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Are We Creating Conditions For Another 1929 Crash? A 1987 Crash? Or Are We Just Going Up And Away And Putting Buffett And Schiller In "Their Place"?
Mon, Dec. 8 • 23 Comments
- The conditions that created the 1929 market crash.
- The conditions that created the 1987 market crash.
- Buffett and Schiller warn that this is not a good time to purchase stocks.
Four Graphs That Vividly Support A Contrarian Point Of View
- The role the number seven plays in the rise and fall of markets is ominous for the current situation.
- Our current market is, in the words of Alex Dvorkin, "grossly overvalued.".
- Even worse, if worse can be, people are fully vested in this market, supporting their up "bets" with substantial margin loans, which does not bode well when the correction begins.
Contrarians Can See The Wolf But What Warning Can We Call Out To Those Who Don't Get It?
- The dollar is as sick as a patient with a metastasized cancer that neither patient nor doctor has any awareness of because there are no symptoms.
- The value of the dollar depends on its use in international trading which is a form of supply and demand.
- The dollar seems vivacious in the American/Euro ethnocentric world, as tourists will attest.
- Much of the world - Africa, Asia, Eurasia, have a different diagnosis. BRICS and Asian Infrastructure Investment Development Bank eschew the dollar like Ebola.
- China and America’s friend Australia cut a deal encouraging greater use of the renminbi. Those not so interested in dollar news will enjoy Carl Icahn’s gloomy market prognosis.
Contrarian Eats Crow Over Decay Of Two Hedges That Protect Against Coming Dollar And Market Corrections
- I am much indebted to MarcJoli, gofx, Waverider007 et al for correcting me on important aspects of TVIX and UVXY.
- The Bernanke dollar’s demise is coming--like a person with a hopeless terminal cancer who shows no symptoms, the Bernanke dollar dances as analysts applaud.
- The market is poised for a dive that will only be deeper the higher it climbs. Marc Faber agrees.
- Portfolio insurance includes TVIX UVXY, calls on VIX, puts on SPY, gold and silver.
- Meet the only publicly available analyst who is a professional market-timer.
Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows
- Market is very fragile and the warnings are everywhere.
- The fragile dollar and circling black swans: the weekend allows one or more to land.
- Invest with UVXY which is below its all-time lows—a contrarian’s rare opportunity.
- When to Invest? Friday, before or after the close. Monday morning, before or after the open. When to sell? When correction touches 20% unless the dollar collapses, then wait.
Contrary To What Most Market Participants Believe, Our Dollar Is Verging On Collapse
- The collapse of the dollar is unavoidable and the conditions that will cause the dollar’s collapse worsen daily.
- It’s very difficult to believe our dollar will soon collapse since that prediction is based only on facts and reason but our life experiences tell us otherwise.
- One reason we reject the inevitable collapse of the dollar is cognitive dissonance; an eerily similar Miami example illustrates and explains how this happens.
- There’s only one plausible explanation of why no mainstream journalists are writing about the coming dollar catastrophe. Three journalists provide accounts that back up this hypothesis.
- TVIX is both a hedge and an investment: it doesn’t expire like an option, it is not expensive, and currently trades in the “complacent zone”.
Warning Label For Federal Reserve: QE4-Viagra May Cause Fatal Dollar Heart-Attack - Besides, Whatever The Fed Does, The Market Will Not Stay Up
- A “safe to buy” call from big-hitters including the popular Jim Cramer.
- The inevitable death of the dollar is moving closer as major economic players drop the dollar as the currency of world trade.
- Federal Reserve member Bullard says that the Federal Reserve “should consider a delay in ending quantitative easing”; two Fed members “reply”.
- Other threats to the stock market.
- Circuit Breakers.
The Case For A Black Tuesday
- Yesterday I published “Black Monday The 13th? A Sequel?” Banks, the Fed, and bond markets weren’t open. Without those, Black Monday couldn’t plausibly occur.
- The conditions that supported my prediction of a collapse of at least 10% have not abated.
- Added to these macro-economic conditions and warnings is the fact that Asian and European markets are likely to be negatively affected by Monday’s action.
- My conclusion is that it’s likely we will experience a serious collapse on Tuesday morning the 15th. I include information about market circuit breakers.
- When the market drops, it will likely drop much faster than in 1987 because of high-frequency computer trading. It can also snap back as fast.
Black Monday The 13th? A Sequel?
- In "Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?" Jeff Miller tells us that "this week will be all about earnings."
- I prefer to warn that even though stocks can climb a wall of worry, they also can and do tumble down the cliff of hope.
- My reasons for disagreeing with Jeff have to do with big warnings from the G20 and BIS, plus the recent history of the VIX.
- My perspective is heavily influenced by my experiences of the week before Black Monday and the week of Black Monday, October 19, 1987.
- When the market does drop, it may drop much faster than in 1987 because of new technology and almost instantaneous high-volume computer trading.
What's A Contrarian Investor To Do In October?
- The volatile month of October.
- The contrarian methodology.
- Why a contrarian would choose gold and stocks.
- Believing the Bernanke Dollar is a good contrarian bet involves tremendous cognitive dissonance.
A Financial Double Bubble Creates Investor Trouble
Wed, Sep. 24 • 15 Comments
- What is a financial bubble?
- The stock market bubble.
- The dollar bubble and the dollar- bubble- busters.
- Crash, pains, do I need to lose my gains?
The Dollar Avalanche And Methods To Protect Your Portfolio
- James Rickards in "The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System" introduces the avalanche metaphor.
- The demise of the dollar and threats to the "Bernanke dollar."
- What will the effect of a falling "Bernanke dollar" be on markets?
- Strategies to protect a portfolio: JJA, VIX calls, OEX and S&P puts.
- In conclusion: As far as the avalanche of the "Bernanke dollar," the only question seems to be when that final snowflake will hit, if it hasn't already.
The Attempt To Draw Mom And Pop Investor Into A Risky Market At Its Top
Mon, Sep. 8 • 15 Comments
- The title that U.S. stocks are a safe haven seems manipulative to commentators.
- Commentators argue that the article or at least its title is propaganda.
- Just how risky or safe is this stock market?
- Two hedges against a market correction or worse.
The Market Value Of Vail Resorts In Light Of Cognitive Dissonance About Climate Change And Drought
- Vail’s properties are all within a shifting drought zone caused by global warming.
- There is no reason to expect significant snow or rain before next winter at some of these important sites.
- Small investors have advantages over corporate investors: they have less peer pressure and can check out their conclusions without creating tension with colleagues or superiors who deny climate-change.
- Many put the facts of ecological sustainability in front of investors. The utility of the Morgan Stanley Research …is the fact that they thought to undertake ecological concerns at all.
- The crowd is prone to cognitive dissonance, especially when old beliefs and expectations are challenged and most particularly when money is on the side of a generalized denial regarding climate change.
A Climate Pall Over Vail Resorts
- Bank of America finds Vail one of its “favourite ideas,” raises “price objective to $92 from $80”(high of 79.20 on July 1), and reiterates “buy rating.”.
- Vail has three income sources: skiing, real estate, and rentals. The real estate and rental properties are near the company’s ski resorts.
- The price of the stock was lower because of last year’s poor snow fall.
- Vail’s properties are all within a drought zone caused by global warming: there is no reason to expect significant snow or rain before next winter if then.
- The eco-due-diligence precautionary principle (EDDPP) requires that we take into account relevant negative climate change effects on every investment.
2 Agricultural ETFs Are Best Hedge Against Dollar Depreciation And Rising Food Costs
- The dollar remains vulnerable to depreciation due to years of qualitative easing as well as Greenspan putting devaluation on the table.
- The best ETFs to hedge against dollar depreciation are not metal or oil ETFs, but agricultural ETFs.
- I'll discuss the application of Peter Lynch’s “local knowledge” to food prices.
- Food prices are rising in part due to climate change effects including drought, too much rain, late planting due to snow, pests moving north, and too much heat.
- The two agricultural ETFs, JJA and JJG, are comparable hedges against a weakening dollar and rising food costs, with a nod to JJA.