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Ben Axler

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  • Cray: Even More Upside? [View article]
    It is quite possible we are closer to the beginning than the end of a supercycle in the need for big data analytics and supercomputing power.

    http://on.wsj.com/179HRmT
    Apr 1 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Inc.: A High Growth Email Marketing Company With An Attractive Dividend And Takeover Potential [View article]
    SMTP went public through a direct public offering, which is essentially an IPO without an investment banking firm. They did this because they didn’t need to raise money, but without an investment banking firm, there was no roadshow or analyst coverage. This probably has more to do with the low volume than the fact it trades on the OTC.

    The method by which a company becomes publicly traded should have no impact on how a strategic buyer would value their business. Fundamentals, cash flow and traditional valuation methods should drive the overall business valuation, not trading venue or liquidity.

    Bowen specializes in representing technology companies in merger/acquisitions. Presumably management at SMTP did sufficient due diligence and believed they would be best suited to represent them before engaging their services. If Bowen can't get the job done, there are plenty of other boutique investment banks focusing on technology to engage.

    As management has not offered any forward guidance, I am not in a position to make any projections. However, if you review carefully the comparable company / deal valuations I've provided, and see SMTP's above average growth and margin profile, and below average valuation, I do think a case can be made for meaningful upside from current levels.
    Nov 28 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Inc.: A High Growth Email Marketing Company With An Attractive Dividend And Takeover Potential [View article]
    33 Alpha:

    Bowen was retained to find a buyer to purchase SMTP. The agreement references other types of transactions that could transpire, but if you look at the BowenAdvisors.com website, they are a buyside/sellside M&A firm. I'm viewing the announcement with Bowen as a free call option at the current price.

    The entire Bowen contract can be found here:

    http://1.usa.gov/TlHSec
    Nov 27 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Inc.: A High Growth Email Marketing Company With An Attractive Dividend And Takeover Potential [View article]
    Don:
    I suggest that if you like the business, the market opportunity, and the dividend, then stick in a bid for shares. I ran my analysis at $1.15 per share, which still offers a 6%+ dividend yield, and is not an excessive valuation.
    Nov 27 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Dividend Cut Could Mean 70% Drop In Stock Price [View article]
    This stock has done nothing but languish...but hey the company still puts out entertaining press releases!!


    Student Transportation Inc. Launches Holiday Donation Drive

    http://yhoo.it/RImOiW
    Nov 7 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Dividend Cut Could Mean 70% Drop In Stock Price [View article]
    Yeah nice "net income" from an accounting gain on acquisition.

    Way to go STB. Another PR report of misleading headlines. You're right the free cash flow CFO - capex = NEGATIVE
    Sep 26 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Dividend Cut Could Mean 70% Drop In Stock Price [View article]
    You gotta love this opaque company. The headline says "Delivering 20 Percent Growth of Revenue and Cash Flows, Margins Consistent"

    Yet, their cash flows (and free cash flow) is no where to be found in the PR...just the EBITDA which is mostly D&A+stock comp
    Sep 25 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UAMY Stock Pump Points To Substantial Downside; Evidence Calls For Regulatory Scrutiny [View article]
    Blaise:
    When you say they were the best two quarters in history, you are referring to revenue, but not EPS right? The evidence the author has presented is that UAMY is structurally incapable of making a profit because its products cannot compete on cost. There is no evidence whatsover that they will be able to lower feedstock costs from Mexico going forward. Meanwhile the company continues to delay and delay in providing more information about assay and drilling results. It's nice that you sight geological studies done 100 years ago, but why not commission a study done today, with more advanced geological techniques?
    Sep 22 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UAMY Stock Pump Points To Substantial Downside; Evidence Calls For Regulatory Scrutiny [View article]
    Is this relevant to the valuation?

    http://bit.ly/QIjcfy

    Their only cheerleader, aside from the retail faithful crowd who are now all under water, is backing down
    Sep 21 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Dividend Cut Could Mean 70% Drop In Stock Price [View article]
    Yes it's called Quantitative Easing, a rising tide lifts all boats, the true test is who is naked when the money disappears
    Sep 13 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Antimony Corp.: A Commodity Stock That Could Fall 80% [View article]
    Thanks for sharing this link Ian. You highlight another risk of owning this stock, which is their fortunes are tied to the capricious nature of Chinese policies. You also raise a great point about Molycorp. The stock always traded on unrealistic valuation metrics and they have failed to execute. The Forbes article that compared UAMY to Molycorp should be a sharp warning for long investors, especially at this inflated valuation level. As turnseed points out, the company has not produced any valid reports backed by geological experts as to what exactly they own. This is an essential precondition for owning any mining stock. The only arguments the long supports are making here is that we should trust both them and management.
    Aug 31 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Antimony Corp.: A Commodity Stock That Could Fall 80% [View article]
    Blaise: Thanks for your input. Most equity investors focus on earnings per share and not revenues. Unfortunately, higher commodity prices do not always translate into higher earnings for lower quality commodity companies that cannot efficiently run their business and control costs. Mining costs have escalated significantly in the past few years and should be scrutinized carefully with respect to this company. Where are they getting their skilled and technical labor force to operate in Mexcio? There's a death of skilled mining works currently on a global basis; just talk to any people in the industry and you'll find this out quickly. Has management given any guidance whatsoever on the cost side of their equation?
    Aug 24 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Antimony Corp.: A Commodity Stock That Could Fall 80% [View article]
    If you want a good case study for UAMY, look no further than Malaga (TSE: MLG). Malaga is a producer of tungsten concentrates. It's the same old story here of a company that produces a rare commodity that china has a monopoly on.

    Notice the parallel of a Forbes article claiming you must own tungsten?

    http://onforb.es/Q8ULLb

    So what is Malaga, a producer of tungsten products worth? Unfortunately, Malaga is worth just $20 million and trades at a p/e of 7x....If you think UAMY is worth many multiples of this company, I hope this serves as an effective warning for you.

    Malaga Price Quote
    http://yhoo.it/Q8UNmg

    Malaga Valuation
    http://yhoo.it/Q8UNmi
    Aug 24 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Antimony Corp.: A Commodity Stock That Could Fall 80% [View article]
    Have I held antimony in my hand? Is this a serious question you pose? You clearly don't understand a single thing about what you've invested in do you? You should know that antimony is hazardous and can affect the skin and eyes. Readers don't have to take my word for it, just read what the EPA has to say about antimony:


    http://1.usa.gov/T3eybV

    Also, readers should view the company's website on their mexico operations. You'll see a very poorly designed website with pictures of mexicans sifting through rocks

    http://bit.ly/T3eysc

    Why can't the company show any clear pictures of antimony on their website? Antimony is not hard to identify since it has a silver mettalic luster. I've posted a picture for readers here:

    http://bit.ly/SvKkm1


    As for my track record, I have 100% accuracy for short ideas. Can you please point to your public record here and credibility recommending stocks?

    Bazaarvoice (BV) -20%
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Camelot Info (CIS) -80%
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://bit.ly/QybSk8

    ZST Digital Networks -96%
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    China Integrated Energy -96%
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Liquid Metals -80%
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 24 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Antimony Corp.: A Commodity Stock That Could Fall 80% [View article]
    Blaise: I stand corrected on the institutional ownership. Many funds recently reported updated holdings. Keep in mind, many of these institutions are forced to hold shares due to UAMY's index inclusion, so I would not draw any overly bullish conclusions just yet. Also, you focus extensively on supply side scarcity issues, but antimony is equally a demand story. With anemic world GDP growth, declining usage in lead acid batteries, and no known future uses, why should one be overly bullish on antimony?

    You have been predicting "record earnings" for UAMY for well over a year now and it's failed to materialize. The company seems incapable of producing more than 1 penny of earnings in even the highest price antimony environments. This ought to give you a good sense of just how tough there business is to make money and how bad management has executed. I have severe doubts that the future will look any different from the past.

    Fred Ohr: I'm glad you qualify your response with an "IF"
    There are two many unknowns here to draw any meaningful conclusions on future earnings. You also assume that this company has the right people and managerial talent to execute in Mexico. Why has it taken a decade to get where they are today, which is still no closer to any clear earnings roadmap?
    Aug 23 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
185 Comments
131 Likes