Bill Cunningham

Long/short equity
Bill Cunningham
Long/short equity
Contributor since: 2013
@Commonsense,
"cparmerlee.......Or are you just hurt because Elon has scratched you off the GF list?"
CParm,
No Tesla for You!
@toruoneo,
"When you come the next time let me know in advance and I can give you 10% off on Tesla rental,"
Thanks for offer. Hopefully, Stalin, oops, I mean Putin, won't get there first.
@Bizlike,
"Here is the link: http://bit.ly/1SHUZFD.
Those that short TSLA based on flawed wishful thinking will be crashed again."
This is exactly what the shorts are saying. Where is the money going to come for to build this plant?. The author is saying the opposite, that this size plant is not needed.
@WFA,
"When there is basically no news and a big drop..."
Three major downgrades in three days isn't news?
@Toruono,
"The people who make such claims just don't understand Tesla and its plan at all. How many have read the 2006 super secret master plan post?
http://bit.ly/1IdVVSp"
Thanks for the link. I saw this in it.
"Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more
affordable. In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible"
Musk doesn't seem to be keeping to this part of the plan. The S is not half the price of the roadster, and the X is even more expensive, not less expensive than the S. Cash flow is also horrendously negative, roughly $2 billion in 2015. That's why they had to do a stock offering last August and had to pledge many of their assets for a $750 million working capital facility.
@toruono,
"But you'll see my pic on teslarent.eu under contacts. Of those 7 cars three are in final delivery stage arriving in Feb-March."
Does Tesla give you a discount on your bulk purchases?
PS I was in Estonia last June (one day, off a cruse ship).
@Runiter,
"Yes I know the article is about worldwide subsidies. The point of this article is that solar has to compete not only with USA oil subsidies but also with middle eastern oil subsidies."
Thanks for the link. A whole article (or book) could be written on that data. A few thngs to consider, however.
- Oil exporting nations subsidizing the cost of oil for their own citizens has nothing to do with oil being subsidized in the US. and therefore being a competitive issue for SCTY.
-Quoting numbers from the period 1950 to 2010 is outdated data, of course since the renewable energy industry didn't exist for much of that period. We need to look at numbers for the most recent year, or at least the period since SCTY went public in 2012 to since we discussing whether SCTY and the solar industry is at a competitive disadvantage or not.
- The Congressional Budget Office figures in the article show that the vast majority of federal expenditures are for renewable and energy efficiency initiatives. Less than 20% was for fossil rule activities.
The article is also inconsistent regarding what it calls subsidies. One of the subsidies it mentioned was "oil also benefited heavily from regulatory subsidies such as exemptions from price controls and higher-than-average rates of return allowed on oil pipelines."
So is it subsidy when oil prices are kept low by the government or a subsidy when the government doesn't control prices? You've got to pick one or the other.
@Isellcars,
"The CFO leaving was the first sign Tesla was headed for trouble."
It will be interesting to see how the new CFO handles himself next week. Will he allow himself to become "a little bit pregnant" on the call?
Bryce,
I'm glad to hear I'm not the only one having this problem.
@MikeyMike,
"Its not just the x profits that will finance the model 3, model s profits will also contribute. There are 2 models now which makes it possible."
There are no profits to contribute. Ongoing operating expenses are consuming the entire gross margin plus some.
@Makeymike2,
"If you were reading here for a few years you would know surfer invested when Tesla was trading for less than 50 bucks a share. He is still smiling, believe me."
That means Surfer has also been invested since Tesla has been over 280.
@Simpleton,
"When looking at the overall picture, it appears favorably positioned to continue its high-growth path".
What high growth path? We'll get Q4 installations next week, but they were estimating 260-280 mw. They are projecting about 1.25 mw for 2016, which is about 300 mw/qtr, so minimal growth there. They are trying to sell some of their contracts, and another commenter has stated that they are no longer selling PPA's (yes, I know unverified), so they are definitely NOT positioned for growth. If they were, they would be raising capital, not selling assets. .
"
@Runiter,
Did you actually read the article? The only examples they gave in the article were subsidies in the Middle East:
"The IEA singled out the Middle East as a region where fossil fuel subsidies are hampering renewables. It said 2 million barrels per day of oil are burned to generate power that could otherwise come from renewables, which would be competitive with unsubsidized oil.
“In Saudi Arabia, the additional upfront cost of a car twice as fuel efficient as the current average would at present take 16 years to recover through lower spending on fuel,” the IEA said. “This payback period would shrink to three years if gasoline were not subsidized.”"
In addition, EVERYTHING is subsidized in Saudi Arabia.
@ DAVE_M
"You get extra points if you can recover it."
...and you lose points, (16 today so far) if you can't deliver a car on time and within budget.
infamartworks,
"source ?"
On CNBC yesterday morning. His comments were brutal, almost as brutal as today's stock price drop.
@Tim,
"TSLA is and has been misunderstood for years now, but the veil has been lifted and the full understanding of what this 'thing' for lack of a better word is really worth is, as we observe, now in the process of coming to fruition. 05 Feb 2016, 01:28 PM "
I am able to see into the future when I read your comment, literally. Your time stamp says 1:28 pm, but it's only 1:06 pm now! (Some weird things seem to be happening with the new improved SA site.)
@EVfan12,
"Must should start a company called "Musk Finance" using his personal fortune to finance it."
Most of his personal fortune is tied up in Tesla, SCTY, and Space-x stock, and he already has margin loans against some of that.
@Zwalderon,
"Why are you guys so negative?"
Personally, I'm no more negative than the company's cash flow.
@Cparm,
"But if you want a drinking game for the ER conference call, take a shot any time you hear one of these:...."
I actually suspect it might be a "sobering" conference call.
I also suspect Tesla is going to get some phone calls today from a few of their more high profile analysts who will have some pointed questions for them.
@LT
">>...a loan from SpaceX...<<
Lol! I get it now-- you were just kidding! Good one!"
Well as soon as SCTY repays the $165 million they borrowed from Space-X, which is due in a couple of months, they can re-lend it to Tesla. (He says with a sarcastic smile)
@Jack,
"A $2 billion worldwide Supercharger network that no other auto company can afford to think about duplicating for at least five years,"
According to the most recent 10-Q, Tesla has a $150 million supercharger network: Where is the other $1.85 billion coming from?
"As of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the net book value of our Supercharger network was $152.4 million and $107.8 million and currently includes 536 locations globally."
They spent about $45 million ($152.4-107.8 million) in the first nine month of 2015. At $15 million/qtr., it will only take 30 years to get to $2 billion!
@Jack,
" If Elon was seriously worried about Tesla's ability to borrow, he would not have created a huge tax bill for himself by exercising options on over 500k shares ahead of next week's earnings release."
You're thinking exactly what Elon wants you to think.
User,
Faraday's car looks like a batmobile.
@Ruffdog,
"KMI has a massive amount of assets that are fully depreciated assets that "barley" show up..."
I find your comment a bit "corny."
Hollidayday,
"They're already aiming for 50% growth year over year for the next 10 years"
..and I'm aiming to be a billionaire.
@robiniv,
"Does anybody here know which relation Musk has with Bloomberg?"
It wasn't Bloomberg, but "Bloomberg Pursuits", Bloomberg's "lifestyle magazine" aka advertising rag. Look at the link more carefully.
@Ted,
"Not to mention the fact that electric cars are nicer to drive then gasoline engine cars all other factors being equal I would drive an electric car over gasoline even if it were more expensive to operate which it is not."
That's nice, but the real question for this site, which is focused on investments, is whether the company selling you the car can make a profit.
Tesla:You Gotta Believe"
Gee, I thought this was an investment site rather than one for worshiping a god.
Tesla stock misunderstood; it's overvalued, but becoming better understood by the day..
@surfer,
"Every time I go fill up at one of the cheap gas stations I find on Gasbuddy.com there is a line ( queue ).

Every time."
It's funny how Tesla bulls have so many more problems with their Ice cars than Tesla bears and even have unusually bad luck having to wait on long lines at gas stations.
@Montana,
"I think he can probably do that. I have three of them. I have it on good authority that Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, and the Three Stooges are all on board as well."
I tried to call Tesla to verify your claim, but it appears their phone is "off the hook."
@Sech,
"The reason Elon excercused the option was because he knew this was the lowest floor. The price will only goes up from here. Make a favor to yourself, buy some shares"
So much for that theory. The stock is down $25 in the past two days.