Seeking Alpha

Bernard Thomas

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Bernard Thomas' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Current Market About to Lose Momentum - Gundlach [View article]
    OK V-shaped people tell me this. How will consumers (responsible for 2/3s of economic activity) spend us out of this when they cannot get credit as they had during the past ten years? I am not talking about restrictive credit where one has to do more than fog a mirror to receive credit.

    The truth is that demand will be far less than it has been during the past two economic expansions. That is the way it should be. The savings rate will rise, unemployment will settle in at around 6% to 7%, incomes will be below what they were during the past decade and familes will eschew the $40,000 Tahoe in favor of a $24,000 crossover, mini-van or sedan, none of which can be built profitably in a UAW plant. Bye-bye GM and Chrysler.

    I am not saying that the equity markets are in for a sharp correction, only that we have already seen the sharpest rally. It is slow going from hear with periodic setbacks.
    Sep 12, 2009. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow [View article]
    Right the Dow will keep rising and trees grow to the sky. What happens when revenues and profits do not meet expectations. It is called a correction.

    CNBC and its pundits are doing a good job talking up the markets. FYI: 100 share prints are now the most common execution size. That is a sign that things may be over done or at least trading on emotion rather than fact.
    Aug 25, 2009. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow [View article]
    OK, tellme why he is wrong this time? Please don't tell me it just has to be based on historical precedents. The economic contexts are very different.


    On Aug 25 09:47 AM Dr. Roberts wrote:

    > A broken clock is right more often than Dr. Doom. Once the media
    > latches on to an academic, the masses are force fed large doses no
    > matter how unpredictable the subject matter may be.
    Aug 25, 2009. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow [View article]
    I am noit saying that Roubini is always right or has always been right. I am merely stating that he is right this time around. CNBC pundits criticize by pointing out that he failed to call the bottom of the markets in March. I'll counter by saying the blind bulls failed to call the top a few years ago. I have been trading for 18 years and those who correctly call tops and bottoms are far more lucky than good.

    To address Rick Urban's comments. I think a V-shaped recovery would be more akin to a meteor hitting us than Mr. Roubini's scenario. Someone please tell me how the consumer will pull us upward or what will replace consumer activity. I have been asking this for weeks and all I have heard are crickets.
    Aug 25, 2009. 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted [View article]
    What you are missing is that the soldiers you mention believed in their training, their commanders and their cause. Would these soldiers have had the same degree of confidence if they believed their commanders to be incompetent or questioned their methods of fighting the war. Having confidence in this economy would be like soldiers beimg confident in facing Panzers while being armed with teaspoons. Blind optimism (without considering the real dangers) is as or more harmful than realism.


    On Aug 25 08:57 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

    > Hmm. Seems to me that with all the bad news people expect, we have
    > only one choice: reelect Obama, and after him make sure that Hilary
    > gets her eight.
    >
    > I wonder what would have happened at Bastogne and the Rhine crossing
    > if American soldiers had the kind of pessimism shown in some of the
    > comments published on this site. Yes, the so-called energy bill is
    > pretty close to bonkers, and I tune out when I hear about the health
    > 'thing', but dont be surprised if the macro-financial medicine works,
    > and sooner rather than later.
    Aug 25, 2009. 09:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted [View article]
    An guys like Kudlow are begging FASB to not reverse its mark-to-market decision because it will kill the bull market. It is better to feel well than to actually be well. Pay no attention to the toxic assets behind the curtain.


    On Aug 24 12:12 PM conceptwizard wrote:

    > Two nobel prize winning economists Merton and Scholes' state that
    > without a reversal of the "mark to market" accounting rules for the
    > banks, there will be no recovery.
    > Many top economists believe that the economy will not recover unless
    > and until the real state of the banks and their assets are acknowledged
    > and insolvent banks broken up in an orderly fashion.
    >
    > The Financial Accounting Standards Board (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > is, in fact, considering a reversal from its April change in policy
    > which suspended mark-to-market accounting. Specifically, FASB is
    > considering vastly tightening mark-to-market requirements to include
    > virtually all securities on a bank's balance sheet.
    >
    > The Obama administration believe that setting these rules aside and
    > allowing the assets to increase in value after the recovery, that
    > the assets will be worth more.
    >
    > We are not dealing with reality, there is more pain to come.
    >
    Aug 25, 2009. 08:30 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow [View article]
    You could be correct. This economy was not structured (in recent years) to function with consumers living within their means.
    Aug 25, 2009. 07:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bove Sees the Light on Banks? [View article]
    I stand corrected. The 10-year auction was weaker than expected. Concerns about the deficit, $15 billion of 30-year bonds coming due tomorrow and a very strong 3-year note auction were the culprits. Keep mind however, at $23 billion, this was the largest 10-year auction ever.
    Aug 12, 2009. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bove Sees the Light on Banks? [View article]
    I am all for risk taking, but now banks can really use the givernment as THEIR containment vessel. Heck, Goldman is a bank. It can take all kinds of risk and, if necessary, borrow money from the Fed at almost 0.00%. Counterparties will continue to do business with Goldman because of this. I say that if you want to take risk you have to be permitted to fail if you make bad bets. The possibility of failure will reign in wonton risk.
    Aug 12, 2009. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09) [View article]
    Market timing in general is a road to ruin. The pros can't do it enough of the time to be successful, what makes anyone here think they can do it. Market timing is a fools game like trying to go to Vegas to strike it rich.
    Aug 12, 2009. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Banks Will Keep Getting Stronger [View article]
    1) The number of homeowners in distress is rising

    2) The steep yield curve is helping, but is being limited by the fact that the amount of lending activity is restricted to those who need credit and can actually repay debt (imagine that).

    3) Never use investing along side the government as a strategy, especially after Fred, Fan, Chrysler and GM.

    The government will do what it thinks is necessary, politically as well as economically. Bernanke and Bair are clamoring for a way to dismantle large, troubled institutions. If the system continues to heal, but there are a weak bank or two, ways will be found to dismantle them.

    Remember, there are ways to meet counterparty obligations, repay most or all of the government's investment and not make investors whole. It is called a cramdown.
    Aug 12, 2009. 08:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long and Short of U.S. Treasury Auctions [View article]
    Incorrect, Brazil and Argentina cannot replciate the amount of trade activity China effectively does with New York State. China's trade will remain U.S.-centric for decades to come leaving it with huge dollar reserves. No avoiding the dollar for a very long time.


    On Aug 01 10:50 PM nmelendez wrote:

    > That's the plan. They won't officially remove the dollar as the national
    > reserve currency. They will, however, establish trade relationship
    > between cooperating countries like Brazil and Argentina. Effectively,
    > they are gonna bypass the dollar.
    Aug 3, 2009. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long and Short of U.S. Treasury Auctions [View article]
    Hearing from whom? There was almost no foreign central bank buying of the most recent two-year and five-year auctions. There has been huge central bank buying of the two most recent ten-year and 30-year auctions.


    On Aug 01 05:10 PM Old Trader wrote:

    > Mr. Thomas,
    >
    > From what I'm reading/hearing the Chinese have moved to the short
    > end of the curve, abandoning longer duration bonds, despite what
    > you're saying is how the CBs view things. In addition, China is instituting
    > external yuan transfers with certain trading partners.
    Aug 3, 2009. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long and Short of U.S. Treasury Auctions [View article]
    Nit until a currency supplants the dollar as the reserve currency. Europe is in worse shape than we are and China does not permit external Renminbi transfers.


    On Aug 01 10:28 AM popey wrote:

    > Yeah, but the USA is on the verge of a systemic implosion. The rally
    > at the long end will be short lived, as the dollar begins to unwind
    > and the govt fiscal madness starts boiling the bond frogs. The bond
    > market will collapse at the short and long end. Very soon.
    Aug 1, 2009. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Green Shoots: These Are the Brown Shoots Turning Black [View article]
    Kudlow is a patriot. Kudlow is a capitalist. Kudlow is a cheerleader. Larry will use enthusiams to encourage people back into the market to create a selfulfilling prophecy. Fundamentals do not matter. It is all about enthusiasm. Perception is reality with Larry.

    Here is some reality. Mortgage delinquencies and defaults continue to rise as even responsible people are finding difficult to make mortgage payments while unemployed. Let's not even discuss credit card and car payments. The extent of the econimc recovert will be determined by productivity. We are not going to lever ourselves out of this one.
    Jul 11, 2009. 11:15 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
96 Likes