Thanks for the detailed article Richard. Is there any source of information on the Net Energy from these sources? My guess is Israel and Iran will go to war within the year. When that happens, the cost of fuel will likely jump significantly. If diesel costs double, what would the price per barrel have to go to?
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
If you are watching the TWIP reports, you can see that inventories started to build faster than inventories were depleting. My guess is Sandy will suppress demand and inventories will build further.
My guess is temporarily, gas prices will continue to decline. The margin of safety for gasoline and oil inventories is only about 2-4 days supply, or about 1%.
Why Solar REITs Are A Better Way To Invest In Solar [View article]
The solar industry is failing because solar companies and investors fail to understand who their "Crossing the Chasm" customers is.
JPods (http://bit.ly/H3jjf2) will be deploying a megawatt per mile of solar over our transportation networks. The Net Energy of solar is 20:1 as compared to Net Energy from new oil fields of 3:1. There is a 6x advantage of using solar to power transportation.
Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. JPods are ultra-light, computer networked, robotic railroads (PRT or PodCars) that cut the costs by 10x in cities. Cost are cut from 56 cents a mile for cars to 6 cents a mile.
PRT networks are the Crossing the Chasm customers for the solar industry. The PRT Network built in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles since being deployed as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. (http://tinyurl.com/97c...).
The Next 10 Years: Much More Misery [View article]
John this is great. Look up the Metric Disposable Energy, disposable incomes ability to buy energy. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life.
Disposable Energy should replace GDP. It measures the amount of economic work being applied to the Economic Flywheel. The more work being applied, the more momentum the flywheel has. The less affordable energy is, the less work being applied, economic momentum decays.
GDP increases at the moment government spending adds to funds to buy energy. As those debts must be serviced, the drag of economic momentum occurs in a later GDP snapshot.
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
Ryan
You are correct about "More money that goes into the gasoline tank implies less money for all other purchases ... including mortgages."
Life requires energy. Net Energy is equivalent to "take home pay."
As you note, there is lots of oil. The Net Energy of that oil sucks, sorry it is a technical term for "really bad experience."
Americans are accustomed to a free market where we pay vendors a profit to provide us resources so we can focus our talents to receive a profit by servicing our customers. Profit for care, implies a responsibility to care.
Customers deserve to be warned in 1998 that the $1.03 they were paying for gasoline would not be available in the future.
Customers deserved to be warned that gasoline might not be available even at $4.00 a gallon. There is lots of oil, the Net Energy of unconventional oil sucks (a technical term).
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
Hi Ryan Storage and refining on both coasts is extraordinarily limited. The fragility in both markets is incredible.
Thanks for the storage link.
I am pretty sure PRT networks will rival the railroads of 1860-1910 and the Internet/cell nets of 1984-2010 in changing infrastructure. There are 140,000 miles of freight rail that averages 480 ton-miles per gallon. PRT networks can approach and some exceed that efficiency. About 500,000 miles of PRT are needed, or about $5 trillion. The 90% cost reduction per vehicle-mile pays for the infrastructure.
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
Hi Ross I believe you are correct. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life. But energy is the last thing people stop paying for. So as gas prices increase, eventually something else in the economy breaks.
As gas prices increased from $1.03 in 1998 to $3.30 in 2008, families lost about $2,000 of disposable income. As more and more families chose between paying for their commutes (keep their jobs) and paying their mortgages, foreclosures collapsed the banking systems.
My guess is gas prices will climb until something breaks. But the value of energy assets will break less than other aspects of the economy. Life requires energy.
UGA ETF: Approaching Gasoline Panic [View article]
Hi Robin. My focus is on fragility in the system and when there will be a snap. From my perspective the oil and gasoline are significantly under priced relative to their value. Near term backwardization and contango affect trading, but not fundamental value and what will happen in the snap. My investments are all in JPods, re-tooling transportation with ultra-light robotic railroads.
Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
It was a blessing to me to be an infantryman :-) As you found it seems also. If I had my way, we would have universal service for 5 months, then in the Reserves for 6 years. I love the military and recognize that standing armies are necessary and held in check by ethics. Lots of us going through them builds that ethic.
I think we are going to regret making oil the lifeblood of our economy. Here is a summary of why I think it is unconstitutional: http://bit.ly/PvzBrw
Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
There is a momentum building towards a snap. Oil infrastructure is so fragile that peace is essential to its delivery. I have serious doubts about the stability of deliveries once a snap occurs.
Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
Hi Padoc1. Ref: " I do agree with you that we need a strategic, long-term, comprehensive energy policy."
As much as that sounds good, it assumes the planners are smarter than free markets. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 institutionalized oil as the lifeblood of our economy; indicating they cannot find their butt with both hands. In 1956 Hubbert published that US domestic oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did. Since then "the plan" has been to import oil and pay for it with debt.
When liberty to choose networks was restored to the people in communications in 1984, long dormant technologies of the Internet and cell nets commercialized. When people have liberty to choose transport networks, JPods and other will offer networks that use 1/10th the energy without congestion. Here is a link to the Constitutional foundation for why liberty is better than central planning.
No Shortage Of Shale Oil Plays [View article]
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
My guess is temporarily, gas prices will continue to decline. The margin of safety for gasoline and oil inventories is only about 2-4 days supply, or about 1%.
Why Solar REITs Are A Better Way To Invest In Solar [View article]
JPods (http://bit.ly/H3jjf2) will be deploying a megawatt per mile of solar over our transportation networks. The Net Energy of solar is 20:1 as compared to Net Energy from new oil fields of 3:1. There is a 6x advantage of using solar to power transportation.
Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. JPods are ultra-light, computer networked, robotic railroads (PRT or PodCars) that cut the costs by 10x in cities. Cost are cut from 56 cents a mile for cars to 6 cents a mile.
PRT networks are the Crossing the Chasm customers for the solar industry. The PRT Network built in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles since being deployed as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. (http://tinyurl.com/97c...).
Why Solar REITs Are A Better Way To Invest In Solar [View article]
The Next 10 Years: Much More Misery [View article]
The Next 10 Years: Much More Misery [View article]
Disposable Energy should replace GDP. It measures the amount of economic work being applied to the Economic Flywheel. The more work being applied, the more momentum the flywheel has. The less affordable energy is, the less work being applied, economic momentum decays.
GDP increases at the moment government spending adds to funds to buy energy. As those debts must be serviced, the drag of economic momentum occurs in a later GDP snapshot.
This is a great piece. Thanks
GDP
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
You are correct about "More money that goes into the gasoline tank implies less money for all other purchases ... including mortgages."
Life requires energy. Net Energy is equivalent to "take home pay."
As you note, there is lots of oil. The Net Energy of that oil sucks, sorry it is a technical term for "really bad experience."
Americans are accustomed to a free market where we pay vendors a profit to provide us resources so we can focus our talents to receive a profit by servicing our customers. Profit for care, implies a responsibility to care.
Customers deserve to be warned in 1998 that the $1.03 they were paying for gasoline would not be available in the future.
Customers deserved to be warned that gasoline might not be available even at $4.00 a gallon. There is lots of oil, the Net Energy of unconventional oil sucks (a technical term).
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
Storage and refining on both coasts is extraordinarily limited. The fragility in both markets is incredible.
Thanks for the storage link.
I am pretty sure PRT networks will rival the railroads of 1860-1910 and the Internet/cell nets of 1984-2010 in changing infrastructure. There are 140,000 miles of freight rail that averages 480 ton-miles per gallon. PRT networks can approach and some exceed that efficiency. About 500,000 miles of PRT are needed, or about $5 trillion. The 90% cost reduction per vehicle-mile pays for the infrastructure.
Gasoline Supply Shocks In California, East Coast Likely [View article]
I believe you are correct. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life. But energy is the last thing people stop paying for. So as gas prices increase, eventually something else in the economy breaks.
As gas prices increased from $1.03 in 1998 to $3.30 in 2008, families lost about $2,000 of disposable income. As more and more families chose between paying for their commutes (keep their jobs) and paying their mortgages, foreclosures collapsed the banking systems.
My guess is gas prices will climb until something breaks. But the value of energy assets will break less than other aspects of the economy. Life requires energy.
Bakken Update: The Red Queen Is Just A Fairy Tale Part II [View article]
Crude Oil Inventories Rise; Gasoline Inventories Drop [View article]
UGA ETF: Approaching Gasoline Panic [View article]
Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
I think we are going to regret making oil the lifeblood of our economy. Here is a summary of why I think it is unconstitutional:
http://bit.ly/PvzBrw
Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
As much as that sounds good, it assumes the planners are smarter than free markets. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 institutionalized oil as the lifeblood of our economy; indicating they cannot find their butt with both hands. In 1956 Hubbert published that US domestic oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did. Since then "the plan" has been to import oil and pay for it with debt.
When liberty to choose networks was restored to the people in communications in 1984, long dormant technologies of the Internet and cell nets commercialized. When people have liberty to choose transport networks, JPods and other will offer networks that use 1/10th the energy without congestion. Here is a link to the Constitutional foundation for why liberty is better than central planning.
http://bit.ly/NCkzPZ