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Ben Kramer-Miller

 
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  • Update: Alamos Gold Gets Its EIA Approved For Its Agi Dagi Project In Turkey
    Yesterday, 2:32 PM AGI Comment!

    Summary

    • Alamos Gold Announced that the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization signed off on the company's Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for its Agi Dagi Project.
    • This fits with my May projection that the company will bring the Agi Dagi Project into production in late 2016/early 2017--18 months after the adjacent Kirazli Project begins producing.
    • This is good news, especially given the company's Mulatos Project has been performing terribly with lower production and higher costs: this should shift emphasis onto the company's other assets.
  • Update: Asanko Gold Commences Construction Of Phase 1 Of Its Asanko Mine In Ghana
    Yesterday, 11:37 AM AKG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Asanko Gold has begun construction at its Asanko Mine: the company should begin commercial production in 2016.
    • This is in line with my expectations laid out in January.
    • While some of the upside is gone the shares still offer excellent value and gold price leverage, and I continue to be a buyer on weakness.
  • Update: Avnel Gold's Earnings And Pre-Feasibility Study Commencement
    Yesterday, 5:13 AM AVNZF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Avnel Gold reported its Q2 earnings and announced that it has commenced its pre-feasibility study for its Kalana Project.
    • The bullish thesis I put forth in April remains intact as management moves the Kalana Project forward as expected.
    • As I anticipated in April the stock has pulled back as investors have taken profits, but the shares have reached support making them extremely compelling for long-term investors.
  • Maximize Your Silver Exposure Through Junior Miners That Trade Like Mispriced Call Options
    Tue, Aug. 19 SIL, SSRI, BCEKF 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is dirt cheap and it has the potential to outperform gold.
    • Silver investors should look for ways to maximize their exposure by buying miners that are highly leveraged to the silver price for their optionality.
    • This is difficult since there aren't many primary silver miners and because these companies often have a lot of exposure to other metals.
    • However there are quality choices out there, and if you buy them while silver is cheap you can do incredibly well as the silver bull market continues.
  • WisdomTree Investments' International Expansion Efforts Will Almost Certainly Pay Off Big Time
     • Tue, Aug. 19 BLK, WETF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • WisdomTree has been actively pursuing international opportunities in 2014.
    • While these opportunities have yet to generate tangible returns, they are very real and have the potential to become a substantial cash-flow source for WisdomTree with very little risk.
    • If we couple this with my May thesis that the company offers good value, it is like getting a free option on international expansion, making the shares that much more.
  • Update: Gold Fields Sells Its Stake In Chucapaca To Its JV Partner, Retains A 1.5% NSR Royalty
    Tue, Aug. 19 ABX, BVN, HUMRF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold Fields continues to divest non-core assets in riskier jurisdictions with the sale of its 51% stake in Chucapaca - an exploration project in Peru - to JV partner Buenaventura.
    • This is in-line with my August 2013 thesis that the company is refocusing its business on cash-flow generating businesses in low-risk jurisdictions.
    • The company's transformation isn't over but it is getting there, and the stock remains compelling, particularly in a higher gold price environment.
  • Update: Orosur Mining's Earnings
    Tue, Aug. 19 OROXF Comment!

    Summary

    • Orosur Mining reported strong 2014 earnings results of $5.1 million as production costs came down.
    • The company's production figures surpassed my expectations.
    • The company also increased its reserves at San Gregorio.
    • The shares are inexpensive with a P/E ratio of 4.5 making them extremely compelling.
  • Introducing The Sprott Gold Miners ETF - A Superior Alternative To The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
    Tue, Aug. 19 GDX, SGDM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Last month Sprott Asset Management released its own gold miner ETF.
    • Unlike the more popular Market Vectors ETF, this fund overweights stocks that have low debt, high growth, and low costs.
    • These features make the fund categorically superior, and despite minor drawbacks, it should be your top choice if you don't have the time and the knowledge to pick your own.
  • Update: Minco Silver Buys 5% Of Gold Road Resources
    Mon, Aug. 18 ELKMF, MISVF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Minco Silver announced that it bought 5% of Gold Road Resources--an Australian junior gold miner with exploration property and a 3.8 million oz. resource in Western Australia.
    • Given the company's capital position it can easily afford to do this, although the motivation behind it is questionable.
    • I had not anticipated this when I analyzed the company back in June.
    • While this is unusual it doesn't impact the investment thesis given that the company can still afford to finance its Fuwan Project given its cash and its line of credit.
  • Update: Trevali Mining Earnings 'Weak' But Don't Impact The Long-Term Investment Thesis
    Mon, Aug. 18 TREVF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Trevali Mining reported weaker revenue and earnings on lower production at its Santander Project.
    • This should be a temporary measure as management is modifying Santander's operations.
    • Despite this weakness costs on a per-tonne basis are lower than I expected last August.
    • A pullback in zinc and in Trevali shares is warranted, but I haven't sold my position and I like the shares under $1.
  • Update: Mandalay Resources' Largest Shareholder To Divest 40 Million Shares - Expect Near-Term Weakness And A Buying Opportunity
    Mon, Aug. 18 MNDJF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • West Face Capital - Mandalay Resources' top shareholder - will divest 40 million shares through a secondary offering through BMO Capital Markets.
    • This will increase supply significantly for a stock that trades 720,000 shares per day.
    • With the stock trading near all-time highs and with metal prices weak, this could trigger a sell-off.
    • This was unanticipated in January, but I think it can provide an opportunity for long-term investors.
    • I am not a buyer at current levels, but I am expecting weakness that could lead to a buying opportunity, and I am a buyer under $0.90/share.
  • Update: Seabridge Gold's Q2 Earnings Support The Long-Term Investment Thesis
    Mon, Aug. 18 SA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Seabridge Gold continues to develop the KSM Project as the environmental assessment was approved by the British Colombian Government.
    • Seaboard's management has become near-term bullish on gold which is a primary topic in the company's Q2 Report to Shareholders.
    • These developments fit my October investment thesis, which is that Seabridge is a gold leverage play; the first point in particular eliminates a great deal of regulatory risk.
    • The stock has been strong since BC's environmental assessment approval, and it might be time for a pullback.
  • Update: TriMetals Mining Reports Q2 Earnings
    Mon, Aug. 18 TMIBF, TMIAF Comment!

    Summary

    • TriMetals Mining continues to focus on exploration and metallurgy at its Gold Springs Project.
    • Management has reduced G&A Costs over the quarter which means the company is preserving capital.
    • My bullish thesis remains intact as the market cannot get over the loss of the Malku Khota Project.
  • Update: Aura Minerals Earnings - Slashes Costs And Generates A Profit In Q2, Investors Shrug
    Sun, Aug. 17 ARMZF Comment!

    Summary

    • Aura Minerals reported incredibly strong second quarter results as costs came down at the company's San Andres Project.
    • The company turned a $0.02/share profit for the quarter (this is a $0.12/share stock).
    • The numbers from San Andres blew past my expectations, the market will re-rate this hated stock soon enough.
  • Update: Great Western Minerals Reports Strong Q2 Earnings
    Sun, Aug. 17 GWMGF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Great Western Minerals reported a 31% increase in sales for its Less Common Metals (LCM) unit: losses declined.
    • The company released a robust feasibility study for its Steenkampskraal Project.
    • While I didn't anticipate such strong figures from LCM, these figures show the strength in the company's downstream operation make the potential synergies with the upstream operation stronger.
    • I remain convinced that this is a good speculative stock for rare earth element investors.
  • Update: Luna Gold's Q2 Earnings Weren't So Bad
    Sun, Aug. 17 LGCUF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Luna Gold broke even in Q2 as the company's production declined on heavy rainfall.
    • The company was forced to process lower grade stock-piled ore which pushed costs higher.
    • As I suggested in my article last week, this shouldn't be a regular occurrence and the company should benefit from its strengthened partnership with Sandstorm Gold.
    • Shares are in the doldrums at multi-year lows: maybe the bottom hasn't been reached yet but the risk/reward is favorable.
  • Book Review: Dimitri Speck's The Gold Cartel
    Sat, Aug. 16 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Dimitri Speck's The Gold Cartel provides readers with an in-depth analysis of the gold market and the thesis that it is manipulated.
    • Speck provides conclusive statistical evidence of this manipulation with a qualitative explanation as to why it is taking place.
    • Investors interested in the gold market looking for a very strong case supporting market intervention are urged to read this book--especially the first part.
  • Update: Northern Graphite Reports A High Spherical Graphite Yield Making The Shares More Compelling
    Sat, Aug. 16 NGPHF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Northern Graphite reported that about half of its large flake graphite has a 50% spherical graphite yield.
    • This confirms my claim that Northern Graphite is a good stock for investors looking for high-value graphite.
    • However, the recent spike in the share price leaves that stock vulnerable to a pullback from a technical standpoint.
    • Fundamentally, however, this news probably increases the value of the company's graphite deposit on a per-tonne basis, which increases the Bissett Creek Deposit's value.
    • The stock is ultimately a good one to own on a pullback.
  • Update: Osisko Gold Royalties Learns The Results Of The Updated Reserve Estimate For Canadian Malartic
    Sat, Aug. 16 OKSKF Comment!

    Summary

    • Osisko Gold Royalties' primary asset is a 5% NSR royalty on Canadian Malartic owned by Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold.
    • The latter two companies updated their reserve estimates for the mine to roughly 9 million ounces.
    • At 600,000 ounces of production per year, this is enough production for 15 years, or slightly better than I expected.
    • Osisko Gold Royalties is still a new company so it is speculative, but on a price to cash-flow basis, it is cheap among its peers, making it compelling.
  • Update: St. Andrew Goldfields' Earnings
    Sat, Aug. 16 STADF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • St. Andrew Goldfields reported a small profit as the company's higher cost operations produce less.
    • The company's main driver going forward is its low-cost Taylor Project, which should be in production next year.
    • Production costs were in line with my estimates but below my estimates ex-Taylor.
    • The company is still highly undervalued and gold bulls should consider taking a position at the current price.
  • Update: Argonaut Gold Is Better Off Than The Company's Q2 Financials
    Fri, Aug. 15 SSRI, ARNGF Comment!

    Summary

    • Argonaut Gold announced Q2 earnings came in at $2 million with $13.5 million in operating cash-flow and $40.9 million in revenues.
    • The figures are weaker than expected but the company is ramping up its operations.
    • As I expected production would be weak but increase as the year goes on.
    • Investors should also keep in mind that the company's project pipeline is extensive and not reflected in these numbers.
    • I continue to like Argonaut Gold as its share price remains depressed.
  • Update: MAG Silver's Q2 Earnings
    Fri, Aug. 15 MVG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • MAG Silver reported a Q2 loss of $2.1 million for the second quarter.
    • This money went to good use as the Juanicipio resource is considerably larger now.
    • This fits my November thesis that MAG Silver will create value for silver bulls.
    • Shares are up 65% since then and while value has been created interested investors should wait for a pullback.
  • Update: J.C. Penney's Earnings - Enthusiasm May Wane Quickly As Problems Persist
    Fri, Aug. 15 JCP 22 Comments

    Summary

    • J.C. Penney reported a quarterly loss of $176 million on revenues of $2.8 billion.
    • The company is growing its sales but it is still saddled with debt, which is a problem I anticipated.
    • The company has thus far been able to avoid more dilution, which was another prediction I made earlier this year.
    • The company remains vulnerable in a fiercely competitive and tepid retail environment. Proceed with caution.
  • Update: Rio Alto Mining's Q2 Earnings
    Fri, Aug. 15 RIOM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Rio Alto reported earnings of $15.2 million and operating cash-flow of $22.4 million.
    • This reflects strong production figures, which I pointed out a month ago, but the company's long-term outlook depends on its long-term La Arena mine plan, which has yet to be updated.
    • With the stock price rising recently despite my concerns, I would continue to be cautious in this name.
  • Update: Pan American Silver's Q2 Earnings Disappoint As Costs Remain High
    Fri, Aug. 15 PAAS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Pan American Silver reported a slight net loss of $5.7 million, operating cash-flow of $48.7 million on revenue of $200.8 million.
    • Tepid growth, high costs, and dormant assets continue to hold the stock back.
    • As I argued last July, the stock will generate leverage to a rising silver price but it is dead money otherwise.
    • A weak share price will hopefully incite management to make an acquisition using its large cash hoard, and I think the stock is interesting on weakness.
  • Update: Sandstorm Gold's Q2 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 14 SAND 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Sandstorm Gold reported a profit of $3 million and operating cash-flow of $9.4 million on revenues of $13.2 million.
    • Slightly lower revenues are a result of lower gold prices offset by higher attributable production despite lower production at Aurizona, Santa Elena, and Black Fox.
    • These figures don't reflect the true potential of Sandstorm's streaming assets that I have pointed out in the past.
    • Given this, and given other, more recent developments, I am positive on the stock and want to be a buyer at around $5 - $5.50.
  • Update: SilverCrest Mines Earnings - Excellent Beneath The Surface
    Thu, Aug. 14 SVLC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • SilverCrest Mines reported Q2 earnings of $1.3 million, cash-flow of $3.1 million on revenues of $7.7 million.
    • This represents a substantial decline as the company's Santa Elena Mine transitions from open pit to underground operations.
    • The transition was smoother than expected reflecting management's ability to execute as I've pointed out in the past.
    • The shares are slightly overvalued but they are worth accumulating on pullbacks.
  • TrueGold Is Fully Financed And Has 44% Upside From Here
     • Thu, Aug. 14 RVREF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • TrueGold's Karma Project is being constructed, and it should be in production by the end of next year.
    • Thanks to the recent financing deal with Franco Nevada and Sandstorm Gold TrueGold doesn't have to worry about financing.
    • Despite the fact that there are many royalty and streaming claims on the project it is still valuable even at lower gold prices.
    • The shares trade at just a slight premium to the cash the company has on its balance sheet, and added to the value of the project it has significant upside.
  • Update: Chaparral Gold's Q2 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 14 CRRGF Comment!

    Summary

    • Chaparral Gold's Q2 earnings reflect the company's fiscal conservatism with a loss of just $0.55 million.
    • The company is bringing its Gemfield Project forward on the permitting front while concurrently pursuing "strategic alternatives" in order to maximize shareholder value.
    • The former point speaks to the company's realistic path towards production of a low-cost gold mine in Nevada, a central point of my investment thesis from last month.
    • I still consider this to be a compelling investment with near-term cash-flow potential and leverage to the gold price.
  • Update: Iamgold's Q2 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 14 IAG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • IAMGOLD reported a second quarter profit of $8.8 million and operating cash-flow of $96.8 million on revenues of $288 million.
    • The company brought down production costs to $1,136/oz. which is great news considering that production costs were an issue for the company last year.
    • As I predicted last September the company's niobium mine - Niobec - is leading the way in terms of profitability.
    • Going forward the company's costs should come down even more as it began production at its low-cost Westwood Project.
    • After a long period of under-performance IAMGOLD shares are set to trade higher assuming the gold price holds up, but it is still risky if the gold price declines.
  • Update: Klondex Mines' Q2 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 14 KLNDF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Klondex Mines reports net income of $4.4 million and cash-flow of $14.2 million on revenue of $36.4 million.
    • The company's second quarter was the first of full production, and as I expected the Fire Creek Project is highly profitable.
    • While the current mine plan is short, Klondex's Fire Creek Project has excellent exploration potential making this a compelling speculation stock.
  • Update: Silver Wheaton's Earnings Decline On Lower Production, Silver Prices
    Thu, Aug. 14 SLW 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Wheaton reported earnings of $63.5 million on revenues $148.6 million.
    • Silver equivalent production fell by 4% to 8.4 million ounces.
    • This reflects weakness that I didn't anticipate in January, although a short-term setback in growth shouldn't perturb long term investors.
    • The stock will likely pull back, especially since it has been rising while silver has been weak, but the stock is worth buying on a pullback.