Ben Young

One Trillion Dollar Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Now Ticking

It almost doesn't matter how serious the swine flu danger is. The massive inflation in media outlets all clamoring for the newest/scariest "if it bleeds it leads" story will guarantee that there will be a significant reaction. The key thing holding back the telecommuting is the baby boomer generation (of which I'm a "member"). They are still unconvinced that people they can't see will work. Someday there will be a swine flu style tipping point that will validate/actualize the potential order of magnitude (deflationary) cost efficiency that telecommuting represents.


On Apr 26 07:36 PM cameroni wrote:

> Scary stuff indeed.
>
> Nice work Tyler. Don't know if I will sleep so good tonight.
>
> My own worry about Commercial Real Estate revolves around this weeks
> headline story about a possible flu pandemic. We do not yet have
> all the facts but if this thing is really killing 5 to 6% of all
> the people it infects then commercial space will take a huge hit
> as companies encourage workers to start telecommuting and staying
> at home. A major pandemic could freeze up the whole economy for
> the better part of a year as there is no vaccine available yet and
> producing one in quantity takes 6 to 8 months. (World Health Organization
> comment).
>
> Further, any space (and business) that depends on revenue derived
> from gatherings of large numbers of people, like stadiums, theaters,
> restaurants office buildings etc will take a huge hit if people shun
> them fearing disease transmission.
>
> This could readily be the straw that breaks the camels back and sends
> Commercial Real Estate tumbling in value. A trigger. It remains to
> be seen how this will play out but we won't have long to wait. We
> should hear as early as Monday or Tuesday how dangerous this swine
> flu is and know what contgagion risks we face.
>
> This is a good time to keep posted to the nightly news.
>
> Cam