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Ben Kramer-Miller  

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  • Romarco Minerals Has De-Risked The Haile Project And Is A 'Buy' On Weakness [View article]
    Sure thing, hope you got in at a good price!
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On My 2015 Gold And Mining Stock Calls [View article]
    In addition to the three that I mentioned in December I came up with another list that unfortunately the SA editors rejected given market-cap/liquidity issues. Rye Patch Gold and Avnel Gold were on that list, and I still think these are compelling stories. Silver Wheaton is also compelling. I've put together research on all of these at miningWEALTH.com.
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    Despite the fact that this signals AGs break with its "pure silver" approach this is a quality company with good long term prospects. I don't know about a second bid so I wouldn't rush in to Silver Crest shares , but it is clear that the AG guys want an asset that can make money at today's prices. I only wish they hadn't exposed themselves to the Sandstorm stream, although this is one of the better ones that doesn't dramatically impact the economics of the mine.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Sprott Physical Platinum And Palladium Trust Is The Best PGM Bullion Fund [View article]
    This data can be found at the SPPP website:
    http://bit.ly/15FyH37
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    Yeah. I've been bearish PMs but now everybody is bearish. Even the bulls are calling for $1,000 or lower so it feels like a good time to buy.
    Jul 27, 2015. 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On My 2015 Gold And Mining Stock Calls [View article]
    I'll be frank. I'm trying to reduce the number of companies I'm following and I don't make much of ultra-high grade discoveries. I also don't own any Australian companies given relative ease of access to management and information. So I probably won't be covering this company. You are, of course, encouraged to do so yourself if you truly believe in the story.
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On My 2015 Gold And Mining Stock Calls [View article]
    I am a bottom-up investor and don't really look to much at ratios or indexes. Also I prefer to invest in smaller companies. Despite the weakness in the HUI I believe the better run mid-tiers offer superior value and are better-run than most majors in the HUI.
    Jul 26, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On My 2015 Gold And Mining Stock Calls [View article]
    Gremlin,
    I've liked this company in the past and just felt like the stock got ahead of itself. Admittedly I was early in getting out of the stock (in at $0.31, out at ~$0.75) and these guys have outperformed my expectations while benefiting from the weak CAD. I'm not an aggressive buyer here but this is definitely one to have on your radar.
    Jul 25, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On My 2015 Gold And Mining Stock Calls [View article]
    I never said it did. But in the near-term markets are a voting machine, and right now investors want scarce yield. This is why stocks like KO and PG are trading at such absurdly high valuations. Also note that when I say "yield" with respect to a company I mean earnings/cf or expected earnings/cf yield, not necessarily a dividend yield.

    So these assets are overvalued based on the misperception that scarce yield is highly valuable--which of course is nonsense and the kind of logic we'd expect near the top of a bubble. But the fact is that this misperception can carry on for quite some time. Note also that the Fed's manipulation efforts in the bond market spawns further speculation in low-yield assets: if you can borrow at 1% and buy a stock trading at 30X earnings you're doing fine so long as that company can keep generating those returns despite its absurd valuation.

    Until sentiment shifts away from these absurdly valued financial assets there's no reason why we can't see continued strength in stocks and bonds vs. weakness in gold. Doesn't mean this reflects fundamentals, though, and the market disconnects can only last for so long.
    Jul 25, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    Honestly I don't. But they bought Callinan which was a smart move so it might be a worthwhile investment if you don't mind the heavy exposure to economically sensitive commodities.
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    Yeah I get it. But the problem is you can't buy a silver stream big enough to be a major asset in SLWs portfolio. SLW has the highest NEV of any royalty or streamer yet the fewest streams of the major companies. I don't believe this is an accident. It takes more work to manage more assets well. Look at the millions spent on DD for Salobo. If you're making a deal that will only generate a few hundred million in cash-flow over 20 years it isn't worht it to do so much work. So you can do less work per assets and manage more assets, but you run the risk of making a mistake. Silver Wheaton hasn't made big mistakes to my knowledge (maybe they're overdue!) and I don't think Salobo will be the first. If gold stays depressed and the 1% inflation erodes cash-flow for decades then yes, the deal will look mediocre, and even then it will generate bond-like returns (not a terrible scenario if godl isn't going up). Otherwise this is going to be a phenomenal deal, and the de-risking aspects of it that I have pointed out will be highly prized in an up-trending gold market.

    As for PPP you know I'm not a fan anymore. I thought it was less bad at $3 and $1,250 gold but now they aren't making money when they easily could be by just shutting down BF. Maybe I'l be proven wrong, but these guys screwed up big.
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    II,
    My thinking on this stock has been too schizophrenic since on the one hand they are cheap on a p/cf basis and have the advantage of the streaming model and on the other hand their track-record is somewhat questionable. At $15/oz. Ageq SLW makes ~$11/oz. and produces ~45M Ageq so you're at maybe at an NEV/ocf ratio of 12...not bad for a royalty/streamer! I know SAND is cheaper, but SLW's team has an impeccable track-record of making quality investments regardless of what people are saying about the Salobo deal.
    One other thing I'd keep in mind is that the Black Fox stream looks vulnerable. Why PPP continues to operate this disaster at $1100 gold is beyond me, especially since the stream shaves maybe $100/oz. off the realized gold price.

    If you're looking for a company that isn't expensive, that can survive the final capitulation to $850 gold and $12 silver (I hope!) and generates a lot of income from extremely high quality assets buy Silver Wheaton. I'd rather buy a high-quality, low-opex miner than SAND at this point, but that isn't to say that there isn't opportunity here.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    You're right they do share mining risk. But "bankruptcy" doesn't mean the mine is shut down. The worst performing mines will be shut down and the better performing ones will be handed to the bond holders. ABX has debt obligations far in the future so Iwouldn't worry about that.

    Note that I emphasize that in the Salobo deal that SLW foudn an asset with relatively low mining risk: it is a low-opex asset and a cornerstone asset to a major global commodity producer. If Vale goes bust Salobo will keep producing.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    Margaret, so they overpaid for the San Dimas stream at $175 million? They have grown their ocf/share, their ageq/share and have outperformed the SPX, GLD, SLV, TSYs, metal miners of any commodity, Royal Gold--the only other streamer with a track record that goes back far enough for a comparison, and virtually every global stock market excluding those where we've seen hyperinflation since the IPO.

    If you like "cheap" streaming deals just take a look at what Sandstorm and FNV have been going through in BF this past year.
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Idea: Buy Silver Wheaton Part 2, Salobo [View article]
    I tend to agree--$850 gold and $12 silver are levels I'm targeting but I'm a fundamental investor, not a trader...so what do I know?
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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