Finished CFA level 1 & CAIA level 1 in a breeze. Looking forward to CAIA level 2 and CFA level 2. Made top 1% on the Bloomberg BAT, but was a black sheep at my mediocre college, and I was foolish to let it affect me. (non-traditional student)
Hope to write some quality articles in the coming year.
I was playing with fire my first year in the market, using a lot of call options. It was easy to make 50+% gain in 1st yr, summer '13 to summer '14 (thank you bull mkt). This past half year has been a little rough; I wish I had acted more decisively on material information about the energy market and the movement of the Ruble ($YNDX is a favorite).
I remember announcing the probably course of events to family the morning after OPEC's Thanksgiving's Day announcements, and I regrettably decided to wait it through b/c our professors chided us to take a buy and hold approach, and b/c I had bought some quality energy names at very fair prices in October. In retrospect, I realize the importance of optionality or in a sense, degrees of freedom.
In this case, I realize I am too committed to a base scenario (energy stocks recovering in the next year) that has too much opportunity cost. If the price adjustment cycle lasts longer than the expected scenario, then I will be unhappy with the opportunities lost. An equal weight short position would have been an ideal temporary maneuver, expressing my short-term thesis, while not causing commitment angst in the present, hoping for the long-term adjustment to blow over.
I was entrusted with a fresh 100K family capital this past summer, and I plan to be more prudent and thorough (obviously with minimal leverage or derivatives). This market is a little dangerous with high debt loads in China, somewhat high valuation levels (horrible Schiller CAPE ratio, but not sure if that matters as much), and jitters over rate hike, Ukraine, terrorism, epidemics, difficulty of private sector adjusting to Obamacare, and possible fiscal & monetary stimulus tapering.
I think low energy prices is a great stimulus, but the possibilities of a perfect storm with semi-hard landing in China or Europe, a serious violent flare-up with Russia or the Terror War, and disease outbreak could somehow happen at just the wrong time (perhaps, right after a rate hike).
I've read a fair amount of Buffett. But I love the tech industry mostly. To humor Buffett (a tech dinosaur), I bought a tiny bit of IBM. It has been working hard to transform its whole business, and actually has some top-notch talent and product portfolios with a fairly conservative valuation. The market is probably right that is a long-shot that IBM will grow significantly again, despite its immense technology assets and partnerships. Recent comment: feel lucky to have exited IBM at a small gain; mulling a re-entry and annoyed that I missed the recent Google explosion. Google is solidifying its reach and ecosystem, but at steep multiples.
I've been away from investing for much of the past half year (now dec'15), partly because I was getting cyberattacks on my twitter account, my computer, and broker connection was being intercepted, which made me very uncomfortable. My car also very suddenly needed an engine replacement that same week, despite a thorough check-up a month prior. I'm having a hard time moving forward, after severe blacklisting after-effects, (too long & weird to discuss).
CAIA & CFA level 1s were super-easy even though I was underprepared. I look forward to embracing the challenge. I will end up working in Europe or abroad, if I have to. Lucky to get tons of invites from Bloomberg recruitment due to top notch scores, but haven't really applied b/c of crummy school issues. Plan to work on Wall Street Prep & hopefully some SA articles.
Dreamjob: working for a hedge fund focussing in equities, preferably with a multicultural bunch (I'm half european / half asian american)
Long-term dream job: top-notch hedge fund manager
My favorite time horizon: 3mo to 18mo, b/c best chance of having a direct connect with news & analysis. market moves too fast to be primarily buy & hold, albeit such a mid-term outlook forfeits the benefit of effective interest-free loan in the the form of deferred taxes (as Buffett makes use of) as well as benefit of a capital gains rate, but on the other hand, a mid-term outlook maximizes flexibility. I'm trying to stay more grounded in fundamentals, flesh out the invest case for a quite a handful of stocks, and balancing risks in wide portfolio. Plan to explore ETF's more.
Steinway Capital Inc is a New York based proprietary investment research firm with a focus on opportunistic long-term investments. The firm focuses on spin-off related investment strategies, distressed and post distressed investments, and event driven special situation investments. Steinway Capital Inc. pursues no fixed methodology and is selective in its ongoing coverage targets.
Prior to founding Steinway Capital in 2004, Christopher Schulz was for 5 years a Senior Analyst at Horizon Asset Management Inc/New York (a $15 billion asset management firm with hedge funds, mutual funds and managed accounts run by Murray Stahl and Steven Bregman, now known as Horizon Kinetics LLC). At Horizon, he was in charge of The Spin-Off Report, which during his tenure gathered a cumulative track record of 120%. Steinway Capital Inc advises institutional investors, family offices and self-directed affluent investors through written research and verbal consultation, and does not manage client assets.
In addition to his Wall Street advisory activity, Christopher Schulz has 7 years of operational background in hotel audit at Sheraton, market research for Isopublic/Gallup, and various chemical laboratory testing/quality control assignments at Leica Geosystems, Rhone-Poulenc and SFS Intec/SFS Holding.
I have been investing since the late '70s and managing individuals money since 1985. Over those 25+ years our composite average has compounded at 13.7% per annum, some 3.5 percentage points better than the S&P 500. Three percentage points might not seem like much, but over 25 years it doubles your money. I am currently not accepting new clients, and this in no way constitutes an advertisement.
Rick Konrad has been an equity portfolio manager for over 35 years. At present, he provides strategic management consulting to both institutional buy and sell side firms. His greatest joy outside of his family is education, in particular, training young people to become better research analysts, portfolio managers, and financial planners.
Peter Pratt is a 30-year veteran of the telecom industry. He is the Principal of PrattNetworks LLC, an advisory firm focused on the telecom sector.
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Let me give you some numbers about the US Economy :
Domestic debt at 400% of GDP 70%of the Economy is Consumption based with borrowed money , Now you understand why I am bearish ....I let you imagine the outcome of this debt based casino economy ....join me on my blogs meanwhile :