The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
Hi Gary, thank you for your comments. Never late through! It is impossible to know Apple's plans due to secrecy. We hear about iTV, iWatch, affordable iPhone and bigger screen iPhone (aka phablet). I believe there is space for all these products, but we have to wait. I believe that we will see most of the above products this year or early next. But again this is my view.
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
Lets see for how long Apple's management can ignore this market. Samsung has made a headstart and Galaxy Note is a fantastic device. Apple must introduce a big iPhone and an affordable iPhone during the next few quarters. Apple users have the ability to choose from a variety of Macs (MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, Mac mini, iMac, Mac Pro), but they do not have the ability to choose phone. As the Mac experience tell us, one size (or one product) does not fit all.
Leave Apple's Cash Alone - It Will Need It Soon [View article]
Apple eventually will distribute cash to shareholders. There are several ways to do that. A prudent manager will need to think and implement the best possible distribution approach - dividends etc. Apple's management need to clarify their position to stop speculative trading (e.g. iPref) and unnecessary stock pressure.
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
Hi Davy, they may have rejected the phablet concept years ago. That is possible. My humble opinion is that the 5" market is too big to be ignored. The 5" phone does not appeal to the 4" phone user. This is a different market. A watch (and Glass) could easily be the next big thing, but when? Thanks.
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
Hi Atmit, what I mean by market is the assemblage of companies doing the same thing. Nokia absolutely did that. Samsung has not done that. Apart from Note there is no other product in the market. I tried to create a list with all products and apart from Note I have not found any other (at least in the US and Europe). 20 millions is massive, but is 20 millions by one company. I think Apple with shake the market, but I might be wrong. Nokia, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Blackberry, HTC and some others might do it, but I will not bet my money on it. Thanks.
Preferred Shares Alchemy And Why It Does Not Work [View article]
Hi jbcm, Apple operates in several countries and it is not uncommon foreign operations to be structured as separate legal entities. Apple as of the end of September 2012, has deferred tax liabilities of $14.9 billion. A good piece of it (or all) is deferred as a result of undistributed foreign earnings. Apple's foreign reserves are more or less $90 billion. Assuming that all tax liabilities are due (as a result of bad tax planning, tax credits, or otherwise), Apple's foreign repatriated reserves will be $75 billion. I am not a tax expert, but I believe buy-back is not tax exempt.
Preferred Shares Alchemy And Why It Does Not Work [View article]
Thank you very much for this. Preferred usually trade two to three times existing multiples; i.e. 20-30. I should have typed 25 (average case) and make this point clear. An oversight on my part. Thank you.
Can The Apple Tree Continue To Grow? [View article]
I agree with your analysis, but I would not classify their products as expensive. Equally I would not say that Nokia or Samsung products are cheap ( or cheaper). Apple products carry a premium that reflect: 1. demand; 2. quality and 3. relatively low obsolescence. Otherwise, great article. Thank you.
Hi SA readers. First let me thank you for your valuable and diverse comments. I appreciate. Let me add some extra points to answer some of your questions. Fist let me say that I have expressed an opinion that it might be wrong or right. I cannot predict the future and as an analytical person I do not try to do so. I do, however, try to interpret available data and superimpose some assumptions in order to define a scenario that will provide positive returns with high probability. If you have followed the well documented and highly convincing analysis presented by dozens of experts you might have bought Apple (AAPL) at $700 with the expectation that it will go to $1,100. Was that a high probability scenario? After reviewing available data and using my judgment, I have concluded that this is not a high probability scenario within a given timeframe. I strongly believe it will go to $1,100, but first it might go below $450. And when it goes below that level we have a high probability trade. My proposition and view are simple. I argue not as an Apple (AAPL) customer (I use, and I love to use, my Mac, iPhone, iPad and I am very happy to pay a premium to have the privilege to be an Apple (AAPL) customer), but as an investor. My target is to beat S&P 500. This means, achieving an annualized return of more than 10-15%. I believe that Apple’s (AAPL) price band is $450-$600. I believe that if a trade is made at the lower end of this range, the chances to make a good return and beat S&P 500 are very high. As simple as that. Make a trade at the high end of this range and your chances go down. To return to my original point, we cannot predict future, but we can use our judgment and available data. This is exactly what I have done.
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
Leave Apple's Cash Alone - It Will Need It Soon [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
20 millions is massive, but is 20 millions by one company. I think Apple with shake the market, but I might be wrong. Nokia, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Blackberry, HTC and some others might do it, but I will not bet my money on it. Thanks.
Preferred Shares Alchemy And Why It Does Not Work [View article]
Preferred Shares Alchemy And Why It Does Not Work [View article]
Preferred Shares Alchemy And Why It Does Not Work [View article]
Can The Apple Tree Continue To Grow? [View article]
How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
Let me add some extra points to answer some of your questions. Fist let me say that I have expressed an opinion that it might be wrong or right. I cannot predict the future and as an analytical person I do not try to do so. I do, however, try to interpret available data and superimpose some assumptions in order to define a scenario that will provide positive returns with high probability. If you have followed the well documented and highly convincing analysis presented by dozens of experts you might have bought Apple (AAPL) at $700 with the expectation that it will go to $1,100. Was that a high probability scenario? After reviewing available data and using my judgment, I have concluded that this is not a high probability scenario within a given timeframe. I strongly believe it will go to $1,100, but first it might go below $450. And when it goes below that level we have a high probability trade.
My proposition and view are simple. I argue not as an Apple (AAPL) customer (I use, and I love to use, my Mac, iPhone, iPad and I am very happy to pay a premium to have the privilege to be an Apple (AAPL) customer), but as an investor. My target is to beat S&P 500. This means, achieving an annualized return of more than 10-15%. I believe that Apple’s (AAPL) price band is $450-$600. I believe that if a trade is made at the lower end of this range, the chances to make a good return and beat S&P 500 are very high. As simple as that. Make a trade at the high end of this range and your chances go down.
To return to my original point, we cannot predict future, but we can use our judgment and available data. This is exactly what I have done.