Beacon Asset Ma...'s  Instablog

One of the current generational sweet spots is the shoe industry, and one of our favorite potential "Super Stocks" is Lacrosse (BOOT). We will be featuring it as our Stock of the Month in our upcoming February issue of The Age Curve Report.

Business Week: Bootmaker LaCrosse Footwear Inc. said Monday that its fourth-quarter profit climbed 96 percent, partially due to an increase in demand for its work and outdoor shoes. LaCrosse Footwear makes a variety of boots for law enforcement, construction and military personnel. It also sells hunting boots and other outdoor footwear.

The company earned $2.3 million, or 36 cents per diluted share, in the three months that ended Dec. 31. That compares with a profit of $1.2 million, or 18 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 21 percent to $42.5 million from $35.1 million during the same time last year.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected LaCrosse Footwear to earn 36 cents per share. For the full year, LaCrosse Footwear earned $5.5 million, or 86 cents per share. That's down about 10 percent from last year's profit of $6.2 million, or 96 cents per share.

Full-year sales rose 9 percent to $139.2 million, up from $127.9 million in 2008. The company also issued a special cash dividend of $1 per share, along with a quarterly dividend of 12.5 cents per share. The dividends will be paid on March 18, 2010, to shareholders of record on Feb. 22, 2010.

Source:Google Finance

The company issued very positive guidance in November:

Google Finance:Nu Skin now projects fourth quarter revenue to be in the $360 to $365 million range, up from $343 to $348 million. The company is also increasing earnings per share guidance to be in the $0.37 to $0.39 range, including a planned $0.01 restructuring charge, up from $0.32 to $0.34.

"We are raising our guidance primarily due to a very successful prelaunch of our flagship ageLOC skin care system at our global distributor convention, as well as our anticipation that Japan will continue to see a small trend improvement in the fourth quarter," said Truman Hunt, Nu Skin president and chief executive officer. "Also, we expect a weaker dollar will benefit our results slightly more than we had anticipated. We look forward to providing more detail relating to the improving results of our business in our meeting with shareholders today."

"Based on the momentum we're generating in our business, we now expect annual revenue to be $1.313 to $1.318 billion," said Ritch Wood, Nu Skin chief financial officer. "Earnings per share for 2009 should be $1.30 to $1.32, including restructuring charges of approximately $0.13."

The company also announces 2010 annual revenue expectations of $1.37 to $1.4 billion with earnings per share of $1.60 to $1.70.

Consensus earnings expectations are for earnings for the fourth quarter 2009 of 0.41 cents and $1.45 for the full year. The consensus earnings for 2010 is $1.70, which places it on an undemanding P/E of 14.4 and a current P/S of 1.1.

In the coming years we believe the surprises remain on the up side for this exciting stock.

Source: Google Finance
 

The sharp pull back has been accompanied by a healthy pull back in investor sentiment. The Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll fell back to 50.4, placing it in to the neutral band.

Due to our caution (valuation and anything to do with China), we have placed a stop-loss at 1080 on the S&P 500 or 108 on the ETF (SPY). At this point, we would look to shift to a more defensive portfolio stance to protect the model's capital.

In summary: Don't jump just yet and until then, enjoy the bumps! 


Source: Ned Davis Research