Bill Cassill - Seeking Alpha 'Bill Cassill' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/bill-cassill Bank Failures Forecast to Increase This Year http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year?source=feed 146973 Has anyone seen the latest press releases from the FDIC on bank failures on July 2nd?

If you haven't seen it yet, you can catch it here. Calculated Risk also has a nice announcement on it as well. Those who have read previous posts of mine know that I like to do time series forecasting of future financial events. Well, bank failures are no different.

]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 06:56:03 -0400 Bill Cassill Has anyone seen the latest press releases from the FDIC on bank failures on July 2nd?

If you haven't seen it yet, you can catch it here. Calculated Risk also has a nice announcement on it as well. Those who have read previous posts of mine know that I like to do time series forecasting of future financial events. Well, bank failures are no different.


Complete Story »]]> IAT RKH XLF Bill Cassill Banks: Long Way to Go Before Things Get Better http://seekingalpha.com/article/145842-banks-long-way-to-go-before-things-get-better?source=feed 145842 Everyone is talking about the smart boys at Goldman Sachs (GS) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) paying back their TARP money early. Everything must be okay, right? Don’t be fooled. The banks are a long, long way from being out of the woods.

The problem is credit losses on the stuff banks have kept on their books. You know, credit cards, home equity lines of credit (a.k.a. the home ATM machine), and commercial real estate. Have we really seen the end of the losses? The problem is that losses are just now beginning to mount.

]]> Sun, 28 Jun 2009 09:43:55 -0400 Bill Cassill Everyone is talking about the smart boys at Goldman Sachs (GS) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) paying back their TARP money early. Everything must be okay, right? Don’t be fooled. The banks are a long, long way from being out of the woods.

The problem is credit losses on the stuff banks have kept on their books. You know, credit cards, home equity lines of credit (a.k.a. the home ATM machine), and commercial real estate. Have we really seen the end of the losses? The problem is that losses are just now beginning to mount.


Complete Story »]]> BAC C GS JPM WFC Bill Cassill The Rally That Never Was http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed 145252 Since March, the Wall Street talking heads have been having a pep rally. “Rah! Rah! Rah!” Shake the pom poms. Have you popped the bubble yet?

Don’t bother. I looked at the S&P 500 index a little closer yesterday just to see what was going on. If we follow the index back to 1990, we see we have had two large bull markets.

]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:58:18 -0400 Bill Cassill Since March, the Wall Street talking heads have been having a pep rally. “Rah! Rah! Rah!” Shake the pom poms. Have you popped the bubble yet?

Don’t bother. I looked at the S&P 500 index a little closer yesterday just to see what was going on. If we follow the index back to 1990, we see we have had two large bull markets.


Complete Story »]]> DIA QQQQ SPY Bill Cassill Expect the Unemployment Rate to Increase http://seekingalpha.com/article/145068-expect-the-unemployment-rate-to-increase?source=feed 145068 The economic crisis is almost over say the cable news talking heads. Recovery is just around the corner say the experts. Don’t listen to either one. How can we tell? Let’s take a look at the employment picture. Below is a chart of the unemployment (seasonally adjusted) through April 2009. As of the end of April, the unemployment rate stood at 8.9%.


]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:43:39 -0400 Bill Cassill The economic crisis is almost over say the cable news talking heads. Recovery is just around the corner say the experts. Don’t listen to either one. How can we tell? Let’s take a look at the employment picture. Below is a chart of the unemployment (seasonally adjusted) through April 2009. As of the end of April, the unemployment rate stood at 8.9%.



Complete Story »]]> DIA SPY Bill Cassill Why Interest Rates Will Continue to Rise http://seekingalpha.com/article/145067-why-interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise?source=feed 145067 Anyone looking at interest rates recently must be wondering why they keep going up. This raises the question, will rates continue to increase or will they go back down? Well, if we look at Treasuries, things don’t bode so well:

]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:42:09 -0400 Bill Cassill Anyone looking at interest rates recently must be wondering why they keep going up. This raises the question, will rates continue to increase or will they go back down? Well, if we look at Treasuries, things don’t bode so well:


Complete Story »]]> SPY Bill Cassill