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Benign Brodwicz

 
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  • When Will Confidence Finally Fail? [View article]
    Current forecast is for confidence to fail in "several quarters." Did not forecast recession in 2011, just depression.
    Dec 20 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Confidence Finally Fail? [View article]
    Sean,
    I like your observation that an upward acceleration of unemployment signifies a recession and collapse of confidence. This is consistent with adaptation level theory and convexity of the utility function: losses are discounted more heavily than gains. Hence, negative skewness in the distributions of asset prices as well.

    The main idea, that we gauge our wellness relative to recent adaptation levels, is essentially beyond dispute. My unemployment based moving average inverts generally with a month or two of the onset of recession (as defined by NBER--questionable). But similar measures based on income or product behave similarly.

    When things begin to slip below what we're used to, confidence fails, and there is a follow-on effect that accelerates the negative spiral.
    Dec 17 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shouldn't the Fed Write Off the U.S. Treasury Debt It Holds? [View article]
    I agree that MMT describes the basically nonsensical but totally pliable fiat money system currently in place around the world.

    what MMT proponents miss (or just don't like to talk about) is that the fiat money system is manipulated by a financial ruling class to its own benefit. what prevails makes no more sense than the reasonable proposals of Jamie Galbraith et al. to use government money to put people back to work.

    having the Fed forgive the debt would work for me, so long as the Social Security bonds are paid.
    Dec 17 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shouldn't the Fed Write Off the U.S. Treasury Debt It Holds? [View article]
    I don't consider WWII, which was the ultimate solution to the Great Depression-era debt crisis, a good solution. a much quicker one would have been to write down the bad debt as good accounting used to require, and start over again without a world war. recall that it was the heinous reparations requirements on the Germans after WWI that sent them down the war path.

    you are blind to history, dividend_growth, like every sucker who believes the mythology of neoclassical economics
    Dec 17 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data: Positive 'Animal Spirits' For First Time Since 2007 [View article]
    Stanley,
    Don't mistake my "animal spirits" analysis: we are in a depression, but our habitual reliance on the unemployment rate as an indicator of general economic wellness suggests that survey measures of confidence will improve, and that the acceleration downward of real incomes and output that characterize a recession and collapse of confidence will not happen for several quarters.
    cheers,
    benign
    Dec 17 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Rising Confidence Levels Be Sustained Long-Term? [View article]
    Mikesss,
    The recession prediction (as regular readers know) is based on a logistic model that has predicted the last two cycles (2001 and 2007-?) well ahead of the consensus.
    Benign
    Mar 9 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Policy Is a Failure of Effective Demand [View article]
    Thank you all for your comments. I would like to point out that you can't have it both ways, that the government is either already redistributing income toward rough equality, or it's not, and in spite of the redistribution that is taking place, the distribution is way more unequal than most people consider fair. The latter is the reality. The "paradox" is that marginal tax rates on the rich have declined while their share of total income taxes paid has gone up. I assume everyone reading this blog can work that one out. (The distribution has become much, much more unequal.)

    We should all give as much as we can to those who are hurting. I spent the night last night at a homeless shelter, helping out. I urge everyone to do what they can.

    And yes, this government won't solve the problem, it's broken. I like the comment that it's always darkest before the dawn, and the one that suggested that social evolution will take us into a better world.

    Also recommended reading on intention is Dean Radin's, "The Conscious Universe."

    Imagine social justice!
    Feb 10 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Bush Tax Cuts Expiring: What Now? [View article]
    Actually, I have a fairly significant typo in this. I really would like to leave all the lower middle income tax cuts in place, and simply raise top marginal tax rates a bunch.
    Feb 3 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Deflation: What's the Solution? [View article]
    Of course we always have an industrial policy through our tax and tariff laws. I am suggesting that fiscal "stimulus" should be targeted at supporting the welfare of the people directly, not in more pork for the well-connected, or more war.
    Nov 4 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Deflation: What's the Solution? [View article]
    Disclosure: I have been an independent for a long, long time.

    PastTense gets it right. The American government provides trillions of dollars of welfare to the rich, and very little to the poor. Anyone who denies this truth after the events of the past year is ignorant indeed.

    The solution is to reverse that pattern. Also, to quit stupid wars and "nation-building" (destroying) efforts abroad while our own nation is falling apart.

    It is my hope that the "screw thy neighbor" attitudes expressed here will become so socially unacceptable within a few years that people mouthing them will be shunned as if they had the plague.
    Nov 3 10:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus Are Both Fool's Games [View article]
    see also:

    animalspiritspage.blog...

    come on, seeking alpha, when I ask you to link to something as a reference, please do so
    Aug 24 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus Are Both Fool's Games [View article]
    logical: you have a valid debating point but not much more, I would suggest. by the time the deflation is done, before an inflation or hyperinflation gets going, the worst debtors have lost their assets if their loans were secured, and have lost their credit rating and any ability to borrow for seven years if they defaulted on unsecured debts.

    look around you, bro, at what's happening now. the time for the inflation option came and went, it failed to materialize when we needed it.

    it's a fool's bargain. what they want now is for the investment banks to be able to pull off another round of mass expropriation of the American people with their carry-trade free money from the Fed and tons of unregulated leverage in another commodity or other bubble.
    Aug 24 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will a Domestic Investment Boom Get Started? [View article]
    Remember, it is manufacturing employment that has been declining, not manufacturing output, much like the situation with agriculture.
    Aug 22 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Pulse of the Post-War Business Cycle on the Verge of Stopping? [View article]
    Thanks for the many comments. The best clarification I can give to the many issues raised is to say that the "social contract" in American appears to be broken--the ability to share in rewards and sacrifice in a way that most people perceive as fair is gone.

    So either we come together democratically, with good old solidarity and a share-and-share-alike attitude, or we fall into an authoritarian "state socialism" and probable police state, a dark age that preserves the current distribution and perceived unfairness. Barring these, if we fall apart we become a collapsed state like Mexico apparently is, where day to day life is ruled by street criminals, and there is no law.

    I am hoping we can come together democratically. But as long as Big Money owns our government, that will be difficult. Barack beat the system by raising his money on the Internet. Now it's time to take Congress away from the Big Money interests.
    Aug 17 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Rising Animal Spirits Lead to Economic Ruin? [View article]
    Tony, my man,

    I may be angry occasionally (but I practice deep-breathing exercises to control) but I am not mad.

    And if you can't see that America is an empire, you need glasses, my friend.

    Benign
    Aug 8 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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