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Bill Houseman

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  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    I was amused to see Yahoo Finance shows (fifth data line from top) a 1yr Target Est at $6.50. They must own the stock, too.
    Jul 7 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    The more I read here, the more convinced I am that there are some smart cookies commenting on this blog. I am grateful to benefit from your expertise and imagination. I never would have thought of this. To piggyback on your suggestion, however, does anyone use ancestry.com ? Try Smith, Jones or Brown, deceased soldier, Sept 1857, at sea.
    Jul 4 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Ship - This conclusion may be overly optimistic. Having spent a little time on ships (well, really a tugboat) the usual reason you cut short a voyage is to fix something that has gone wrong. And there are lots of things that can go wrong that cannot be fixed at sea. If they are 160 miles out, that's too far for most helicopters to ferry parts. Could they not just buy more insurance if the recovery demands it?
    Jul 2 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    OMEX is obviously a very unique company. Perhaps the closest conventional industry is mining. OMEX has a permitting phase, then an exploration phase, then a production phase followed by a conversion of product into current money. The phase of separating out minerals from earth is avoided. OMEX mined silver last year and now is mining gold. Oceanica will mine phosphates.

    Let's assume a typical mining company has a P/E of 15. Let's also assume OE will recover $100 mil worth of product this year. (If an ounce sold at $6700 twenty years ago, they should get $10,000 per ounce today. They will need to recover 10,000 ounces this summer.) Subtract $5 mil to operate the ship. Then 45% of $95 mil is $42,750,000. Say $10 mil to operate the company, and earnings are $32.75 mil for the year. Divided by 83 mil shares, this is about 40 cents/ share. A P/E of 15 yields $6 per share.

    Among the unknowns, the two most important I think are the price of gold, and the reaction of the shorts. I think gold is done base-building and is starting up. Will the shorts hang in there if the stock price goes to $6? Doubtful. Short covering will drive the stock price higher. Coming off a successful salvage this year, what if the HMS Victory salvage is approved this fall or winter? That promises to make a very succesful year next year. Will OMEX be relisted in the R-2000 next year? That is probably worth $1 per share.

    What is the downside? At $1.50 per share, I just don't see any.
    Jun 25 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    OMEX has not announced the cost of having Odyssey Explorer on site, except that it is significantly cheaper than the Russian ship used for Gairsoppa last year, which was $100,000 per day.
    Let's say it is $60,000 per day for OE. As a ballpark estimate, if they can sell a $20 gold coin for $6000, then the recovery of 10 coins per day pays for the ship. There were probably more than 10 coins in each cabin.
    I would expect the ship to be on-station until the first hurricane arrives, probably in September, or maybe later. Windy winter weather does not come to Charleston until October.
    Jun 24 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    We'll have to remember this and anticipate Fund buying next April when OMEX goes back into the R2000. They ought to be over HMS Victory by then, as well.
    Jun 16 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    I have investigated the Russell Indices and believe the following to be correct. Their web site is http://www.russell.com .
    The Russell 3000 is comprised of the top 3000 US stocks, by valuation. Russell 1000 is the top 1000 of these, and the Russell 2000 is the bottom 2000 of these.
    The list is "reconstituted" annually, in June.
    A company with a market cap (shares outstanding x price) of less than the lowest of the 3000 will not be included, and OMEX is currently lower and is being de-listed.
    Obviously, a stock index fund tracking the Russell 2000 cannot include any stock not in the Russell 2000. So if a stock is being kicked out, these Funds have to liquidate those stocks. These sales, of course, add to the downward pressure on the stock price.
    The lowest martket cap in the R2000 is about $129 mil, and the market cap of OMEX is about $124 mil.
    The list should be finalized on June 27. My impression is that if OMEX gets above about $1.56 by then, it may not be de-listed. The Russell Index Funds should have sold their OMEX by then, therefore this pressure should end after June 27. The short sellers will try to keep the price below $1.56. The only way I can see this will not go to completion is with an announcement before June 27 of a very successful salvage recovery, which would boost the stock, resulting in a higher market cap.
    Regardless of the outcome of the above, this selling pressure should end soon.
    Jun 15 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    Ship
    The Hunley was recovered from Charleston harbor 8-10 years ago, having been located with financial support by author Clive Cussler. The Confederate submarine is in a tank being "de-salted". If you use AIS for ship location, you can see OE docked this morning at Charleston, shown right next to the label "Friends of the Hunley", where the sub is located. Seems like a good omen to me!
    Jun 15 04:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Meeting Reveals Larger-Than-Expected SS CA Recovery [View article]
    That's $8574/oz, with gold's price at $300-$400.
    Jun 15 03:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Secret Army Gold On The SS Central America, Short Sale Profits To Go To Charity [View article]
    I just pulled it out of the air, or rather, off the ocean floor.
    Jun 6 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Secret Army Gold On The SS Central America, Short Sale Profits To Go To Charity [View article]
    Not sure why being listed in the Russell 2000 is important. Are there investment groups which will invest in R2000 stocks, but not R3000 stocks?
    Like Uziel, who just bought 4.6 mil shares, there are other large speculators who see the potential for a short squeeze. There is no longer a lot of "loose" stock available to borrow. The large specs tell their brokers not to lend their stock to short sellers. We (I speak for myself) little guys cannot do that, as far as I know.
    A company with a market cap of $116 mil which has earnings of $50 mil this year - something about that does not compute.
    Jun 5 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seasonal Gold Moves: Is This The Catalyst That Gold Needs To Break Out Of Its Trading Range? [View article]
    Thanks for another informative article, Hebba! Note that the jewelry fabricators who start buying in August for Christmas / Tet / Chinese New Year, etc., sales are going to take delivery of physical.

    Everyone knows the price starts up in Aug, so now they buy in July to "front run". Buying in June would front run the front runners. The risk is that "da boyz" will try to "run the stop loss orders" in June. This may be taking place now, but it appears to be more of a struggle this year, so far. If that is now underway, it is the best buying opportunity we will get until Dec, from a seasonal standpoint.

    It's not too early to consider an exit point. October looks good. If the Republicans appear likely to take the Senate, folks may accept the illusion that government spending will be cut, thereby slowing gold's rise.
    May 28 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Shrinking Cash Position Fails To Cover Current Bills, CEO Greg Stemm Must Go [View article]
    Blue Ridge - You may be a bit overly-critical on OMEX. There is not much management can do for shareholders until the company makes a profit. Would the company have operated differently had they been able to keep the 17 tons of Black Swan silver coins? Who would have predicted that Hillary's State Dept would take the side of Spain in the court case, so she could repay a large contributor to the Democrats?

    This is the world's premier deep sea salvage company. They employ men of different character than those who sell soap, or those who make bear raids on small companies. Stockholders will prosper when salvages are successful. With the short position in the stock, a really successful salvage will create really succesful stockholders. Patience -
    May 16 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Shrinking Cash Position Fails To Cover Current Bills, CEO Greg Stemm Must Go [View article]
    Another aspect of the huge short position in OMEX stock is the dilution it causes. To short stock, the short seller must borrow stock from a broker, stock owned by someone else. The short seller sells the stock he borrowed to a buyer, so now two people own the same stock, and the effective number of shares outstanding has increased by the amount sold short.

    There are roughly 83 million shares of OMEX outstanding, 75 million constituting the "float", or shares readily available to trade, and 20 million sold short. These 20 million are held by buyers who think they own stock, but in reality those shares are already owned by someone else. The float is effectively 95 million shares. It is as if OMEX issued an additional 20 million shares, which diluted the stock of the company by 25%. That alone should cause the price to drop 25%. If the stock would otherwise be at $2.00, the extra shares created by selling short 20 million would mathematically put the price at $1.60 per share.

    The reverse is true, also. When the shorts buy to cover their sales, it is the same effect as if OMEX instituted a "buy back" program to retire 20 million shares. It would mathematically cause the price to rise from $1.60 to $2.00 per share. This is in addition to any price increase due to the increased Demand.

    You can see the powerful pressures on these short sellers, especially if OMEX has a better than expected salvage operation. Not only is there the possibility of large earnings, the short sellers would be sorely pressed.

    Nothing is certain, but the risk-reward ratio for OMEX looks pretty good to me!
    May 15 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: Shrinking Cash Position Fails To Cover Current Bills, CEO Greg Stemm Must Go [View article]
    Shipbuilder1 - Moeda was a new term for me, had to look up the definition, which says it's a gov't token rather than a coin? I have no insight into what people used for money in 1740. If they were Portuguese tokens, would they be useful in England? Seems like the merchants would have converted their earnings into coin of the realm of England.
    May 14 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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