Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Bill Cunningham  

View Bill Cunningham's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 5 Basic Materials Dogs Mark 25.89% Upside Edge Over March Top Ten [View article]
    "Two refining and marketing firms placed in the top ten by yield: BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) [6] was sixth..."

    BP Prudhoe Bay is NOT a refining and marketing firm. As the name implies, it is a Royalty Trust and has an interest in the Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska. It also does not have an 18% yield. The price has been plummeting along with oil prices due increasing recognition that the next payment will only be about $1. Furthermore, much of this payment is effectively a return of capital, something most investors do not understand.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    I believe you are the one who is missing the big picture. What does your model show the value of BPT would be if oil returns to $90 in 2016 an then increases $10/brl. thereafter? What does your model show the value of Apache Petroleum or other E&P companies would be under such a scenario?
    Mar 29, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    "After all, only a fool wouldn't be scared shorting a good bit of money in a bull market, regardless of the stock, especially one that is a proxy for something as volatile and unpredictable as oil."

    The whole point is that this is no longer a good proxy for oil due to the termination/ sunsetting provisions of the trust, specifically the rapid increase in the ADJ. chargeable cost beginning in 2018. If you're bullish on oil, invest in an E &P company that will be able to survive temporary weakness and thrive when/if oil recovers.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    "then I guess in 13 years we will find out how much the reserves are worth and what the final payout is to the unit holders."

    I know NOW that the payment will basically be 0; I called the Trustee and asked a couple of years ago. I recommend you do the same since you seem to think all the shorts here are just making stuff up to scare retail investors.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    "Doom and gloom" calculations?? They are based upon $96 wti and for purposes of determining the annual increases in the adj. chargeable cost calculation assume 0% cpi.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    "Can you imagine what it was like to be short when that $3.61 distribution was announced for fourth quarter 2009? I feel sorry for they guys who got trapped short on that one while they pounded the table citing all of their earnings and value calculations and estimated termination dates and 8-K disclosures as proof for why the trade shouldn't be going against them."

    What evidence do you have that people got "trapped short" then?
    Mar 29, 2015. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Thank you malevy. You have given me absolute confidence in my short position which I plan to increase prior to April 3.

    BTW, if oil averages $70 in 2015 (it was less than $50 in the first quarter), what do you expect to see for the estimated termination date of the Trust in the 2015 10-K to be issued in Feb./March 2016?
    Mar 29, 2015. 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Making Storage The Hot New Trend In Solar [View article]
    winfield,

    My vision horizon only extends to my life horizon, which means another 50 years if I live as long as the oldest person I've ever known.
    Mar 22, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Making Storage The Hot New Trend In Solar [View article]
    winfield100,

    My vision horizon is less than infinity.
    Mar 22, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Making Storage The Hot New Trend In Solar [View article]
    Matt,

    "4th obstacle (Long Term) abundance of raw materials for continued production of both batteries and solar cells - specifically - the scarcity of rare earth elements.
    Solution - SpaceX - The Mining and Colonizing of space where rare earth elements are abundant."

    I think you're reaching more than a bit here.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy - Does Mr. Market Expect A Second Distribution Cut For This 11% Yielder? [View article]
    KirbyJF1,

    This looks to me like potentially bad news for LINN. Industry insiders are realizing short term prospects are so bad, they're choosing not to invest in more production right now.
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Starting Its Own Grid Infrastructure [View article]
    Surfgeezer,

    Thanks! I learned much more from your comments than from the article itself.
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors talks range and self-driving features [View news story]
    Jeremy,

    With your Volt, you can also use gas as a back up , right? That's the best way to address range anxiety.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    SeatleView,

    Hopefully, you noticed the author changed his view and sold his position a few days after writing the article?
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Yogi6262,

    Thank you. You did a tremendous job of making my point. I haven't done the detailed calculations myself, but I knew off the top of my head that the trust is worth a whole lot less than the current value, even under reasonably optimistic assumptions. That's all I needed to know to make my investment decision.

    Some posters here seem to think that the negative commentary assumes WTI at its current level, which is not the case at all.
    Mar 19, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
328 Comments
349 Likes