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Bill Cunningham  

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  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: J.P. Morgan Says Sell - Stock Will Go Below $40 [View article]
    linkdonald,

    I may be reading too much into your comment, but you seem to be implying that BP's Gulf of Mexico problem is somehow connected to BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust, the subject of this article. They are totally separate legal entities, so no connection. BP could go bankrupt and there should be no effect on the value/cash flows of BP Prudhoe Bay.

    However, I also really like the fact that you mention Petroleum and Resources Corp (PEO) . I had written a positive article about it here two years ago as an attractive alternative to BPT. Although due to the decrease in oil prices, PEO is down some since then, BPT is down by a much bigger percentage. I am certain the performance gap, no matter what oil prices do in the future, will become even more apparent in the future. It is a much better risk/return bet.

    Here's a link to my article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors adding staff to storage business unit [View news story]
    Just Some Guy,

    That's a great idea! Tesla should build a factory at the top of Mt.Whitney and deliver them at the bottom. The car's batteries can be charged at no cost on the way down.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors adding staff to storage business unit [View news story]
    cparmalee,

    I 100% agree with you.

    This is just like the telephone survey that was done for the 1936 Presidential election, which showed that Alf Landon would beat Roosevelt by 57% to 43%.

    News Flash: Roosevelt won 68% to 38%.

    The reason? Only rich Republicans had phones in 1936!

    Most of the readers here are already Tesla investors, so there is a similar bias to this survey question.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors adding staff to storage business unit [View news story]
    vector_us,

    Tesla doesn't manufacture solar panels. Solar City, another company that Czar Elon I (for you "Muskovites," get it? ) chairs and has an investment in, plans to manufacture solar panels soon, but that won't necessarily benefit Tesla. Solar City is a separate public company and Musk has a fiduciary duty to maximize earnings (or at least minimize losses) for their shareholders.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Fred,

    Yes, I agree that there is basically a 0 chance that the Trust will go out of business in three years; my "most likely" scenario is 10 years or so. However, payments will begin decreasing rapidly in a few years, even if oil prices recover, so the likelihood of investors getting their original investment back, assuming they recently bought it at around $65, is also almost 0, based upon various scenarios I have modeled.

    However, I also believe that the likelihood of the payment in April being around $1.25 is also almost 0. The Trust earned no more than $.65 in Jan. and Feb. (possibly a bit less subtracting out taxes). To earn an additional $.60 in March, WTI will have to average around $70, and I believe the chances of that are basically 0; we are already a few days into the month at about $50. (WTI will have to average over $75 for the remainder of the month for the April distribution to be $1.25 or more.)
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    lol
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Alexander,

    I believe not just your analysis, but also the title of your article is a bit off. The expression I think you were looking for is "Blood in the Streets", not "Blood in the Water". There's an Investopedia entry for "Blood in the Streets" but not "Blood in the Water." Here's what it says about "Blood in the Streets."

    [Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

    He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon. But that's not the whole story. The original quote is believed to be "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."]*

    * Everything in brackets is directly from Investopedia.

    Here's the link to the article:

    http://bit.ly/10MRRjW
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty files to delay its 10-K [View news story]
    Yogi6262,

    Thanks! I learned something today...
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty files to delay its 10-K [View news story]
    Yogi262,

    Although I am confident that the issue was the recent "after the fact adjustments" for the past three quarters, and I agree that I would not expect any further material financial adjustments, I just read the SEC filing and do not see anything where the Trustee indicated there will "not be any significant change in results" What is your source of that information?

    Here's the text portion of the filing:

    "The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. (the “Trustee”), as trustee of BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty (the “Trust”), is submitting this notice of the late filing of the Trust’s annual report on Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2014 (the “Form 10-K”). The Trustee has identified a material weakness in the Trust’s internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2014, and the Trustee is evaluating the impact of this material weakness on the Trust’s disclosure controls and procedures and the Management’s Annual Report on Internal Control Over Financial Reporting. The Trust expects to disclose in the 2014 Form 10-K that its disclosure controls and procedures and its internal control over financial reporting were not effective as of December 31, 2014. The Trustee intends to file the Form 10-K as soon as practicable after such evaluation has been completed and in any event on or before the fifteenth calendar day following the current required filing date."

    If anyone wants to double check to see if I've missed something, here's the link to the SEC filing:

    http://1.usa.gov/1BHmN7Q

    My point on the distribution amounts is that the drop from to $2.69 to under $1 in April will be a shock and much more negative event than if the payments had been reported correctly and the reported drop would have only been from $2.25 to less than $1. The timing is very poor for this error since it occurred just before a big natural decrease in the distribution anyway. To plagiarize a recent BPT SA article, there will be "Blood in the Water" in April. (Hmm.... I always thought it was "Blood in the Streets"... I must be a landlubber....)
    
    Mar 4, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty files to delay its 10-K [View news story]
    Yogi262,

    The last three Trust payments were calculated and/or reported incorrectly. The June payment should have been $3.15 but was reported as $3.03, the September payment should have been $2.40 but was reported as $2.07 while the January payment of $2.69 was increased by $.44 to make up for these shortfalls; the actual amount earned for the fourth quarter was actually only about $2.25, but this was not disclosed in the press release.

    Investors have made purchase, sale or hold decisions since last June based upon the reported amounts. There are investors who were underpaid in June and September and may have sold prior to the January adjusted payment, so they were permanently shorted by $.44 in income. They also probably would have gotten more for their shares if the higher correct amounts had been initially reported.

    Others may have bought when they saw how strong the January payment was and thought this would continue, but are now underwater on their investment. They will be really shocked when the upcoming payment is under $1. It is clear from the articles and postings here that BPT investors usually buy strictly for the payments so the stock would have traded differently if the amounts had been reported correctly in the first place.

    Based upon this, there is a possibility that BPT will be facing shareholder lawsuits. Not sure what your definition of a material financial issue is, but I would consider this to be one.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: J.P. Morgan Says Sell - Stock Will Go Below $40 [View article]
    You can get back to us in one decade. It will have terminated, or at least almost terminated by them.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty files to delay its 10-K [View news story]
    srdillsc,

    Books appear to be a bit questionable but are now being corrected. I would sell my position and wait to get back in until the 10-K is released, the auditors issue their opinion, and the April distribution is announced. Until then, BPT is a landmine.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty files to delay its 10-K [View news story]
    ??$16 cash? What are you referring to? You'll be lucky to get more than $4-5 this year. The April payment will be under $1 and possibly as low as $.85. WTI is low and production appears to be decreasing rapidly at Prudhoe Bay. Do your research.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Anuj,

    It's EXTREMELY BULLISH for the bears!! Grrrrrrrrr....
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    In case anyone hasn't noticed, BPT is delaying its annual report filing, as reported by "Seeking Alpha" due to a "material weakness in its internal controls. Although the reason isn't specified, I'm sure it is the issue raised in my article on Jan. 30. It's VERY odd that they delayed the filing; they could have done it on time and simply raised the issue about the internal control issues in their audit report.

    Here are links to the SA announcement today and my Jan 30 article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In light of this event, some of the skeptics regarding my view that BPT is overvalued might want to reconsider their positon.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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