIX.

    Front month contracts went into backwardation for a very short period last week. They were back in contango by the time you commented.

    Hope that helped!
    Aug 3 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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