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Bill Houseman

 
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  • We're Drowning In Crude Oil [View article]
    Good article, and great table of energy companies!

    Yes, oil's price has reacted to Supply / Demand, but the Supply is rigged, as are most markets now. Why would the Saudis pump 10 million barrels per day (mbpd) for $50 each, when they can pump 5 mbpd for $100 each? Obama has coerced them into doing it, taking a page from Pres Reagan's playbook as a way to crash Russia's economy.

    It is working. As soon as Putin understands his position in the big scheme of things and backs off Ukraine and ends threats to cut off oil to Europe, then with lessons learned the Saudis can close the spigots.

    The return of Crimea to Ukraine, withdrawal of Russians from east Ukraine and/or a change in top leadership in Russia wil signal the end of cheap oil.

    Unintended consequencies are popping up, however. No one cares if the fracking oil companies go bust, but the Fed cares deeply about letting banks go under due to their loan defaults.

    For this to work out best for the US, Russia must cave before the banks. Either way, oil's price won't stay low longer than a few more months. Check the table above and decide which companies have had their stock price pummeled, but can survive six months of low petroleum prices.
    Jan 11, 2015. 11:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Receives Key Mexican Government Endorsement [View article]
    You guys are great! I did not know this info existed. Thanks, Murph and Perry.

    From Perry, this is a link to Brinker's past holdings of OMEX, showing they have about 15 million shares, but never had much more than that:
    http://bit.ly/1xI5d2x
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Receives Key Mexican Government Endorsement [View article]
    26922203 - Please send us a link to Brinker Capital's holdings. I found their three Crystal Funds held only 63,644 shares of OMEX as of Mar 31, 2014.
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Seems Like Hedge Funds Are Jumping Into The Gold Market [View article]
    Author writes: "This suggests to us, based on our belief that we're seeing a lot of new hedge fund/trader entrants in the gold market, that the volume being added is primarily short interest."

    This is yet another excellent article from Hebba, but I would like to comment:

    GDX is not a closed-end fund, but tries to replicate the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index. When more people buy GDX than sell, the Fund buys more underlying stocks, increasing the number of GDX shares outstanding. Share count would be more indicative of increased interest.

    As for short interest, Shortsqueeze.com shows recent short interest. Rather than guessing that short interest is increasing, this data is available there. Unfortunately, I have not been collecting this data. Nor do I know how to take downloaded data from the past, which they sell, and display it as a chart. A chart showing share count and one of short interest would be instructive.

    It should be noted that short interest in most gold miners is virtually non-existent, and has been for a year or more. No one expects these share prices to fall from here.

    It could be that the increased volume reflects increased buying of underlying shares, but not enough to counter current tax-loss selling of those shares. That would be the best situation for a gold bug like myself. Tax-loss selling will end in another week.
    Dec 21, 2014. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Receives Key Mexican Government Endorsement [View article]
    I don't think I have ever heard of a "long squeeze".
    Yahoo shows institutions holding 39% of the stock, or 33 million shares. If OMEX is going bankrupt, why are they still in?
    I'm just looking at the Risk-Reward ratio - the total Risk is $1 on the downside, the Reward is potentially $10+ on the upside, not counting the short squeeze. This Ratio looks good to me.
    The shorts undoubtedly have a paper profit, but they cannot turn their profit into cash. When they start buying to cover their short sales this new Demand will quickly cause the price to rise due to the low volume, wiping out their profit. An OMEX bankrupty is the shorts' only hope now, they are stuck in their position.
    If OMEX pulls off any one of the deals underway, the shorts are toast.
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Receives Key Mexican Government Endorsement [View article]
    Meson, are you sure you have a successful strategy for selling short? If you really think OMEX is going bankrupt, then you ought to be praising the company so as to entice more buyers. This would force up the stock price so you could sell short more shares at higher prices.
    With daily volume at 250,000 shares, the 19 million shares of short sales cannot be covered. If there was a little excitement, volume would increase as remaining disillusioned shareholders bailed out at slightly higher prices.
    When you bad-mouth the company at this low level with questionable assertions, it appears that you are desperately trying to salvage a large short position. Everyone who is going to sell at this low level has already done so. That's why the volume is so low, even with this brief period of tax-loss selling which is ending in a few days.
    I admit I am not an expert short-seller, but I don't think I would do it this way.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Receives Key Mexican Government Endorsement [View article]
    I see today (12/16/2014) the volume for OMEX is 274,000 shares, and the shares sold short are still over 19 million. The short sellers are not covering their shorts. With such low volume, any increased buying would boost the stock price dramatically. The only possible profitable exit for the shorts is for OMEX to file for bankruptcy. They seem convinced it will happen, and are sitting back and waiting, oblivious to the positive outcomes coming in the near future.

    Having been subjected lately to such a successful negative PR campaign, it is difficult to imagine what is going to happen to the stock price when it starts up forcing the shorts to cover, and being boosted by new buyers jumping on the train.

    I would never advise spending stock profits before they arrive, but now that tax loss selling will soon end, there will probably not be a better time to buy than now.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Just Oil: Guess What Happened The Last Time Commodity Prices Crashed Like This? [View article]
    Actually, nickel's price is not collapsing, nor is aluminum's: http://bit.ly/1wmj2BE

    World commodities are priced using an average of currency values. When the Dollar is up, as it is now, you should expect the commodity price level to be down when priced in Dollars.

    Your article is a great theory, but the facts are not as you suggest.
    Dec 13, 2014. 07:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Phosphate In Very Remote Area [View article]
    Last chance to Buy Low?

    Tax loss selling for 2014 is underway for the next few weeks, and there are lots of investors with losses. They can take their loss on OMEX stock and offset gains on other stocks. But that should be the end of downside pressure. Good news announcements should boost the stock price, and there is potential for good news about a number of situations; monetizing SS CA, salvaging HMS Victory, permits for Oceanica, maybe a surprise or two. The year 2015 should be a lot better than 2014.
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Phosphate In Very Remote Area [View article]
    With 327 million tons of ore, yielding 18% salable phosphate, sold at $110 / ton, gives $6.47 billion the deposit is worth. They will find investors if necessary. But the longer it takes, the more the profits will have to be shared. If OMEX ends up with only 20% , (they have 52% now) that's still $1.3 billion, or $26 million annually for 50 years, which should cover their overhead.
    Dec 2, 2014. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boskalis Is A Possible OMEX Partner In Oceanica [View article]
    Good eye, Pequod! I had not seen this. - Bill
    Nov 20, 2014. 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Preps Excuses For Oceanica Failure, Looks To Recycle Old Projects, Dilute [View article]
    Actually, phosphate is selling now at $110 per ton, delivered in Morocco, the dominant world source. Compare shipping cost from Morocco to Mexico with shipping from 25 miles offshore Mexico. Phosphate sold as high as $410 in 2008.

    http://bit.ly/11gnt4u

    It is in the national interest of Mexico to develop the Don Diego project. I see the environmental issues as just another obstacle which will be overcome, maybe with surreptitious national support.

    Differences of opinion are what make markets. But, I'll bet I'm a lot more comfortable being long than you are being short.
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Preps Excuses For Oceanica Failure, Looks To Recycle Old Projects, Dilute [View article]
    Oceanica is not a mining venture, but a dredging operation. The technology for dredging at 250 feet is well developed, although this depth will require something more than standard harbor dredging equipment.


    OMEX says the "overburden" (sand, shells) is minimal. You dredge the material off the sea floor, pump it into a barge, separate the overburden out and return that to the sea floor. Then the remaining material containing phosphate is processed and the 18% P2O5 separated out and sold as a fertilizer component.


    Mining expertise is of limited use for this project. You want a large maritime operator like Boskalis as a partner.


    I can't see OMEX developing Oceanica. They will probably partner with a large established company for a percentage of the profits. Not bad since this is said to be a 50 year project. As the name implies, OMEX is an exploration company.
    Nov 16, 2014. 02:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Preps Excuses For Oceanica Failure, Looks To Recycle Old Projects, Dilute [View article]
    CaptTurbo - They are not covering their shorts because now they cannot. There are too many shares sold short. Average daily volume is under half a million shares. With a steady 19.5 million shares sold short, it would take more than 39 trading days, provided there were no new buyers. As soon as they start to cover, the price will rise. Once the price rise begins, new buyers will jump in. The shorts have missed their chance. Another positive announcement by OMEX, and the fun should start.
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is More Dilution Coming Soon For Odyssey Shareholders? [View article]
    With OMEX's share of the CA recovery estimated at $50 million, the forecasts of running out of money seem far fetched. Some length of time must be alloted for the individual examination of 16,000 coins, but it may be assumed the most salable coins will be looked at first. If low cash on hand becomes a problem, then some coins will be monetized.

    This same problem existed after the first CA salvage was terminated due to legal difficulties twenty years ago, in fact the situation was probably worse then. But those coins were sold.

    Instead of a bankruptcy filing, the more likely announcement is of coin sales which thereby replenish OMEX' treasury, ensuring salvage of the HMS Victory. This should give a major boost to the stock price. Eventual Mexican government approval of the Oceanica project and the shorts are dead meat.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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