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Ben Mountifield  

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  • Time To Profit From The Decline Of The Japanese Yen [View article]
    It is my opinion that during 2013 the inflation deflation (or rather disinflation) debate will get resolved decisively in favor of inflation. The system is primed with sufficient liquidity, central banks just need to find ways to ignite money velocity, and I believe that that’s what we will see. We are about to enter a period of stagflation, i.e. high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth (likely negative when adjusted for the real rate of inflation).

    The outcome will be inflation & investors need to prepare for it
    Dec 20, 2012. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Goldman Sachs Is Wrong About The Gold Bull Market Ending In 2013 [View article]
    Hi User,

    You make an important point and it’s one I made recently in an article entitled “Why gold is money”, see here:

    Politicians and central bankers seem to believe that the pain associated with a recession can be avoided. Their plan, therefore, is to avoid outright default and instead inflate away as much of the debt as they can via a policy of currency debasement/ financial repression, which is a form of tacit default…

    To quote Ayn Rand, “You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality”.

    Dec 14, 2012. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Boom To Bust: How Credit Shaped The Past And How It Will Shape The Future [View article]
    Hi, I don’t think I’m labeling private sector debt as public debt. I’m simply pointing out that in 2008 the private sector reached a point at which it could no longer lever up. Since then (particularly in the US) it has begun the process of debt repayment. The problem is the government/ public sector is still taking on new debt at a rapid rate. However ultimately they too will reach a point at which they can no longer lever up. When that happens we will begin the second phase of the debt deleveraging process, and only when that has been completed (which will take around 7 years) can we begin a new cycle of prosperity.
    Aug 30, 2012. 03:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of Paper Money And The Reemergence Of A Global Gold Standard [View article]
    Whether or not you believe that we will one day return to some form of gold standard, depends to a large degree on whether you believe that fiat (paper) money lies at the root of the current economic busts.

    My contention is that it does. Money should perform three roles: First it must act as a medium of exchange, second it should act as a unit of account, and lastly it should provide a store of value. The problem with fiat money is that it can be printed without limit, and therefore it doesn’t provide a good long-term store of value.

    For example, since the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 the US dollar has lost 96% of its value, since 1980 it has lost nearly 64% of its value.

    To my mind there is a clear link between fiat money, the supply of money and credit (see debt supercycle), and the huge boom and bust we are now experiencing. This process is best described by the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

    Returning to sound money, i.e. money that is backed by gold or a basket of commodities, isn’t the whole solution, but it is a large part of it. Another part of the solution involves moving away from fractional reserve banking to full reserve banking.
    Aug 20, 2012. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment