Seeking Alpha

Ben Homan

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Ben Homan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Research Frontiers: Shares Could Fall Substantially If Sky-High Expectations Are Not Met [View article]
    Very good and convincing article. I don't short but if I did, this would be one I'd go for.

    I also find it funny how on seemingly every short article, not just this one, all these new users with no written articles make their very first comments defending the company and crying "hatchet job".

    More power to you for publishing stuff like this - if I ever decide to short, I won't publish anything on it just to avoid the garbage comments. Keep up the good work.
    Jun 20 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Is A Hold With 12% Upside [View article]
    A 5% terminal value is pretty ambitious don't you think - GDP only grows at 2-3%..
    May 12 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTC Media - Textbook Contrarian Play [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification.

    Viewership in all of Russia has been declining slightly due to increased competition from small free to air channels over the last several years. Their CTC channel actually increased viewership in 2013, and Domashny decreased just .1%. Peretz has definitely been a problem and they state that they're still trying to find the correct audience for it so there definitely is concern there.

    The decline in Q1 I still believe to be temporary due to Olympic coverage going to state run channels however. We'll see how the rest of the year plays out.

    Impairment charges have been substantial from 2011-2013 - mostly attributable to writing down Peretz goodwill in 2011. Most of the other charges appear to be related to the regulatory change in how broadcasting licenses are amortized due to the upcoming transistion to digital.

    I am well aware of supply and demand, but while recessions may be prolonged, they usually don't last forever.

    I originally was putting together the info and writing the article when the price was between $8.50 and $8.90. Unfortunately, it didnt get released to non-Pro subscribers until after the large spike. If it dropped near 9 again, I'd probably add more but I agree - above $9.50 I'm hesitant to add more as I believe margin of safety is now less than 30%.

    I am be no means stating this is a 'sure' thing or anything close to it, just an interesting play that has some potential upside as a play going against the grain.

    Again, thanks for your comment P. Best of luck.

    Ben
    May 10 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Knicks Struggles Will Continue To Hinder MSG Growth [View article]
    Keubiko,

    Excellent reply. I haven't looked into the name at all before but I think I will after reading your comment. Just curious, do you have any position?

    Thanks,
    Ben
    May 9 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTC Media - Textbook Contrarian Play [View article]
    Perhaps I should have clarified a bit, I see this as an investment and not a trade. For me, I am not interested in the price trend - it has headed lower since the beginning of the year, presenting an opportunity for a patient/long-term investor.

    Regarding the Olympics, it is correct to expect revenues to increase, but again - referring to the section on risk - state-run competition front runs the best programming. It makes sense to me that advertisers would spend more to advertise on the channels that actually air the events.

    Because the Olympics are a one time issue, I see CTC's business being just fine - they have continued to be profitable and just recently beat estimates. I would say CTC is far from being called a speculative bet.

    Time will tell however, thanks for the comment.
    May 8 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investment Of The Week: Fire Sale Price For This Fallen Russian Media Star [View article]
    I had bought a small position around $8.90. Wish I had bought some more yesterday but I hadn't completed my full analysis. Looks like they were up in revenues and EPS, but down in terms of US$'s because of the devaluation of the ruble vs. the $. Guidance for the rest of the year towards their low end growth around 5%.

    Doesn't sound too bad, but I think the Ukraine situation and the possibility of continued/heightened sanctions still pose a serious risk at least in the short term.
    Apr 30 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investment Of The Week: Fire Sale Price For This Fallen Russian Media Star [View article]
    You're looking at the quarterly payout. Annualized it comes out to roughly 7%
    Apr 17 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Our Bank Of America Stock Price Headed Back To Single Digits? [View article]
    Also, correct me if I'm wrong - they had originally expected $3.7B in litigation charges, but reported $6B because they wanted to set aside additional money in case. Their CFO said in a conference call that although they set extra aside, there isn't any imminent settlement - in the end it could very well be less (or more).

    While the litigation expenses aren't good, I'm not sure that its quite as bad as it looks. But again, this is just upon a cursory examination.

    Disclosure: No position
    Apr 16 09:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investment Of The Week: Fire Sale Price For This Fallen Russian Media Star [View article]
    Informative article. Just started doing a little preliminary research on this today and wanted to bring one thing I saw to light. CJSC ABR Management owns roughly 25% of the shares, and CJSC is run by people from Bank Rossiya which is the bank currently facing sanctions for ties to Putin. Not that that is any huge negative, but to say that is free from state influence seems to be off the mark. I could be wrong though as again, this is just based off my initial look.

    Thanks for the article Ben
    Apr 4 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Erickson Air-Crane: Big Risk, Big Reward [View article]
    Thanks for the comment indytom. I did read both things you mentioned before writing the article - The latest conference call where Mr. Reider addresses the Afghan situation as well as the linked article. I don't disagree at all, Erickson could very well profit handsomely from continued/increasing Middle East growth. My main concern still revolves around the Evergreen acquisition itself. I am content to wait and see how things progress, I may miss the boat on a good run-up but I don't think I'd feel too bad. Again, thanks for the comment!
    Jul 1 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Erickson Air-Crane: Big Risk, Big Reward [View article]
    Thanks Richard

    You bring up a good point. It seems to be a strong fire season already from what I've seen in Arizona and Colorado, and who know how long Evergreen will pull in rev from the Afghanistan operations. I wish I was confident enough to take a position on way or the other, but there are just too many unanswered questions on both sides of the coin for me now.
    Jul 1 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelis - Dividend Payer With 30% Upside [View article]
    Thank you for your comments.

    Adam - Thanks for the insight. I only knew what I saw on paper, it is unfortunate that employees were apparently kept out of the loop - especially on such important matters as restructuring/plant closings.

    Robert - It is surprising that such a small company can cover such ground and be successful at it. I wouldn't be opposed to either option you mentioned - as long as the expanded correctly. I'm not sure what kind of regulations they would face buying internationally. They cannot supply their current US military grade products to their international buyers - only slightly 'dumbed down' versions. Not sure if buying a defense company in SA as you mention would get them around that barrier?
    Jun 30 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelis - Dividend Payer With 30% Upside [View article]
    Onecalicoat - Not sure if you saw it, but a writer for Forbes wrote a piece on Monday regarding possible consolidation in the defense industry. I'm not sure I agree with him when he says that XLS is probably too small to thrive as an independent entity, but going along with your takeover target comment, he believes Exelis to be the most attractive.
    Jun 26 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Erickson Air-Crane Set Up Nicely For Short Squeeze [View article]
    Thanks for the rebuttal. I'm doing research on EAC now and you provide some good insight.

    Just a quick edit to your first point. EAC acquired Evergreen Helicopters, which is owned by Evergreen International Aviation which is owned by Evergreen Holdings. Not that it makes any difference to the story - I like what I see so far.
    Jun 25 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelis - Dividend Payer With 30% Upside [View article]
    I wish I could have gotten in earlier as you did at that price. I still think there is healthy upside from today's price though. I found the same things that you did - a good patent portfolio (69 patents that I could find with the US Patent Office) and the promising bacteria killing technology.

    Thank you for your comment.
    Jun 19 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
19 Comments
12 Likes