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Ben Homan  

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  • Universal Insurance Holdings Is A Great Opportunity After The Sell-Off [View article]
    InsProf - agreed. P/TBV is something I'd include when I mentioned RV analysis. I don't disagree with anything you said. All the metrics look really high, even factoring in the growth. As I mentioned, I'm just watching for now. If it hits $10, I may be interested in digging deeper just to see what I can find.
    Nov 21, 2015. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Insurance Holdings Is A Great Opportunity After The Sell-Off [View article]
    You really shouldn't be using a DCF on financial companies. Its too hard to accurately identify working capital investment vs. capex and thus the company's reinvestment rate, etc. Accurately determining future cash flows becomes very difficult.

    DDM or RV are probably a better, somewhat more accurate approach to determining a fair price. I'm intrigued by the big selloff but think just due to sentiment alone and some of the names coming out short against this, it could head significantly lower in the short to medium term. If it goes sub-15, I'll start digging more into it but for now Im just adding it to my watch list.
    Nov 20, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Autopilot Lane Change: Likely To Be Unsafe At Any Speed [View article]
    No real view on the thesis here as I'm not involved in the stock and don't plan on being, but I felt compelled to point out that the first picture in which you added the arrows and designated the space around the vehicle as 5m completely wrecks the proportions of the image.

    Since the Tesla and the car on its back right are even bumper to bumper, that 5m distance you've placed reaching to about half the car behind it would mean the cars are over 30ft in length.

    I couldn't find that image on the Tesla site, but I'd bet the blue line shown is significantly less that the full 5m detection area. Not that that changes your argument, I just found that particular image to be misleading.
    Oct 23, 2015. 11:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Of The Day – Saturday, August 08, 2015 [View instapost]
    I got the audiobook version of this and have listened to it a couple times. Its good for defense as you say, for the non-marketing/sales people.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Kosher Trend Will Benefit This Cash-Rich Cow [View article]
    Won't buy into this again, made that mistake once. Management, as mentioned, is awful - using the company as their own piggy bank. The odds of them instituting meaningful, sustained buybacks/dividends or expansion are slim to none.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quotes For Life – Tuesday, July 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks for sharing Chris.
    Jul 14, 2015. 02:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: Debunking Today's Chief Compliance Officer Conspiracy [View article]
    Jun 2, 2015. 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Misunderstanding Lumber Liquidators' Announcement [View article]
    This certainly seems like a serious case of confirmation bias...

    "The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions"
    May 7, 2015. 02:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - I've Seen Cheaper [View article]
    Not hating here, but can you explain your rationale for leaning on a DCF given the extreme sensitivity to the various inputs and the general inability of humans to correctly predict the future (especially in something like an E&P that can vary greatly year to year)?

    Apr 7, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Is Evil [View article]
    You beat me to it!
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays: GE's Immelt may quit within the next year [View news story]
    Hoping this is true. He seems to always follow trends at the worst time. Building Capital business before the crisis, moving heavily into oil and gas before crude's recent drop. Could work out long term but doesn't look like the correct direction up to this point.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy UPS And FedEx As There Is A Clear Catalyst Ahead [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    Im involved with a smallish company (16M revs) that does a lot of shipping through UPS and I've had to deal with this whole dimensional weight issue and figuring out the effects on costs, etc.

    You seem to be pretty much spot on in what you've laid out. Originally, it was going to cost the company an extra 10% in shipping costs, but a new deal was renegotiated with UPS of which I am not privy. Im guessing UPS will still come out receiving at least 5% above last year.

    Also, in one of your comments above, you mentioned large shippers get discounts that individuals don't see. Again correct - the discount is based on rolling monthly average shipments. For the company I've alluded to, it amounts to a 62.5% discount.

    These are just my observations based on what I've seen directly - amounts could vary greatly depending on the company. I had actually been considering a position in UPS based on the change to DIM weighting and the impact on revenues, but have yet to act.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vectrus: Recent Spinoff With 40% Annualized Upside Over 1-3 Years [View article]
    Stable, profitable business with room to expand now that its operating independently. I think we'll slowly see the customer concentration improve over the next few years. It'll never be a fully diversified customer base - thats just the nature of the beast with A&D co.'s but I dont think it's something to worry about too much.

    Went long at $19.70 - regret not buying more.
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Alliant Techsystems Now [View article]
    Im still going to remain on the sidelines for now. ATK/Orbital ATK just has too much reliance on low margin govt contracts for me at this price. Also waiting to see how Orbital resolves the engine failure issue from their latest launch. I think it is a good business for sure, but for me there's not a big enough margin of safety. Interested in seeing how it plays out over the next year or two.

    However, I am very interested in the sporting group spinoff. I like some of the brands they own and am hoping there is a post-spin selloff so I can grab some cheap shares.

    Thanks for the article.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CTC Media: An Undervalued Company With Upside Opportunity, Currently Yielding 11% [View article]
    From the MagicDiligence article, 'Mark M from Illinois' made a good point in the comments...

    "...What incentive does CTCM have to make a $10.00 tender offer or for any purchaser to pay anything greater than the market cap when the bill becomes law? If the stock is at $1.00 after the law passes then a tender offer at $1.01 is best the possible option the since the alternative is zero."

    The bill has since been passed and there is still a bit of time until this issue has to be resolved, but I dont see much incentive to provide a fair deal to current shareholders. We'll see what happens. Best of luck.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment