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Barath Balu

 
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  • The Impact Of The VIX Futures Term Structure On VIX ETPs [View article]
    Playing backwardation is considerably more difficult than playing contango. Sustained and significant backwardation only seems to occur when the VIX is elevated well above its historical mean. The problem this poses is that losses from mean reversion can easily overpower positive roll yield from backwardation. As such I would strongly discourage going long on VXX, TVIX or something of the sort for the sole reason that the term structure is in backwardation. You must also be confident that the spot VIX will continue to remain elevated for some time.
    Apr 7 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 8 Launch Looks Like A Bomb [View article]
    1. I checked out the popular google searches for windows 8. None of them were anything like the results you mentioned.

    2. Windows 8 has received pretty favorable reviews so far.

    3. Even if the start button utility was as popular as you say it is(which it isn't), it isn't particularly significant.

    4. You are grossly underestimating the power of the Wintel Duo. They certainly have the potential to take a sizable chunk of the tablet market simply because of the developers that support them.
    Oct 30 10:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fell a stunning 8.3% Y/Y in Q3, estimates Gartner - that figure makes Q2's 0.1% drop look great by comparison, and is raising eyebrows even with all of the negative industry data that has emerged. Weak back-to-school sales and cautious retailer orders are blamed, though the tablet market's growth is hard to overlook. U.S. shipments -13.8% Y/Y (both consumer and corporate sales were weak), EMEA -8.7%, and Asia-Pac -5.6% (China's slowing growth had an effect). [View news story]
    I think a lot of the weakness in P/C sales can be attributed to consumers holding out until Windows 8 hits the shelves. More or less the same thing happened with iPhone sales prior to the launch of the 4S. I see this as a great opportunity to load up on some Intel.
    Oct 11 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General TVIX Has Been Demoted: Use VIX ETFs Instead [View article]
    Technically, VQT, VXX and XIV are all ETNs. Only UVXY is an ETF
    May 17 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Be Cautious About Tesla Motors [View article]
    Trefis is purely a research company.
    Jun 9 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. The reservations give us a measurement of interest, not necessarily demand. It is easy to put down a deposit if you are interested in the car, but withdraw it if you ultimately decide not to purchase it. What I would like to know is how many of the reservation holders are going through with their purchase, and how that ratio is changing over time.

    Again I am in no way saying that demand for Tesla's products will flat line or fall. All I am saying is that investors should be aware of the risks and hurdles the company faces, and should not extrapolate using incorrect interpretations of Q1 sales data.

    In my personal opinion, I think the company will do quite well, but the stock price is well beyond its fair valuation right now.
    May 16 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
    My family is actually considering Audi and Mercedes as well. We actually haven't decided yet though, and have already deferred our reservation once. I personally think its a fantastic car, but my dad needs to travel long distances time to time.

    Again, I am not saying that Tesla will be unable to appeal to the mainstream consumer. All I'm saying is that there is some measure of uncertainty to be accounted for. The current sales figures should not be used to estimate the Model S's popularity in the mainstream market as so many are doing.

    As for Generation III, I wouldn't put too much weight on that. I think it's a bad idea to extrapolate too far into the future with budding industries such as this.
    May 16 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
    Great article Ashraf. I think that the strength of the post-earnings rally can be largely attributed to a short squeeze. As I recall, the quantity on loan was very large before the earnings release.
    May 3 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
    If you mean buying calls, I would advise against it unless you have reason to believe that we will see a significant surge in volatility. Front and second month contracts are in contango right now, and VXX will decay due to negative roll yield.

    If you mean selling calls, I personally find it too risky. It's very difficult to predict spikes in the VIX. If a black swan event occurs in that time frame the calls you sold will be exercised, leaving you with a rather hefty bill.
    Apr 9 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fell a stunning 8.3% Y/Y in Q3, estimates Gartner - that figure makes Q2's 0.1% drop look great by comparison, and is raising eyebrows even with all of the negative industry data that has emerged. Weak back-to-school sales and cautious retailer orders are blamed, though the tablet market's growth is hard to overlook. U.S. shipments -13.8% Y/Y (both consumer and corporate sales were weak), EMEA -8.7%, and Asia-Pac -5.6% (China's slowing growth had an effect). [View news story]
    You are grossly overestimating the potential of the iPad and underestimating the power Windows and Intel. I think Windows tablets actually have a shot at taking a sizable chunk of the tablet market just because they will run PC applications.
    Oct 11 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy Gains From XIV [View article]
    Take a look at the option chain for UVXY. Based on current data, UVXY would need to fall anywhere between 40-50% over the next 6 months just to break even on that trade. Also consider that options are cheaper than usual because of the relatively flat term structure. The roll cost of the august contract is less than 10%.
    Jul 26 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream International Is An Attractive Buy At These Levels [View article]
    Hi Seth. Thank you for your comment.

    I actually could not find what the exact margin on the soda makers was. Can you share the source for your 25% to 30% figure? All I managed to find was a line that they were sold nearly at cost in the 2012 10k filing.

    I have to disagree with your comment on Kitchen Aid. The brand is certainly more popular and has a greater following. http://bit.ly/1ck9kTa

    The regular cola may be cheaper than coke or pepsi under certain circumstances. I chose to compare unit costs to 2 liter bottles. The difference is about $.50/liter vs $.75/liter. Then when you add in the cost of CO2 ($.25/liter) the cost becomes the same. Considering you have a $70 minimum fixed cost, it does end up being more expensive. When you sue naturally flavored cola as the basis for this comparison, which is about $2/liter, its clearly more expensive.
    Feb 25 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Investors Should Not Care About The 5s' Benchmarks [View article]
    I would say that the Galaxy Tab 10.1 was a notable design win
    Nov 9 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Investors Should Not Care About The 5s' Benchmarks [View article]
    Actually cube, I was replying to familymisc's earlier comment, which quoted you.
    Nov 9 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Investors Should Not Care About The 5s' Benchmarks [View article]
    I would agree with you to an extent. Bay Trail way by no means a "huge achievement." Anyone that expected it to singlehandedly make Intel a major player in the mobile space had lofty expectations indeed.

    However, I would say you're a bit too harsh in your analysis. I see Bay Trail as an impressive step in the right direction from a company with next to no history and experience in mobile. They have a long way to go in terms of LTE radio integration, but they made a power efficient chip that matches, if not beats, its competition in performance.
    Nov 8 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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