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  • Railroads Offer Tremendous Potential For Dividend Lovers. Here Are 2 To Consider [View article]
    Hi abec: I disagree with your comments about it being too late to buy railroad stocks. CNI, for example, has grown EPS by an average of over 12% per year for 15 years now and is projected to continue to do so for the next five years.

    It would have been a great time to buy CNI in 2009...just like it would have been for pretty much any other stock.
    Nov 18 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Should Look To Canada [View article]
    Hi Gibor365. I like Suncor, it also has large oil reserves although it is a slightly different play. CNQ has diverse assets by type (light oil, heavy oil, NGLs) and geography whereas Suncor is almost exclusively heavy oil in the Alberta Oilsands region. That brings the unique technological and political risks with that region.

    Suncor is the more mature company with higher production rates and sales. While both companies have large reserves and the ability to increase production, CNQ's larger reserves and asset bases allows the potential for more growth. Potential, of course, is not always realized.

    Normally I would chose CNQ easily over SU, however the market has deeply discounted SU this year. The price is bordering on ridiculously low and may be very tempting to a value investor.

    I am still choosing CNQ but realize you can make a very strong argument for SU. Because of the low valuation SU may actually be the safer play.
    Nov 4 07:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth History: Not Useful For Prediticing Future Yield-On-Cost [View article]
    Stoxx 30 was local currency but for the Brazilian companies I used the ADRs.
    Nov 3 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth History: Not Useful For Prediticing Future Yield-On-Cost [View article]
    Hi No Free Cake. All dividend growth rates are in local currency; that is USD for U.S. companies and CAD for Canadian companies.
    Nov 3 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth History: Not Useful For Prediticing Future Yield-On-Cost [View article]
    Hi Richjoy403. You did get the main points of the article, thank you. I was trying to criticize the simplistic idea that all you had to do to calculate future YOC was take the current yield and apply a historical DGR. I believe that is a poor approach.

    I also feel that some DGIs are not adequately diversified. U.S. blue chips are a great asset class, historically one of the best, but investors should look at different countries.

    Dividend growth being a product of future EPS growth sounds right to me, too. After the Great Recession the earnings growth of companies dove but is now reverting back to its prior trendline. Hopefully that means dividend growth will increase, too.
    Nov 3 08:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth History: Not Useful For Prediticing Future Yield-On-Cost [View article]
    I think you are dead on! I am dividend growth investor myself and I look at the "intent and ability" to increase dividends. I don't believe historic DGRs tell you much about the company's future dividend increases; my main metrics are EPS growth and payout ratio.

    I remember an author several weeks back calculating CenturyLink's future yield based upon it's 5 year DGR of 60%. I believe it was you, Mr. Fish, who commented in the comment section why that was unlikely.

    My article was directed at that line of thinking. I certainly was not suggesting that dividend growth would stop.
    Nov 3 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Should Look To Canada (Part 2) [View article]
    Hi FMHouser. The tax treaty signed between the U.S. and Canada states that there will be no taxation of dividend income in accounts intended for retirement (e.g., RRSPs in Canada or IRAs in America). If held in a taxable account there will be a withholding tax but an American investor can claim an off setting tax credit on their annual return.
    Nov 3 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Should Look To Canada [View article]
    Hi hat_trick2,
    With RSI, like most former trusts, the conversion to a corporation knocked the wind out of their sails and they were forced to cut their dividend. It looks like the new dividend is sustainable with room to grow in the future albeit slowly. My caution with the stock is that it has been slowly grinding down for over a year now, although it has driven up the yield to a nice 6.6%

    If you are interested in plays like RSI, may I suggest Acadian Timber (ADN)? Also a high-yielding, slow growth former trust but may have some inflation protection with its assets tied to forestry.
    Nov 2 12:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Should Look To Canada [View article]
    hat_trick3: thanks for suggesting two more unconventional Canadian dividend plays!

    RSI had done well, offering up nice total returns over the last several years but is struggling a little bit now. EPS was negative this year and projected to be flat next year. I wouldn't sell the stock but would like to see a bit of a turn around before opening a new position.

    LIQ is a former trust that does offer a nice 7.5% yield. The dividend looks safe, it is a nice defensive stock and an indirect play on the oil sands. My only qualm with the stock is their attempt to expand into the U.S. which has not gone well at all.
    Nov 1 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Cost Of Sovereign Default Plunges [View article]
    Here are a few choice countries that have never defaulted in their history: Canada, Denmark, Belgium, Finland, Malaysia, Mauritius, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Switzerland and England.
    Apr 17 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These 5 Companies Could Rally Strongly In The Next 5 Months [View article]
    It is always nice to see someone who actually understands basic statistics -- thank you! Bonus points would have been given for a goodness of fit statistic :)
    Jul 29 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Your Dividend Growth Strategy To The Next Level [View article]
    Hi Dan7256,

    Yes, I calculate a value range for every stock I own and every stock on my watchlist. I calculate them using a combination of my favorite metrics: earnings yield vs historical earnings yield (similar rationale to the CAPE), PEG and a Discounted Cash Flow.

    One thing I didn't make clear in the article that I should have is that my value ranges are somewhat subjective. They are the values that *I* would be happy to pay for a given stock and not necessarily an attempt to calculate a stock's exact fair value (if that is even possible).

    I believe my ranges are reasonable if somewhat conservative and help me have the required discipline to buy on dips and to prevent me from chasing a hot stock.
    Jun 6 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Your Dividend Growth Strategy To The Next Level [View article]
    That is a very good validictus, as mentioned in the article, transaction costs must be kept low. Using DRIPs or a brokerage like Sharebuilder helps a lot for smaller investors.

    DCA isn't really about getting a good price it's more about making sure that you don't make a big mistake.
    Jun 4 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Tips For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    I prefer hold 'em because it is easier for relatively inexperienced poker players to play. I find the larger luck factor in the game tends to allow a poor player to have short-term success, encouraging them to continue wagering their money against someone who can easily beat them in the long run.
    Apr 20 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Tips For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words. It is tough to hold investments that are losing value quickly, which is why it is important to have a well thought out plan that you truly believe in.
    Apr 18 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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