Seeking Alpha

Bart Gruzalski

 
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  • Are We Creating Conditions For Another 1929 Crash? A 1987 Crash? Or Are We Just Going Up And Away And Putting Buffett And Schiller In "Their Place"?
    Mon, Dec. 8 23 Comments

    Summary

    • The conditions that created the 1929 market crash.
    • The conditions that created the 1987 market crash.
    • Buffett and Schiller warn that this is not a good time to purchase stocks.
  • Four Graphs That Vividly Support A Contrarian Point Of View
    Mon, Dec. 1 SPY, DIA, QQQ 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The role the number seven plays in the rise and fall of markets is ominous for the current situation.
    • Our current market is, in the words of Alex Dvorkin, "grossly overvalued.".
    • Even worse, if worse can be, people are fully vested in this market, supporting their up "bets" with substantial margin loans, which does not bode well when the correction begins.
  • Contrarians Can See The Wolf But What Warning Can We Call Out To Those Who Don't Get It?
    Fri, Nov. 21 UUP, FXE, DIA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The dollar is as sick as a patient with a metastasized cancer that neither patient nor doctor has any awareness of because there are no symptoms.
    • The value of the dollar depends on its use in international trading which is a form of supply and demand.
    • The dollar seems vivacious in the American/Euro ethnocentric world, as tourists will attest.
    • Much of the world - Africa, Asia, Eurasia, have a different diagnosis. BRICS and Asian Infrastructure Investment Development Bank eschew the dollar like Ebola.
    • China and America’s friend Australia cut a deal encouraging greater use of the renminbi. Those not so interested in dollar news will enjoy Carl Icahn’s gloomy market prognosis.
  • Contrarian Eats Crow Over Decay Of Two Hedges That Protect Against Coming Dollar And Market Corrections
    Fri, Nov. 14 TVIX, UVXY 32 Comments

    Summary

    • I am much indebted to MarcJoli, gofx, Waverider007 et al for correcting me on important aspects of TVIX and UVXY.
    • The Bernanke dollar’s demise is coming--like a person with a hopeless terminal cancer who shows no symptoms, the Bernanke dollar dances as analysts applaud.
    • The market is poised for a dive that will only be deeper the higher it climbs. Marc Faber agrees.
    • Portfolio insurance includes TVIX UVXY, calls on VIX, puts on SPY, gold and silver.
    • Meet the only publicly available analyst who is a professional market-timer.
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows
    Fri, Nov. 7 UVXY 195 Comments

    Summary

    • Market is very fragile and the warnings are everywhere.
    • The fragile dollar and circling black swans: the weekend allows one or more to land.
    • Invest with UVXY which is below its all-time lows—a contrarian’s rare opportunity.
    • When to Invest? Friday, before or after the close. Monday morning, before or after the open. When to sell? When correction touches 20% unless the dollar collapses, then wait.
  • Contrary To What Most Market Participants Believe, Our Dollar Is Verging On Collapse
    Tue, Nov. 4 TVIX 76 Comments

    Summary

    • The collapse of the dollar is unavoidable and the conditions that will cause the dollar’s collapse worsen daily.
    • It’s very difficult to believe our dollar will soon collapse since that prediction is based only on facts and reason but our life experiences tell us otherwise.
    • One reason we reject the inevitable collapse of the dollar is cognitive dissonance; an eerily similar Miami example illustrates and explains how this happens.
    • There’s only one plausible explanation of why no mainstream journalists are writing about the coming dollar catastrophe. Three journalists provide accounts that back up this hypothesis.
    • TVIX is both a hedge and an investment: it doesn’t expire like an option, it is not expensive, and currently trades in the “complacent zone”.
  • Warning Label For Federal Reserve: QE4-Viagra May Cause Fatal Dollar Heart-Attack - Besides, Whatever The Fed Does, The Market Will Not Stay Up
    Mon, Oct. 20 UDN, FXE, DIA 31 Comments

    Summary

    • A “safe to buy” call from big-hitters including the popular Jim Cramer.
    • The inevitable death of the dollar is moving closer as major economic players drop the dollar as the currency of world trade.
    • Federal Reserve member Bullard says that the Federal Reserve “should consider a delay in ending quantitative easing”; two Fed members “reply”.
    • Other threats to the stock market.
    • Circuit Breakers.
  • The Case For A Black Tuesday
    Tue, Oct. 14 TVIX, VXX, UVXY 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Yesterday I published “Black Monday The 13th? A Sequel?” Banks, the Fed, and bond markets weren’t open. Without those, Black Monday couldn’t plausibly occur.
    • The conditions that supported my prediction of a collapse of at least 10% have not abated.
    • Added to these macro-economic conditions and warnings is the fact that Asian and European markets are likely to be negatively affected by Monday’s action.
    • My conclusion is that it’s likely we will experience a serious collapse on Tuesday morning the 15th. I include information about market circuit breakers.
    • When the market drops, it will likely drop much faster than in 1987 because of high-frequency computer trading. It can also snap back as fast.
  • Black Monday The 13th? A Sequel?
    Mon, Oct. 13 SPY, QQQ, DIA 80 Comments

    Summary

    • In "Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?" Jeff Miller tells us that "this week will be all about earnings."
    • I prefer to warn that even though stocks can climb a wall of worry, they also can and do tumble down the cliff of hope.
    • My reasons for disagreeing with Jeff have to do with big warnings from the G20 and BIS, plus the recent history of the VIX.
    • My perspective is heavily influenced by my experiences of the week before Black Monday and the week of Black Monday, October 19, 1987.
    • When the market does drop, it may drop much faster than in 1987 because of new technology and almost instantaneous high-volume computer trading.
  • What's A Contrarian Investor To Do In October?
    Tue, Sep. 30 GLD, SPY, JJA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The volatile month of October.
    • The contrarian methodology.
    • Why a contrarian would choose gold and stocks.
    • Believing the Bernanke Dollar is a good contrarian bet involves tremendous cognitive dissonance.
  • A Financial Double Bubble Creates Investor Trouble
    Wed, Sep. 24 15 Comments

    Summary

    • What is a financial bubble?
    • The stock market bubble.
    • The dollar bubble and the dollar- bubble- busters.
    • Crash, pains, do I need to lose my gains?
  • The Dollar Avalanche And Methods To Protect Your Portfolio
    Thu, Sep. 11 UUP, UDN, FORX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • James Rickards in "The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System" introduces the avalanche metaphor.
    • The demise of the dollar and threats to the "Bernanke dollar."
    • What will the effect of a falling "Bernanke dollar" be on markets?
    • Strategies to protect a portfolio: JJA, VIX calls, OEX and S&P puts.
    • In conclusion: As far as the avalanche of the "Bernanke dollar," the only question seems to be when that final snowflake will hit, if it hasn't already.
  • The Attempt To Draw Mom And Pop Investor Into A Risky Market At Its Top
    Mon, Sep. 8 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The title that U.S. stocks are a safe haven seems manipulative to commentators.
    • Commentators argue that the article or at least its title is propaganda.
    • Just how risky or safe is this stock market?
    • Two hedges against a market correction or worse.
  • The Market Value Of Vail Resorts In Light Of Cognitive Dissonance About Climate Change And Drought
    Mon, Aug. 18 MTN 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Vail’s properties are all within a shifting drought zone caused by global warming.
    • There is no reason to expect significant snow or rain before next winter at some of these important sites.
    • Small investors have advantages over corporate investors: they have less peer pressure and can check out their conclusions without creating tension with colleagues or superiors who deny climate-change.
    • Many put the facts of ecological sustainability in front of investors. The utility of the Morgan Stanley Research …is the fact that they thought to undertake ecological concerns at all.
    • The crowd is prone to cognitive dissonance, especially when old beliefs and expectations are challenged and most particularly when money is on the side of a generalized denial regarding climate change.
  • A Climate Pall Over Vail Resorts
    Sun, Jul. 6 MTN 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America finds Vail one of its “favourite ideas,” raises “price objective to $92 from $80”(high of 79.20 on July 1), and reiterates “buy rating.”.
    • Vail has three income sources: skiing, real estate, and rentals. The real estate and rental properties are near the company’s ski resorts.
    • The price of the stock was lower because of last year’s poor snow fall.
    • Vail’s properties are all within a drought zone caused by global warming: there is no reason to expect significant snow or rain before next winter if then.
    • The eco-due-diligence precautionary principle (EDDPP) requires that we take into account relevant negative climate change effects on every investment.
  • 2 Agricultural ETFs Are Best Hedge Against Dollar Depreciation And Rising Food Costs
    Mon, Jun. 23 JJA, JJG 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The dollar remains vulnerable to depreciation due to years of qualitative easing as well as Greenspan putting devaluation on the table.
    • The best ETFs to hedge against dollar depreciation are not metal or oil ETFs, but agricultural ETFs.
    • I'll discuss the application of Peter Lynch’s “local knowledge” to food prices.
    • Food prices are rising in part due to climate change effects including drought, too much rain, late planting due to snow, pests moving north, and too much heat.
    • The two agricultural ETFs, JJA and JJG, are comparable hedges against a weakening dollar and rising food costs, with a nod to JJA.