Comments on Bill Cassill's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/bill-cassill/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year?source=feed#comment-706828 706828 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:19:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-586517 586517 > How did the Bear Stearns bailout work? > We paid JPMorgan Chase to take them over (and prevent a collapse > of that bank) > > How did the AIG bailout work? > We bailed out all of the counter parties holding CDS's with AIG by > paying full face value on the loss. > > How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work? > We bailed them out to cover the losses of the various sovereign wealth > funds so they would keep buying U.S. Treasury debt. > > How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like > HOPE NOW work out? > There's a government program that works? > > How did TARP work? > Get Congress to give you lots of money that you then pass along to > all of your bankster buddies. > > How will the PPIP work? > If this is the Geithner plan, I don't think it does work. My understanding > is that no one is ponying up any money (or hardly anyone). > > How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations? > Very nice. Bernanke has helped his bank buddies sell additional > shares at inflated prices to make up for self inflicted wounds.
> > How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill > worked out? > Can anyone say "Zombie Bank?" > > How helpful was the stress test? > Just helped to confirm that the chips are still stacked against the > individual investor. Bought the banks a little additional time to > try and earn their way out of this mess. Best of luck with that > one. > > Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or > announcing PPIP? > Hahahahahahahahahahaha... > > How did the first stimulus plan work out? > The vote is still out on that one. Need more $$$ for infrastructure > (failing bridges, roads, and electrical grid). > > How did the recent stimulus plan work out? > Same. > > How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed > to believe? > Market is still overvalued relative to earnings. Of course, the > market stopped listening to things like earnings and balance sheets > a long time ago. Everything is liquidity driven. > > Do you have good expectations for interest rates? > Up, up, and away... > > Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower? > Federal maybe. Not state and local however. Too many budget shortfalls. > Watch out for voters with torches and pitchforks. > > Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining? > Hahahahahaha! Well, actually we may get some budget cuts at the state > and local levels since they cant' print money like Uncle Sam can. > > > Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?
Not > at the federal level. > > Do you have good expectations for house appreciation? > Jesus. It'll take 5 for housing prices to begin to stabilize.
> > Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures? > Have you seen the coming tsunami of option ARM resets in the next > two years? After you've looked at it, get back to me. > > Do you have good expectations for low unemployment? > No. Only going higher. > > Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing? > Can we all say "wage deflation?" > > Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced? > > Of course, when the vulture capitalists smell blood and a good deal. > > > Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?
Yes, > I do. When the banks finish taking all of their charge-offs because > people cannot afford to pay. > > Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS? > > In Seattle and Bellevue Washington near where I live, 75% of recently > constructed condos are still unsold...and no one is buying...in new, > expensive high rise buildings. Can anyone guess how this will turn > out? > > If the US has bottomed, has Europe? > The US has not bottomed. Europe is screwed more than we are. > > Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble? > The dollar will be fine despite everyone's bitching. It's a race > to the bottom for everyone because of borrowing and quantitative > easing. Want to know how the Chinese maintain their peg to the dollar? > They have to print money just as fast as we do. > > On Jun 26 12:36 AM Rokjok777 wrote:]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:03:14 -0400
Commercial real estate consists of residential/office/war... Banks with manageable NPLs will be able to juggle their balance sheets. Any recommendations on which ones?


On Jun 26 05:09 PM Bill Cassill wrote:

>
> How did the Bear Stearns bailout work?
> We paid JPMorgan Chase to take them over (and prevent a collapse
> of that bank)
>
> How did the AIG bailout work?
> We bailed out all of the counter parties holding CDS's with AIG by
> paying full face value on the loss.
>
> How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work?
> We bailed them out to cover the losses of the various sovereign wealth
> funds so they would keep buying U.S. Treasury debt.
>
> How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like
> HOPE NOW work out?
> There's a government program that works?
>
> How did TARP work?
> Get Congress to give you lots of money that you then pass along to
> all of your bankster buddies.
>
> How will the PPIP work?
> If this is the Geithner plan, I don't think it does work. My understanding
> is that no one is ponying up any money (or hardly anyone).
>
> How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations?
> Very nice. Bernanke has helped his bank buddies sell additional
> shares at inflated prices to make up for self inflicted wounds.

>
> How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill
> worked out?
> Can anyone say "Zombie Bank?"
>
> How helpful was the stress test?
> Just helped to confirm that the chips are still stacked against the
> individual investor. Bought the banks a little additional time to
> try and earn their way out of this mess. Best of luck with that
> one.
>
> Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or
> announcing PPIP?
> Hahahahahahahahahahaha...
>
> How did the first stimulus plan work out?
> The vote is still out on that one. Need more $$$ for infrastructure
> (failing bridges, roads, and electrical grid).
>
> How did the recent stimulus plan work out?
> Same.
>
> How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed
> to believe?
> Market is still overvalued relative to earnings. Of course, the
> market stopped listening to things like earnings and balance sheets
> a long time ago. Everything is liquidity driven.
>
> Do you have good expectations for interest rates?
> Up, up, and away...
>
> Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower?
> Federal maybe. Not state and local however. Too many budget shortfalls.
> Watch out for voters with torches and pitchforks.
>
> Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining?
> Hahahahahaha! Well, actually we may get some budget cuts at the state
> and local levels since they cant' print money like Uncle Sam can.
>
>
> Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?
Not
> at the federal level.
>
> Do you have good expectations for house appreciation?
> Jesus. It'll take 5 for housing prices to begin to stabilize.

>
> Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures?
> Have you seen the coming tsunami of option ARM resets in the next
> two years? After you've looked at it, get back to me.
>
> Do you have good expectations for low unemployment?
> No. Only going higher.
>
> Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing?
> Can we all say "wage deflation?"
>
> Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced?
>
> Of course, when the vulture capitalists smell blood and a good deal.
>
>
> Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?
Yes,
> I do. When the banks finish taking all of their charge-offs because
> people cannot afford to pay.
>
> Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS?
>
> In Seattle and Bellevue Washington near where I live, 75% of recently
> constructed condos are still unsold...and no one is buying...in new,
> expensive high rise buildings. Can anyone guess how this will turn
> out?
>
> If the US has bottomed, has Europe?
> The US has not bottomed. Europe is screwed more than we are.
>
> Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble?
> The dollar will be fine despite everyone's bitching. It's a race
> to the bottom for everyone because of borrowing and quantitative
> easing. Want to know how the Chinese maintain their peg to the dollar?
> They have to print money just as fast as we do.
>
> On Jun 26 12:36 AM Rokjok777 wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year?source=feed#comment-574480 574480 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:22:18 -0400 One thing that may be overlooked are the number of branches closed.If,for instance,SNV and Regions fail in 2010,they are only two banks but hundreds of branches.The community effect is far above "two banks".Would love to see your report done in number of branches.This would better indicate economic effect.
CW]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year?source=feed#comment-574458 574458 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:01:21 -0400 I would shirk this dire warning off except that on the street last week I heard that local police in this small southeastern Colorado community expect to be federalized soon.
Then I heard yesterday that guards at the two prisons in this county - one private and one state - are being deputized. Deputized for what?
A bank holiday would clearly put a death stake in the heart of the broader non financial businesses that are trying to limp along while the major money center banks pretend they are not insolvent.
Schultz is warning that the holiday is part of an overall plan by the international banksters to create a scenario for introducing a global currency and forcing hapless consumers to accept it. Schultz says the IMF will be the issuer. Of course, a global currency will then require a global banking slave control mechanism with super powers and no accountability. It will also be far too big to manage.
But the banksters don't know that yet. They are just working the plan, always the plan.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year?source=feed#comment-574317 574317 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 08:12:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145842-banks-long-way-to-go-before-things-get-better?source=feed#comment-566313 566313 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 21:45:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145842-banks-long-way-to-go-before-things-get-better?source=feed#comment-566024 566024 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:47:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145842-banks-long-way-to-go-before-things-get-better?source=feed#comment-565621 565621 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 10:20:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-564180 564180 lengthy list on HedgeFolios asks some great questions: > > How did the Bear Stearns bailout work? > > How did the AIG bailout work? > > How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work? > > How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like > HOPE NOW work out? > > How did TARP work? > > How will the PPIP work? > > How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations? > > How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill > worked out? > > How helpful was the stress test? > > Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or > announcing PPIP? > > How did the first stimulus plan work out? > > How did the recent stimulus plan work out? > > How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed > to believe? > > Do you have good expectations for interest rates? > > Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower? > > Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining? > > Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?
> > Do you have good expectations for house appreciation? > > Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures? > > Do you have good expectations for low unemployment? > > Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing? > > Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced? > > > Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?
> > Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS? > > > If the US has bottomed, has Europe? > > Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble?]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 17:09:58 -0400 How did the Bear Stearns bailout work?
We paid JPMorgan Chase to take them over (and prevent a collapse of that bank)

How did the AIG bailout work?
We bailed out all of the counter parties holding CDS's with AIG by paying full face value on the loss.

How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work?
We bailed them out to cover the losses of the various sovereign wealth funds so they would keep buying U.S. Treasury debt.

How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like HOPE NOW work out?
There's a government program that works?

How did TARP work?
Get Congress to give you lots of money that you then pass along to all of your bankster buddies.

How will the PPIP work?
If this is the Geithner plan, I don't think it does work. My understanding is that no one is ponying up any money (or hardly anyone).

How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations?
Very nice. Bernanke has helped his bank buddies sell additional shares at inflated prices to make up for self inflicted wounds.

How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill worked out?
Can anyone say "Zombie Bank?"

How helpful was the stress test?
Just helped to confirm that the chips are still stacked against the individual investor. Bought the banks a little additional time to try and earn their way out of this mess. Best of luck with that one.

Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or announcing PPIP?
Hahahahahahahahahahaha...

How did the first stimulus plan work out?
The vote is still out on that one. Need more $$$ for infrastructure (failing bridges, roads, and electrical grid).

How did the recent stimulus plan work out?
Same.

How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed to believe?
Market is still overvalued relative to earnings. Of course, the market stopped listening to things like earnings and balance sheets a long time ago. Everything is liquidity driven.

Do you have good expectations for interest rates?
Up, up, and away...

Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower?
Federal maybe. Not state and local however. Too many budget shortfalls. Watch out for voters with torches and pitchforks.

Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining?
Hahahahahaha! Well, actually we may get some budget cuts at the state and local levels since they cant' print money like Uncle Sam can.

Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?
Not at the federal level.

Do you have good expectations for house appreciation?
Jesus. It'll take 5 for housing prices to begin to stabilize.

Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures?
Have you seen the coming tsunami of option ARM resets in the next two years? After you've looked at it, get back to me.

Do you have good expectations for low unemployment?
No. Only going higher.

Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing?
Can we all say "wage deflation?"

Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced?
Of course, when the vulture capitalists smell blood and a good deal.

Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?
Yes, I do. When the banks finish taking all of their charge-offs because people cannot afford to pay.

Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS?
In Seattle and Bellevue Washington near where I live, 75% of recently constructed condos are still unsold...and no one is buying...in new, expensive high rise buildings. Can anyone guess how this will turn out?

If the US has bottomed, has Europe?
The US has not bottomed. Europe is screwed more than we are.

Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble?
The dollar will be fine despite everyone's bitching. It's a race to the bottom for everyone because of borrowing and quantitative easing. Want to know how the Chinese maintain their peg to the dollar? They have to print money just as fast as we do.

On Jun 26 12:36 AM Rokjok777 wrote:

> lengthy list on HedgeFolios asks some great questions:
>
> How did the Bear Stearns bailout work?
>
> How did the AIG bailout work?
>
> How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work?
>
> How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like
> HOPE NOW work out?
>
> How did TARP work?
>
> How will the PPIP work?
>
> How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations?
>
> How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill
> worked out?
>
> How helpful was the stress test?
>
> Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or
> announcing PPIP?
>
> How did the first stimulus plan work out?
>
> How did the recent stimulus plan work out?
>
> How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed
> to believe?
>
> Do you have good expectations for interest rates?
>
> Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower?
>
> Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining?
>
> Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?

>
> Do you have good expectations for house appreciation?
>
> Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures?
>
> Do you have good expectations for low unemployment?
>
> Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing?
>
> Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced?
>
>
> Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?

>
> Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS?
>
>
> If the US has bottomed, has Europe?
>
> Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-563098 563098 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:36:13 -0400
How did the Bear Stearns bailout work?

How did the AIG bailout work?

How did the Fannie and Freddie bailout work?

How did all those government foreclosure avoidance programs like HOPE NOW work out?

How did TARP work?

How will the PPIP work?

How successful was Bernanke with his market manipulations?

How have all the forced mergers like BAC Countrywide and Merrill worked out?

How helpful was the stress test?

Were all the toxic assets fixed just by changing mark-to-market or announcing PPIP?

How did the first stimulus plan work out?

How did the recent stimulus plan work out?

How cheap is the market based upon the crappy estimates we are supposed to believe?

Do you have good expectations for interest rates?

Do you have good expectations for taxes being lower?

Do you have good expectations for budget deficits declining?

Do you have good expectations for lowered government spending?

Do you have good expectations for house appreciation?

Do you have good expectations for lowered foreclosures?

Do you have good expectations for low unemployment?

Do you have good expectations for wage rates increasing?

Do you have good expectations for private equity deals getting refinanced?

Do you have good expectations for credit card debt reductions?

Do you have good expectations for commercial real estate, aka CMBS?

If the US has bottomed, has Europe?

Do you expect the dollar to stabilize or not crumble?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-562411 562411 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:05:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-562278 562278 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:49:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-562262 562262 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:42:24 -0400 Corporate Leaders are heading for the hills.
They'll hang onto their Paychecks as long as possible while getting ready for the "XXXX To Hit The Fan"!
I'd do the same thing if I wasn"t allready on the street looking for another Gig.
Hell, at least my Tax Liabilities will be almost "0" for 2009!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-562261 562261 >>a real rally is not in the works<< > > Hey, I'm as bearish as the next guy (and probably a lot more so), > but to call a 40%+ move off the lows "not real" strikes me as kind > of silly. If you put $100 in the SPY in early March and sold the > shares for $140, was the money "real"? And if you shorted $100 worth > at the March lows and you now have $60, are the losses not "real"? > If you want to call it an unsustainable, "bear-market rally" (which, > in fairness, you do say in the article), that's fine. But if you're > playing for "real money" then it (was) certainly a "real rally".]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:41:23 -0400
I certainly understand your logic. A 40% move is clearly impressive. However, the bigger question is whether the rally is truly sustainable. Even during the Great Depression, there were short term rallies in the stock market only to see the indicies go back down again. The only point I am trying to make is to be careful. I certainly wouldn't be putting all of my liquid assets into the market as part of a big upside bet. If you have some money to gamble with, by all means have at it. The market is all about risk tolerance. Just don't be a gambler. The upside is that whatever direction the market decides to head in, there is certain to be movement volatility. That is probably where your real opportunity is, even if the market only trades sideways for awhile.


On Jun 25 07:14 AM logicalthought wrote:

> >>a real rally is not in the works<<
>
> Hey, I'm as bearish as the next guy (and probably a lot more so),
> but to call a 40%+ move off the lows "not real" strikes me as kind
> of silly. If you put $100 in the SPY in early March and sold the
> shares for $140, was the money "real"? And if you shorted $100 worth
> at the March lows and you now have $60, are the losses not "real"?
> If you want to call it an unsustainable, "bear-market rally" (which,
> in fairness, you do say in the article), that's fine. But if you're
> playing for "real money" then it (was) certainly a "real rally".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-562053 562053 Exactly. Now that we are solidly into a correction, I have been flooded > with requests from readers to call the next bottom in the S&P > 500. Well here it is. Brace yourself. Put it on a Post-it-Note on > your computer. It is without a doubt and unquestionably going to > be 880, 850, 830, 800, 750, 666, or 320. That last number works out > to be 90% of the book value of the S&P 500, which was the low > seen in the 1930s depression. Yes, that depression, not this one. > You are really asking me to solve a one billion variable equation, > because that is the number of direct and indirect participants in > global stock markets. If the few green shoots out there start to > die off, the meltdown in commercial real estate accelerates, the > Fed missteps by draining liquidity too soon, or there is another > unforeseen shock to the system, then you can go with the lower of > these numbers. If we are distracted by the health care debate, emerging > market economies continue to perk up, and this strength helps our > technology stocks stay alive, then sleepy narrow trading ranges will > dominate, and the higher support levels will hold. But no matter > what happens, I will be able to come back to you in three months > and claim that I was right.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:05:49 -0400

On Jun 25 08:40 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Exactly. Now that we are solidly into a correction, I have been flooded
> with requests from readers to call the next bottom in the S&P
> 500. Well here it is. Brace yourself. Put it on a Post-it-Note on
> your computer. It is without a doubt and unquestionably going to
> be 880, 850, 830, 800, 750, 666, or 320. That last number works out
> to be 90% of the book value of the S&P 500, which was the low
> seen in the 1930s depression. Yes, that depression, not this one.
> You are really asking me to solve a one billion variable equation,
> because that is the number of direct and indirect participants in
> global stock markets. If the few green shoots out there start to
> die off, the meltdown in commercial real estate accelerates, the
> Fed missteps by draining liquidity too soon, or there is another
> unforeseen shock to the system, then you can go with the lower of
> these numbers. If we are distracted by the health care debate, emerging
> market economies continue to perk up, and this strength helps our
> technology stocks stay alive, then sleepy narrow trading ranges will
> dominate, and the higher support levels will hold. But no matter
> what happens, I will be able to come back to you in three months
> and claim that I was right.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561704 561704 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:40:30 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145067-why-interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-561620 561620 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:53:56 -0400
See:

The Risk in Long-Term Interest Rates & Stagflation.

blog.yield-curve.net/2...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145068-expect-the-unemployment-rate-to-increase?source=feed#comment-561616 561616 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:51:36 -0400
See:

Are We in the Keynes' Liquidity Trap, Yet?
blog.yield-curve.net/2...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561601 561601 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:35:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561598 561598 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:30:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561589 561589 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:22:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561578 561578 >a real rally is not in the works<< Hey, I'm as bearish as the next guy (and probably a lot more so), but to call a 40%+ move off the lows "not real" strikes me as kind of silly. If you put $100 in the SPY in early March and sold the shares for $140, was the money "real"? And if you shorted $100 worth at the March lows and you now have $60, are the losses not "real"? If you want to call it an unsustainable, "bear-market rally" (which, in fairness, you do say in the article), that's fine. But if you're playing for "real money" then it (was) certainly a "real rally".]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:14:10 -0400 >a real rally is not in the works<<

Hey, I'm as bearish as the next guy (and probably a lot more so), but to call a 40%+ move off the lows "not real" strikes me as kind of silly. If you put $100 in the SPY in early March and sold the shares for $140, was the money "real"? And if you shorted $100 worth at the March lows and you now have $60, are the losses not "real"? If you want to call it an unsustainable, "bear-market rally" (which, in fairness, you do say in the article), that's fine. But if you're playing for "real money" then it (was) certainly a "real rally".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561574 561574 The only recent positive I have seen marketwise supporting a real > rally is that techs have been leading the market. A true sign that > there is hope for real fundamental growth and progress. However, > I am uncertain if they can counter the strong downward forces this > time since the market is still experiencing funadamental slow correction > thanks to government meddling. > > Until the market can purge the bad debt and misallocated resources > of the last 10 years it will be hard to make headway. Delaying this > process only increases the chance that we get back to back recessions > or never get out of the one we are in. Look at Japan's bout with > QE and government meddling. When QE fails (there has never been a > case where it succeeded) it isn't pretty at all.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:09:07 -0400

On Jun 25 06:13 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> The only recent positive I have seen marketwise supporting a real
> rally is that techs have been leading the market. A true sign that
> there is hope for real fundamental growth and progress. However,
> I am uncertain if they can counter the strong downward forces this
> time since the market is still experiencing funadamental slow correction
> thanks to government meddling.
>
> Until the market can purge the bad debt and misallocated resources
> of the last 10 years it will be hard to make headway. Delaying this
> process only increases the chance that we get back to back recessions
> or never get out of the one we are in. Look at Japan's bout with
> QE and government meddling. When QE fails (there has never been a
> case where it succeeded) it isn't pretty at all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145252-the-rally-that-never-was?source=feed#comment-561555 561555 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 06:13:45 -0400
Until the market can purge the bad debt and misallocated resources of the last 10 years it will be hard to make headway. Delaying this process only increases the chance that we get back to back recessions or never get out of the one we are in. Look at Japan's bout with QE and government meddling. When QE fails (there has never been a case where it succeeded) it isn't pretty at all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145067-why-interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-561521 561521 Look, > > This Fed reporting is great for 2 reasons: > > 1. It means that the Fed realizes we are still needing a lot of help > to recover, and they are not going to start raising rates at the > wrong time. The last thing we need is financials having to worry > about this right now, with all their other issues. > > 2. It means that lower interest rates will stay. A lower monetary > policy signals lower interest rates, which is another bullish indicator. > > > David Ristau > President, The Oxen Group > > http://theoxengroup.com]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:51:01 -0400

On Jun 24 01:31 PM David Ristau wrote:

> Look,
>
> This Fed reporting is great for 2 reasons:
>
> 1. It means that the Fed realizes we are still needing a lot of help
> to recover, and they are not going to start raising rates at the
> wrong time. The last thing we need is financials having to worry
> about this right now, with all their other issues.
>
> 2. It means that lower interest rates will stay. A lower monetary
> policy signals lower interest rates, which is another bullish indicator.
>
>
> David Ristau
> President, The Oxen Group
>
> theoxengroup.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145067-why-interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-561444 561444 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:29:10 -0400
Good points in your article, but maybe based on the past?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145068-expect-the-unemployment-rate-to-increase?source=feed#comment-561015 561015 It's our fault for electing the idiots who are ruining this country. > And they keep getting elected because they know how to lie better > than their opponents. I wonder if New Zeland is accepting immigrants.]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:32:21 -0400
There are four main entry categories available for people wishing to migrate to New Zealand: Skilled Migrant, Work to Residence, Family, and Business. Doesn't sound much different than our, (the US's) requirements. Except that they probably enforce their laws. Maybe if we gave them a Statue or something they'd be more compassionate like us.

On Jun 24 11:41 AM semperpax wrote:

> It's our fault for electing the idiots who are ruining this country.
> And they keep getting elected because they know how to lie better
> than their opponents. I wonder if New Zeland is accepting immigrants.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145067-why-interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-560926 560926 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:54:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145068-expect-the-unemployment-rate-to-increase?source=feed#comment-560805 560805 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:30:04 -0400

And let's not forget about the debt that most people are dealing with along with the fact those who were doing pretty well and had money to invest are now down 40% from two years ago.

"The new normal" seems to be the phrase of the week and it sure is more accurate than "green shoots" but I have to wonder if things aren't still on a rather severe downward course, given all the data I have seen lately suggesting we are simply in a phase of relief in the the middle of a true depression.

Gene Inger calls this a "controlled depression" and that seems about right. I think the powers-that-be have managed to keep the financial structure fom imploding but the cost will be a longer despression with little opportunity for a recovery because all the failures are still alive and kicking while those who didn't fail are literally paying for their sins.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145068-expect-the-unemployment-rate-to-increase?source=feed#comment-560782 560782 Even a child with a ruler could work out that the curve is not going > to stop anywhere near 10%. What do they do in the White House apart > from hangout and chewgum?]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:10:23 -0400

On Jun 24 07:39 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Even a child with a ruler could work out that the curve is not going
> to stop anywhere near 10%. What do they do in the White House apart
> from hangout and chewgum?]]>