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Ben Green

 
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  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    The ones I own are:

    SLW, KGC, ANV, PVG, AXU, AUMN, JAG, VGZ

    The ones that I am adding to are:

    SLW, KGC, VGZ and maybe..... ANV, PVG

    It seems like the only royalty companies have managed the downturn well because they dont have the ongoing capex requirements (SLW, FNV, RGLD, SAND, etc.)
    Nov 10, 2013. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    I think that the new management team did a hell of a job cutting costs and improving / rightsizing the operation. I expected average gold prices of $1,500-$2,000 this year. In that climate they probably would have made it. Instead we had average gold prices of $1,200 - $1,500. Given that the market cap is only $8M at $0.10 per share you would think they could at least get say $0.50 for the shareholders which would be approx $40M. I would put this possibility at less than 5% though.
    Nov 10, 2013. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    If you want to invest in Jaguar post the reorganization I would wait for it to happen. My understanding is that the the bonds are going to be converted to new equity, the existing equity will be wiped out, and Im guessing renvest will remain with their line of credit as they are the senior secured lender. It might be 6 months or more until this all gets sorted out. The reorganized company will be interesting to follow if they keep the same management team as they had a hell of a quarter reducing cash costs to 800ish and all in costs to 1200s. But there is nothing left here currently - too hard to predict what the bond holders would receive in the reorganization.
    Nov 10, 2013. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    JAG equity today at $.20 values entire company at $16M versus debt of $300M. At $.10 equity is valued at $8M. Point is that at either price the equity is priced for bankruptcy. I take this that market is pricing about 5-10% probability of JAG making it as a viable business.

    In my portfolio the gold/silver stocks I have in no particular order are ANV, KGC, PVG, AUMN, AXU, and SLW. The stocks that I am looking at buying more of are ANV, AXU, and SLW. I also want to buy more KGC but I am planning on doing it once the January 2016 LEAPS are released. I will buy a decent chunk of $5 strike price call options out to January 2016 and depending on pricing consider selling $10-15 calls of similar amount to lower my cost, but cap my upside.

    I am also looking at buying some of the other Juniors that are getting a lot of attention right now (e.g. VGZ, TRX, Lydian, San Gold, Veris Gold, etc.) I have found these through Sprott and Russ Winter, but I have not done my due diligence yet or purchased any.
    Sep 28, 2013. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    Stock will go to zero unless they manage to achieve some type of workout on the long term debt prior to fall 2014 or gold price goes back to $1,900 over next 6 months. They have liquidity to operate for next few quarters they need either of above two catalysts to make it long term.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    JAG has done a great job with their turnaround plan and have so far reduced cash cost per ounce significantly. The headwinds of the lower gold price (25% lower than their 2013 assumptions/guidance) may be too much. At this point, they have plenty of liquidity for the next few quarters (after drawing down the Renvest credit facility), but they are heading into the first set of long term debt coming due in fall 2014 (little more than a year). If gold price does not turn around they will have a hard time refinancing that or achieving a workout.
    Jul 15, 2013. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    Anand,

    I am not too familiar with GSS. I took a look at some of their presentations and reports and it looks like they have some good high grade deposits but are also struggling with operating costs.

    I am pretty focused on the above list. I have also started to add some AXU and AUMN which are silver miners with good reserves (stocks have been pummeled).

    I am still optimistic on JAG, and believe that management has done a good job so far with the turnaround plan. At this point the big question is what kind of restructuring they come up with for the convertible debt and what happens with the gold price. Gold at $1,300 vs $1,600-1,800 is killing them even with their new lower cash costs. I don't expect the cash costs to fall much more from this level. In terms of the cash cost sustainability, I think it is sustainable because their better production came from higher feed grades. Those higher feed grades are a result of their new mining strategy where they are mining a smaller area and having less cave ins and better supports.
    Jun 13, 2013. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    Anand,

    Yes I agree with you that the recent gold sell off is going to make it harder for Jaguar to deliver. The other companies I like in this sector are: SLW, FNV, ANV, PVG, KGC, EMXX, and SAND. I think KGC is probably the most undervalued, but it also has a higher cost structure than the others ($1100-1200 per ounce all in sustaining cost), similar to JAG. KGC has a better balance sheet and staying power, and I like the new management there as well.
    Apr 20, 2013. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    I am long and continue to think that it is a "buy" because I believe that the new management is going to deliver a turnaround. If the update leads you to another conclusion, that means I succeeded in writing an objective article so that people can decide for themselves minus the spin.
    Apr 12, 2013. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On Jaguar Mining's Q412 Earnings Report And Conference Call [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback. When I was trying to value Gurupi for this article I realized what a wildcard this asset was. I do think it would be helpful to explain these options better and look at some comparable market transactions so we can understand the potential impact.

    I have lost money on Jaguar also. In fact, at this point, everyone invested is underwater unless they purchased in early March. I think given the current market cap ($42M) and the potential value of the company ($200m-$500M)if they overcame their operating problems and debt issues, there is meaningful upside which makes it worth the downside risk of $0 per share (100% loss).
    Apr 12, 2013. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining - How Is The Turnaround Progressing? [View article]
    I have not contacted management and would not expect them to share material nonpublic information with me. However, they will probably have another conference call after Q4 earnings release and I expect them to finally provide some 2013 guidance and maybe some insight into their strategic plan.

    JAG is in a difficult position, but their short term liabilities are manageable and due to the long term debt maturity timeline, I do believe they have a genuine opportunity to turn this ship around. I also like the fact that new management has prior experience with exactly this kind of deal, the current CEO had similar success with a turnaround at Breakwater Resources, where the stock went under a $1 during the 2008-2009 crisis and was later sold for approximately $7 two years later to Nyrstar.
    Jan 25, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining - How Is The Turnaround Progressing? [View article]
    I mentioned those options in last month's article regarding why I place a $5.00 value on the stock. The problem is if the company is not operating from a sustainable cash flow positive position, their negotiations are undermined. Other companies would want to wait for them to fail so they can come in and buy the assets on the cheap. The new management has done a good job in making it clear that all options are on the table, but their primary focus is turning around the operations. Other opportunities should follow suit shortly thereafter.
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining - How Is The Turnaround Progressing? [View article]
    I was being conservative as mining companies do not always sell all of their production in the same quarter as it is mined. I do generally agree with your comments and hope you are correct.
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining Is Priced Like A Call Option [View article]
    These are all excellent comments.

    Point #2 regarding Paciencia is extremely uncertain in my opinion. I agree that Paciencia would need to be restarted in order to hit 150k in annual production. However, I have no insight why the Paciencia margins would improve significantly, other than that new managements' mining approach is indeed succeeding.

    Point #3 regarding the convertible debt obligations is semantics. Secured or unsecured if JAG is insolvent on a cash flow basis at the time the debt comes due, the creditors can push them into bankruptcy. The issue that they are unsecured, may involve some strategic moves during the bankruptcy proceeding, but the noteholders are still the largest creditors by an order of magnitude.

    I am Long and adding but you have to look at what can go wrong / not just what can go right.
    Dec 4, 2012. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining Is Priced Like A Call Option [View article]
    The possibility of a merger or buyout is not currently priced into the stock. That said, no potential acquirer would buy assets at $10.00 now if they could pick them up for pennies in a bankruptcy liquidation months later. The new CEO is in my opinion, taking the correct approach which is along the lines of - a merger could happen but we are not counting on it to deliver value to shareholders.
    Dec 4, 2012. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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