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Benjamin Smith, CFA, AIF®

 
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  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Thanks Josh!
    Nov 30 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Fantastic question. Also, you have to consider it for multiple markets. SODA is more of an established brand in some of Western Europe versus the US where they are a new brand. Unfortunately the company didn't have the information - they even didn't track C02 per Sodamaker, I had to reverse engineer that data myself. I think your line of thinking is spot on though, and it would be more telling than the data points I provided in the article.
    Nov 29 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    ZoeZoe, SODA is much cheaper per serving than purchasing Coke or Pepsi. As a guess, I'd estimate each serving from the SODA system is like 10% (or less) of the cost of a single serving Coke/Pepsi.
    Nov 29 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    By-the-way, the rounded discussion is great - its fantastic to give the investing public both sides of the story through the article and its comments. Thank-you all very much for having the discussion on the article. Very much appreciated.
    Nov 28 03:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Josh, all good points and I appreciate your bullishness stand on SODA. I think much of the difference comes in the investor's appetite for risk. There are downsides to this stock that me, as a conservative investor, doesn't have a whole lot of appetite for but it doesn't mean that other investors can't get past those issues.
    Nov 28 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Misho, thank-you for the question. The coffee industry is one where there are many producer, distributor and retailer players. GMC was able to create a technology that revolutionized the industry due to the fractured nature (and significant number) of entrants in the coffee marketplace. To explain that a bit further, because no one company controlled enough of the coffee industry, no one company was able to formulate a quick enough response to compete with GMC. With SODA, there are three players that have significant resources and breadth of expertise and skill to compete with SODA if consumer habits start changing. I'd be worried that PEP, KO or DPS could at any point take their carbonator and syrup that they only allowed use for commercial use directly to the consumer. Since SODA's patents are close to expiration anyways, they could even use SODA's technology to do it. Essentially, this point can negate any long-term enterprise value the company is speculated to have.
    Nov 28 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Good points from the both of you, Adam and martinitony. I think the businesses that engage in fashion, as martinitony implies, may have lower barriers to entry in the industry. Where the soft drink industry is essentially an oligopoly, (KO, PEP, DPS) I believe its a bit more difficult to pressure the habits of the consumer here without expecting a strong response from the major players.
    Nov 28 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Bill - in 2011, SODA lowered their earnings outlook causing the stock to drop by 50%. I'm reiterating that any perceived or real slow down in the growth rate may cause a significant drop in price. In regards to the Gaza Strip point, I don't believe a permanent peace was created and having a company with a headquarters and production facilities in the country creates an additional layer of risk.
    Nov 28 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Martinitony, per your comment on points #1 & #2 - both charts were pulled directly from the company's 2011 20-F. Your question on point #2 was unexplained in any of the readings I did on the company.
    Nov 28 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Is It Time To 'Get Busy With The Fizzy'? [View article]
    Paul - thank-you for your comment. My intention was not to point out whether or not employees would be called up as reserves, but that during this conflict those worries were reflected in the stock price. Also, there is a legitimate concern about conflict in the country affecting the business, whether it is on employees, production, trade partners etc.
    Nov 28 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Company Shopping List For A Declining Market: Part 2- Chipotle Mexican Grill [View article]
    Brant - good follow-up article from your previous CMG post. I'm continuing to get familiar with the company so I cannot poke any holes in your long-term thesis. Looking at the CMG chart technically, I'm a bit worried about the penetration of the 200 DMA and a struggle to find any support levels. The stock struggled to hold the $300 level ahead of earnings and looks weak again at $250. I think those that are patient with the stock will continue to find some attractive entry points at a more reasonable P/E.
    Oct 30 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Luxottica - Focusing On Growth Potential [View article]
    Thanks for the comment on Brooks Brothers - I wasn't aware that was part of the portfolio, too.
    Oct 28 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fixed Income Allocations [View article]
    Regarding emerging market debt, what's your level of concern regarding currency risk with these positions? As I recall in 2008, investors in such areas as Australian bonds were hit pretty hard during the downturn. Obviously the ones that rode out the volatility were just fine, but where I tend to position bond investors lend themselves to some more safety first. I surmise that's why you only place 5-10% of a portfolio in EM debt instead of a large 35% weighting that you quoted from Barron's.

    This certainly isn't a challenge but just wanted to understand how much weighting you do place on currency / economic risk in these positions. BTW - I've been a reader of your blog for the past 5 years and also a large New England sports fan. Many thanks for your consistent and objective viewpoints and topics!
    Oct 8 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Micro Devices: Own The Turnaround [View article]
    I wrote a similar article last week that highlights many of the same considerations you bring up here. Interesting point regarding RFMD as a takeover candidate. You mention synergy savings of $100mm - would this be only for Broadcom or some other chip maker? Where do you see the $100mm coming from and how did you arrive at that number?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 8 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Micro Devices Receiving A Stronger Signal [View article]
    Esekla - great point on the $5 price for institutions. I hadn't considered it here but obviously makes alot of sense. Thanks for adding to the discussion.
    Oct 5 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
21 Comments
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