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Bill Cunningham  

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  • Tesla Model X May Cause More Problems Than It Solves [View article]
    Dan,

    I could see the gull-wing doors being a problem if they were for the driver, but since they are just passenger doors, would it be that much of a problem for the passengers to get to before pulling into a tight nyc parking garage spot? Even with my regular doors, I occasionally have to let passengers out before pulling over to a curb, due to a bush, a puddle, a snowdrift etc. Am I missing something?
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model X May Cause More Problems Than It Solves [View article]
    Stephen,

    Tesla doesn't EARN 25-27% on model S's. that's its GROSS Margin. For starters you have to subtract out the cost of its sales staff, showrooms etc., including most, if not all of the staff in China, which is now 400 (down from 600), administrative and support staff at Tesla headquarters, plus I am sure a laundry list of other items, before determining how much Tesla is actually "earning", which is why Tesla is currently not earning anything.

    Most of the investment items you list, such as the supercharger network do not negatively affect earnings. They are capitalized as investments on the balance sheet. (Ultimately over a number of years, those items will show up as depreciation expense as the item, such as a supercharger, wears out.) The investment for those items is why Tesla has to continually borrow money and raise capital.

    To give one example, reports indicate the company has spent around $200 million on the gigafactory so far. I am sure that none of this shows as an expense on Tesla's income statement. The company won't even start depreciating it until at least the first phase is in operation.

    It appears that a major reason many Tesla investors think it will be easy for Tesla to transition to a profitable and cash flow positive company is because they don't understand this.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk: Preorders start soon for Tesla for the masses [View news story]
    biffster,

    I see that Paulo has just published an article called "Honey I Shrank the Gigafactory." I'm not a premium subscriber, so I'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if he has any interesting insights on the subject.
    Sep 3, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model X May Cause More Problems Than It Solves [View article]
    Room A..,

    Thanks!
    Sep 3, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model X May Cause More Problems Than It Solves [View article]
    Randy,

    "5) constructed what will be the largest, most efficient battery manufacturing facility on earth (beginning production by year-end)."

    Check this link.

    http://on.rgj.com/1L7D0n1

    It says, in part:
    "Panasonic plans to send hundreds of employees to Tesla Motors' gigafactory site east of Reno-Sparks later this year (article dated June 8), Reuters reported on Monday. The company, which made the announcement during a briefing with reporters in Osaka, Japan, says its workers will help prepare the site so it can start producing batteries by next year."

    There is also an interesting photo progression on the newspaper's site; it shows the steel structure being fireproofed, a project "expected to be completed by November". As a result, I would suspect the plant will not be beginning production by ye.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model X May Cause More Problems Than It Solves [View article]
    Room and Nice,

    I never hear discussion of annual insurance costs for a Tesla. I assume a $80-100,000 ASP Tesla has higher insurance premiums than a $55-66,000 ASP SUV, which would offset at least some the fuel savings of a Tesla. Does anyone have any figures for this?
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk: Preorders start soon for Tesla for the masses [View news story]
    I find it very interesting that the requirement for a fully operational gigafactory was mentioned in the tweet. Here's my admittedly speculative theory on what the plan may be:

    -It appears Tesla may need another capital raise the middle of next year to finish the gigafactory
    -Underwriters/investors would want some confidence that there will actually be sufficient demand for the batteries once the gigafactory is completed.
    -Having a lot of pre-orders for the model 3 would provide some confidence on this issue.
    -If I'm right, expect to see a surprisingly low deposit requirement for the 3. High perceived demand will be more important than any cash from large deposit amounts/car. (and, hey, if you get 4 times as many orders with a $500 dep. as you would get with a $2000 deposit, you've raised the same amount of cash anyway.)
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk: Preorders start soon for Tesla for the masses [View news story]
    No mention of the deposit size? Can Tesla just spend the deposits or do they need to go into an escrow account of some type?
    Sep 2, 2015. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times downgrades Adam Jonas [View news story]
    cparmelee,

    Usually, I agree with your comments, but in this case I think you are wrong. Didn't he say late in the summer (which ends Sept. 21)? Or was it 2013? I can't remember now. (lol)
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire returns to energy sector with $4.5B stake in Phillips 66 [View news story]
    A Buffett can make you rich, a buffet can make you fat. Here's a link that combines the two:

    http://bit.ly/1MZSzBP
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Tesla Motors' China Turnaround [View article]
    @potpie,

    Much relieved to hear there's no cannibalism so far. What about cannabalisation, however?
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: You Are Funding Elon Musk's Iron Man Lifestyle [View article]
    Holiday and II,

    I'm very curious to see him on Colbert or another "quasi" live interview. In the photos he's sporting some facial hair, and I've noticed that when TV personalities etc. make hair style changes, they're frequently trying to distract from something else. I suspect the Forbes photos are a combo. of airbrushing and some cosmetic surgery; at a minimum, hair transplants and possibly something for the circles under his eyes.

    I normally like to focus on financials, and Musk cosmetics is frankly irrelevant. I'm being bad and admitting it by gossiping like this, but it's fun once in a while.

    Maybe if we had a model x to talk about, I wouldn't bring this up??
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just A 'Hard Landing?' [View article]
    ghiblinewt,

    Thanks! I googled Chang's name and found this. It's two years old, but has some interesting insights.
    http://tinyurl.com/pm4...
    Aug 31, 2015. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just A 'Hard Landing?' [View article]
    Zhang,

    Thanks for confirming my suspicions.
    Aug 30, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire returns to energy sector with $4.5B stake in Phillips 66 [View news story]
    jj1937,

    Because Buffett knows how do do a DCF and can figure out when something is overvalued!! Would you pay $100 million for a gorgeous mansion that is only worth $50 million?

    PS Rating was 103, even though reliability was only average; makes me wonder about CR.
    Aug 30, 2015. 04:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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