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Benjamin Wiley  

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  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    Management has presented no info to support their claims of 50% margin. I'm attempting to inform, not deceive. I've spoken with dozens of different companies over the last 3 years and the consensus is $3 ft2 for ITO is typical, but it can go cheaper in China. ITO for capactive touch screens tends to run a bit higher because it is more conductive. My sources in include people in Solutia (now owned by eastman chemical), the largest ITO film manufacturer in the US. There are also many reports out (e.g. display bank) there that I can include here because of copyright, but the data is out there, you don't have to take my word for it.
    Jan 17, 2013. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    HI Chris,
    I started NanoForge in 2010 with the premise that (1) there was a need for a solution-coatable, ITO alternative, because the main cost of ITO was in the slow coating rate; (2) starting in 2005, Cambrios had raised $60 million to market silver nanowires as an ITO alternative, and (3) copper was 100 times cheaper than silver. In 2012, Cambrios has a great product that outperforms ITO, but the touch screen market is still not large enough for the business to be profitable. This might change as the touch screen market size increases, but that will take time, and there is a lot of competition (12 silver nanowire companies alone!). It also turns out that the cost of silver in a silver nanowire film is less than $1/m2 (100 nm thick), so copper versus silver is immaterial in the short run given the concerns people have with oxidation and color of copper. I'm not trying to push silver nanowires here, my work focuses on copper nanowires and I think long-term that is the lowest-cost option. But near term there is simply no big market for ITO alternatives. All the ITO goes into LCD's, and it costs $4 for a 40" flat screen panel:
    http://bit.ly/QKP3N0

    Also, I'm not sure if electroless plating is really a high-throughput production alternative to vapor phase deposition of ITO. As the paper below states: "when compared to
    the electrodeposition of copper, electroless plating has a
    lower deposition rate (1 to 3 μm/hr; ~40 to 120 µ-in./hr) and the resultant deposit has less desirable metallurgical properties."
    http://bit.ly/WK8lTr

    1 to 3 um/ hr! Unipixel appears to be using a metal jet 6000p, which can fit up to 60 meters of film. They really need at least a few microns of copper in order to get good performance. 60 meters of film sitting in the bath for an hour translates into coating rates of 1 meter/minute, which is the same rate as ITO production!
    Metal jet:
    http://bit.ly/YaSsvR

    As for the order, I didn't see any firm order announcement with numbers of any sort, let alone who they are going to. Where did you see that?
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    Chris,

    You raise a very good point, thank you for pointing out this other angle that escaped my notice. However, your assumption on average notebook size is incorrect. As you may have noticed by now, the morgan stanley report included a break down of different sizes, with 38% being 10", and 25% being 12". I used this wikipedia page to convert the screen size to area: http://bit.ly/10ARkTY.

    If you break it down by screen size, and add them all up, you get a little over 5 million m2, or about 54 million sq ft. Lets pretend the $20 price point is realistic for arguments sake, and you get to 5% being $54 million in revenue.

    Why is this double the number I cited in the article? The 2.2 million number was from this report including info from display bank:
    http://bit.ly/10ARkTY

    The report is dated from 2011. Morgan Stanley doubled their outlook for 2013 from their original estimate last year, so it makes sense that the projected revenue is twice as high relative to the display bank estimate made in 2011. However, it is not four times as high as your flawed conversion suggests.

    However, the references I cite for the price of transparent conductive film indicate that the $20 sq/ft is about four times the cost of ITO film, and 2 times the cost of patterned ITO. These are not simply numbers I pulled out of the air, they come from reports, and from 3 years of discussions with people in the industry. So I believe they will have a great deal of trouble selling their product, similar to the case of diamond guard.
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    Hi Brian,

    Could you please cite the link for your quote about TI? I don't see in the quote any indication that UniBoss is a touch sensor, it is quoted as part of a "Touch Solution." Interesting.

    Good question! Why would an OEM provide $15 million? Do you have any evidence that this has occurred? What I heard in the last earnings call was that a partnered funded solution could really boost production in July, but no clear announcement that this has occurred.

    How do you refute the report from Morgan Stanley as to the size of the market in sq ft? Do you have any reference to the market data that says anything different from what I have cited?

    Thank you,

    Ben
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    Hi Stock Miner. I appreciated the links to relevant info in your last article. However, I'm confused by your comment. What are Texas Instruments and UniPixel going to market together? Who are they going to market it too? Are they going to partner with someone who actually makes a device that is sold to consumers? Who will that be?

    Honestly I don't follow the logic of how touting some nebulous partnership and never coming out with a product should warrant an investment. Unipixel announced the partnership with Carestream last March and there is still zero revenues because according to management it turns out to be "really hard" to sell diamond guard.
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    Thank you for your commendation.
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    I'm confused, is Cambrios a client of nanomarkets, or vice versa? Where is your information from? If there is some relationship, why would nanomarkets say the market for Cambrios is so tiny?

    I assumed you listend to the calls about the manufacturing process? It simply describes making a metal grid, no touch sensor. As does their reports to the SEC.
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: Independent Market Analysis Suggests Losses For 2013 [View article]
    1) I don't receive any compensation from Cambrios, I simply helped to create the technology on which their product is based. Besides, I don't say the market for silver nanowires is any different than for UniBoss, it is the same tiny market. Cambrios is simply in the market already.
    2) You must have misread, as I have several different referrals to the entire touch screen market.
    3) As it states in UNXL's annual report, UniBoss is "manufacturing process for high volume roll to roll printing of flexible thin-film conductor patterns". UniBoss is not a touch sensor or module, it is a transparent conducting film.
    4) Where is the source of your market data? It would be helpful to cite your sources.
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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