Bernard Vavala

Special situations, small-cap, growth, short-term horizon
Bernard Vavala
Special situations, small-cap, growth, short-term horizon
Contributor since: 2013
the are in the process of attempting right now
You would think so wouldn't you ? When this materializes I will gladly pay higher prices to join in the reindeer fun. Not holding my breath though. Sorry to be flip about it but the CEO has sung the same sung too many quarters now.
Crudely put there just after revenues now vs higher margined biz because it wasn't working. I would refer you to the CC Q&A for a more in depth tap dance by the CEO.
The problem seems to be that the horse has been led to the water but he isn't drinking. When IPAS makes that horse drink it will be quite evident. What concerns me is there shift back to a strategy they had discarded. It makes me question current management. At some point you just have to get it done
If it does, it won't be in the 2nd half of 2013 according to managment. SHOW ME, IPAS.
I don't think it's as much a matter of time as it is a reason for potential users to use IPAS services. So far this has been painfully slow. Very much a show me situation now. In my opinion, management has lost much credibility, at least with me.
Have to call it as I see it. Lovely PR but horrendous numbers and an even worse performance by the CEO on the CC. I can't recommend this investment until management proves itself. So far it hasn't.
The IPAS legacy biz continues to rundown even as they are making progress with their new initiatives. While I would hope for YoY growth in the 2nd quarter I am far more interested in future guidance for the balance of the year as management as stated revenues would ramp in the latter half of 2013. Hopefully the insider buys reflect this confidence. Stock action has certainly been better. We'll have a much better idea on the next CC.
best, Bernard
BTW I think you are right in your endeavor to point out the potential danger the fed faces in their continued attempt to control the long end of the curve. Good article.
"Since December 2012, the Fed has been buying $40 million of mortgage bonds and $45 million of "longer-term" Treasury bonds per month. This is commonly referred to as quantitative easing."
One would wish that it were only millions. Our brilliant leader at the Federal Reserve has been buying 85 BILLION with B of these securities each month.
This article is riddled with misinformation. At least have the professionalism to correct blatant errors. Why has this not been done?
thanks for question. The EPA acted because the price of R22 was skyrocketing, over 20 a pound in some mrkts. The investment thesis is still the same as R22 will be phased out over the next 6 years. The EPA wants prices higher but not all in one year. The allocation is less important to HDSN than where prices ultimately settle. I would expect prices will still be in double digits but I want to see where they settle out over the next week or so. Best guess is that the market has overreacted but still need more info on pricing in the wake of the EPA move. At some price, HDSN becomes that much more attractive a takeout candidate.
Hope these thoughts help.
Any idea of what their patent portfolio is worth? thanks
Hi Paul,
Any thoughts on the looming proxy battle for DRAD with last night's filing
by Red Oak LLC? I can see no other motive for such a filing. If it's to truly set a different course for the company what more would they expect of the current shareholder friendly board? This seem purely an attempt to see that DRAD is sold to the highest bidder. Thanks for any thoughts in advance.
bernard vavala
Thanks for commenting. This is indeed correct and it the reason HDSN believes it can actually increase market share organically as r-22 continue to increase, a double whammy if you will, a positive one !
My chief interest in RKUS is its breakthrough in making WiFi are more "complete" experience as it affects IPAS in which I do own shares. Please see my recent article on IPAS which fully reflects my feelings. Needless to say, I think IPAS is very undervalued and a great long term hold though it is up from the price of 1.92 at the time of my article. Cheers.
Thanks for responding. No problem. I've only written one article for SA so far and it's not an easy process. Thanks again for the article.
Appreciated your well written article on Rukus (RKUS) but how can you write a piece on RKUS without mentioning this recent event:
Feb. 8, 2013
Motorola Mobility files 5.4% passive stake in Ruckus Wireless - Motorola Mobility is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Google (GOOG).
I think you are right in your assessment of overvaluation but a 5% investment in any company by Google would likely cause a frenzy, first in the buying and then in the announcement. You also might have explored the reasons GOOG acquired the stake. Would love to see your thoughts on this. Thanks again for a well written piece.
Bernard Vavala

Disclosure: No position or financial interest in GOOG, RKUS or any of their derivatives.
I think they will provide that name as soon as the customer allows. The added service is seen as a competitive advantage so until it rolls out they're not able to PR the new customer. I'm sure we'll see it in the near future. Quite a day today !
IPAS does have an ongoing relationship with Apple. During the last conference call, on Nov. 7th, which is linked in my article by clicking on "good financials" the CEO referenced several initiatives with Apple. The reference was made during the Q & A. Here is the exact quote
" Fred Ziegel - Topeka Capital Markets
Are you trying to get preinstalled on any smart phone or tablet?
Evan Kaplan - President & Chief Executive Officer
You know it’s hard to do these days because it’s not like old cellular days where you are trying to get on the carrier deck. Everybody is comfortable coming out of the app stores. And so there is no -- they download it. What you want to do is get to be downloaded right out of the app store and be able to activate right away. Which is what we are working on. Basically our objective is download should equal activation. We are also doing some interesting initiatives with Apple to make a whole Wi-Fi experience a little bit more seamless on iOS which is the most important platform."
Any PR referencing these "initiatives" with Apple would serve as a powerful catalyst to send IPAS shares higher. Hope this helps.
I actually could have included your well made point in the article. If management were confident on the existing business throwing off enough cash to tick over, your idea make great sense. If anyone from iPass management is reading this, TAKE NOTE ! Their financial situation is a definite plus.
iPass is not without risk but you can see from my other responses what my thinking is on the risk reward aspect. The real rise in iPass will occur when they generate year over year growth. It will be a significant milestone when the legacy business is finally run off.
Were it not for the free cash flow and clean balance sheet I would not have written the article. This is what makes iPass a low risk high reward investment.
Thanks, I get help on those technicals from a very savvy technical analyst.
iPass has to demonstrate their strategy is working. Having said that, their worldwide footprint and IP portfolio minus cash are woefully undervalued.