Comments on Ben Shuleva's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/ben-shuleva/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-212827 212827 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:09:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-212072 212072 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 02:24:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211975 211975 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:03:39 -0400
I don't especially have the time to do some LT analysis on AAPL right now, but I could definitely see the stock getting cheaper over the ST. The rally that we saw from 147 I believe was a bit premature. The questions still remain with GM, falling ASP in iPod and Mac, etc. I wasn't entirely sold on Q3, especially with guidance on gross margin.

I'm guessing I'll piss off more Apple enthusiast, but I think we are going lower, at least until the "new product" is unveiled. At 33X earnings in this economic environment I'm not buying. I think it will get cheaper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211934 211934 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:47:57 -0400
I wonder what your thoughts are now after the report? Do you think that AAPL is a buy or a sell at this point? The stock was down to $146.35 this morning, and then rocketed back up to close at about $162 a share! What a ride!

Do you think AAPL's stock price is going up or down in the near-term? What are your long-term projections, as well.

Thanks for your input.

Sincerely,
Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211681 211681 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:10:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211682 211682 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:10:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211450 211450 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:14:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211264 211264 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:09:29 -0400
"I think AAPL is going to sell off due to guidance."

This is the guy:
seekingalpha.com/user/...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211103 211103 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:20:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211086 211086 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:02:43 -0400
"Ben, I'll enjoy watching you lose money on your AAPL short."

signed by JW, PhD.

Priceless.

Ok, enough for me. Bye!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211081 211081 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:58:15 -0400
Now post one more time, and you'll be done.

Pezzo d'imbecille perditempo.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211080 211080 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:56:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211070 211070 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:45:02 -0400
Thanks

Gicho]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211051 211051 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:29:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211047 211047 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:24:05 -0400
I look forward to reading your posts in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211037 211037 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:16:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211031 211031 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:13:22 -0400
EPS
1.19 vs 1.08 - realize that GM of 34.8 included a one time 70 bps contribution SO at GM of 34.1 (only 40 bps above projection) EPS would have been 1.14.

iPod
11 mil vs 10.1 - I'll admit unit sales were much higher than I expected but ASP declined significantly enough for iPod rev to fall 8% year over year.

Mac
25 mil vs 24 mil - Pretty much in line with my prediction.

Rev
7.46 vs 7.51 - Will be tough to find anyone closer than this.

Emotions
Well a lot of you have sealed this for me.

My summarizing statement was:

"Apple will beat their $1.00 in EPS and they just might beat my 1.08 EPS but the stock will get beaten down based on the specifics of their earnings, the non-rational emotional high that a lot of Apple investors are on with the 3G iPhone, and guidance that, while a bit more aggressive than in the past, is still considerably lower than the street."

I'd say it was pretty on par.

No need to call anyone out, we all get it wrong sometimes, I really appreciate those who gave constructive criticism and helped guide my estimates, to those who didn't, I'd advise it in the future.

Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211024 211024 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:07:57 -0400
margin compression in the future will be a problem (good call), even if GM was quite good this time

P.O. said

"not looking for a margin so high that it creates an “umbrella” for competitors. Beyond September, expect GM about 30% in 2009."

Ouch.


(JW, go to bed, mum is calling, time to go back in fantasy world ... you'll have another bad day tomorrow, eh eh eh)

Nel frattempo succhiamelo.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211019 211019 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:01:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211017 211017 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:59:17 -0400
I believe this summarize my view quite well.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-211002 211002 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:43:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210999 210999 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:38:57 -0400
But the most important, the mentality of the AAPL investors, that never fail. But I feel it will be short lived. I intend to take advantage of that.

Greetings and see you next time.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210982 210982 Win, > > Thanks for your input. > > I agree that China and India are HUGE growth markets for Apple and > the halo effect from the iPod/iPhone will start being seen especially > in Mac sales in the future. It will be interesting just how much > Apple includes this is their guidance for Q4. > > With regards to the iPhone, I doubt Apple would guide for any iPhone > revenue coming from China/India in Q4. In the past we have seen > Apple guide conservative, ESPECIALLY in emerging markets (China, > India, etc.) and I wouldn't expect them to deviate from that trend > in such a dramatic fashion. If they do, I agree, it could be an > upward surprise in guidance which would be a BIG boost for shares. > > > > When I initiated my short opinion APPL was above 174 and currently > it is trading below 163 (7% drop) while over that same time the S&P > is up 1%. I didn't expect this extent of negative movement prior > to earnings, especially with positive movement in the market, and > at this point I think sentiment going into earnings is pretty negative. > If you followed my advice in the short up to this point, I would > slim down that position to lock in a portion of your gains. I still > think my projections are good, they just looked better when Apple > was trading at a higher multiple.]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:15:07 -0400

On Jul 21 12:32 PM Ben S. wrote:

> Win,
>
> Thanks for your input.
>
> I agree that China and India are HUGE growth markets for Apple and
> the halo effect from the iPod/iPhone will start being seen especially
> in Mac sales in the future. It will be interesting just how much
> Apple includes this is their guidance for Q4.
>
> With regards to the iPhone, I doubt Apple would guide for any iPhone
> revenue coming from China/India in Q4. In the past we have seen
> Apple guide conservative, ESPECIALLY in emerging markets (China,
> India, etc.) and I wouldn't expect them to deviate from that trend
> in such a dramatic fashion. If they do, I agree, it could be an
> upward surprise in guidance which would be a BIG boost for shares.
>
>
>
> When I initiated my short opinion APPL was above 174 and currently
> it is trading below 163 (7% drop) while over that same time the S&P
> is up 1%. I didn't expect this extent of negative movement prior
> to earnings, especially with positive movement in the market, and
> at this point I think sentiment going into earnings is pretty negative.
> If you followed my advice in the short up to this point, I would
> slim down that position to lock in a portion of your gains. I still
> think my projections are good, they just looked better when Apple
> was trading at a higher multiple.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210968 210968 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:02:26 -0400
EPS was great coming in at 1.19, but once again guidance kills the stock. 11 million iPod sales is very impressive to me, I'm guessing their ASP took a big hit with shuffles being a larger percentage of mix. Rev, Mac and iPhone in line with what I expected.

Lets all listen in to the call. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210950 210950 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:41:24 -0400
I'm not sure what all the "shame on you", name calling, and other such shenanigans is all about. As an investor, be intelligent, and make your own informed decisions by taking in information (including this analysis) and putting it to use in forming your own opinion... without denouncing someone else's. We get to see how accurate Ben's predictions were in about 30 minutes... and I appreciate him putting forth the time and effort to voice an educated decision... whether I agree with him or not.

As one investor to another (well, Ben, you're actually more of a trader than I am) - I respect what you've presented and it's been thought-provoking.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210913 210913 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:56:59 -0400
Are you being serious, or are you joking? Don't act like my analysis is moving this $145 billion company's stock. If it is, I will proudly pat myself on the back...please remember this site is essentially a blog. It is not unethical, there is a disclosure which details my holdings, my bias, and anyone that reads this should know to take my analysis with a grain of salt, just like you should do with anyone's opinion.

Shame on me? Sorry Mom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210895 210895 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:36:15 -0400 Ben, I think what you're doing as an analyst is unethical. You can't own a stock and advise investors to buy or sell it. There's a conflict of interest here. Few years ago the SEC went after such analysts. Regardless of how accurate your analysis is, you should not mention Apple until you've sold all your stocks and have no interest in it. You're making money in a shameful way.
Shame on you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210866 210866 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:00:34 -0400 July 17th: $174
July 21st: $163
$11 per share profit thus far.
Nice short, let's see how low it dips tomorrow.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210843 210843 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:34:41 -0400
here's my calculation:
spreadsheets.google.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210748 210748 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:58:33 -0400
1. Agree with your position on Apple not including China and India I Phone revenue until deals are through. Additionally, due to supply problems there may not be very many I Phones sold in those two countries in Q3.

2. Maintain that conditions are ripe for a pop. Sentiment is bad.

3. We are at the 38% retracement of the gain from the post January crash to the May highs. Rough calculation: 190 - 115 = 75; 0.62 * 75= 46.5; 115+46.5=161.5.]]>