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Bill James

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  • French Elections Means Gas Lines On East Coast [View article]
    You are correct that the refinery issues on the East Coast are almost suicidal.
    May 17 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • French Elections Means Gas Lines On East Coast [View article]
    The data is a bit scattered. The best data source is EIA; pretty lousy judgment. http://bit.ly/HCdqu4

    Look at the gasoline inventories relative to the oil. Gasoline hovers around 60 million barrels, crude oil around 8 million barrels.

    Here is a pretty good reference article, but does not note the recent refinery closings in the Virgin Islands.
    http://bit.ly/L8ghhI

    Shipping news out on tankers provides the best source I can find that outlines the incoming gasoline shipments. Example:
    http://buswk.co/L8ghhL

    Refinery news is also good to watch:
    http://bit.ly/L8giSH
    http://cnnmon.ie/L8giSJ
    May 15 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • French Elections Means Gas Lines On East Coast [View article]
    The US Gulf gasoline production is already contracted for. There are not thousands of truck sitting idle. We are not very nimble.
    May 15 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • French Elections Means Gas Lines On East Coast [View article]
    The real problem with oil prices is socialism. Mobilizing to fight World War I the Federal government monopolized/socialized communications, power and transportation infrastructure. The unintended consequences are a century of rotary telephone, ever more dependence of central grids and oil was made the lifeblood of our economy.

    US Peak Oil was in 1970. Since then oil imports have increased to 60% of needs, creating oil's Potato Famine; monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control.

    Worse, the costs of imported oil, wars to protect access to foreign oil, DOE employees, DOT employees and other cost are socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into the price of gasoline.

    Free markets cannot adapt to changing circumstances when socialism confuses the true cost.

    In 1984 the courts recognized Federal control over the means of production in communications was declared unconstitutional. Restored to free markets, millions of jobs and better service at lower costs. That success can be repeat once power and transport are restored to free markets.
    May 14 10:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Oil addiction is subject to wars to defend access. I would rather repair windmills from weather damage than fight endless wars to protect foreign oil. Life requires energy. Oil is finite. Life based on oil is terminal. Federal socializing costs distorts markets.

    The left wants government to subsidize solar. The right wants it to subsidize wars to protect oil. What is needed is a return to Constitutional principles and free markets. http://bit.ly/Ht28pC
    Apr 8 01:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Apple is a major innovator in communications because they act on the interests of their customers, not wait for subsidies. Subsidies distorts markets. The Transcontinental Railroads were build with private capital and only back by government bonds for rails put into operation. The Federal government is restricted by the Constitution to only promote welfare. Federal providing welfare created Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt, civilization killers created by subsidized infrastructure. http://bit.ly/Ht28pC
    Apr 8 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Hi John. I have even taken a Chinese delegation to Morgantown. I think of it is as the "Lisa" of personal computers. It is a great step in the right direction but not a Macintosh. I have worked on JPods version of PRT for 13 years. JPods and ET3 are likely to become very significant once we can break the government monopoly over access to rights of way.
    Apr 8 12:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Hi NakedJayBird. Mobilizing to fight WWI the Federal government monopolized/socialized communications, power and transportation infrastructures. A century of rotary telephones, loss of tens of thousands of miles of railroads, loss of 400,000 windmills and oil was made the lifeblood of the US economy. After communications was returned to a free market in 1984 millions of jobs, vast innovation and better service at lower costs resulted. Government still controls the means of production in power and transport infrastructure. Like the century of rotary telephone under government control, we still have the gas mileage of a Model-T. All Federal monopolies are unconstitutional (http://bit.ly/Ht28pC). As soon as free markets are returned to power and transportation you will see an economic boom. Our current economic pain is the slow unfolding of oil's Potato Famine consequences, consequences from a monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control.
    Apr 8 12:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    What is needed is a return to free markets. The Federal government socializes into national debt the cost to protect access to foreign oil. If this were properly capitalized into the price of a gallon of gas, solar would be extremely competitive.
    Apr 8 12:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    I am opposed to government subsidies of all types. The solar industry would do just fine if all costs of using oil and coal were capitalized into the price. Consider that we socialize over $1.4 trillion of costs to defend foreign oil into the national debt instead of capitalizing it into the price of gasoline.
    Apr 7 08:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    The Federal government socializes the cost of wars to defend foreign oil into the national debt. That is a huge subsidy.

    If oil had to capitalize all costs (DOE & DOT employees, wars to protect foreign oil, etc...) then gasoline would cost about $13 a gallon. Solar and all re-newables would look cheap.

    There are solar waters heaters on nearly every roof in China. Not because they are tree huggers, but because in a non-subsidized world, solar thermal is the most affordable way to get hot water.

    The subsidies to coal and oil in the US are hidden by a century of Federal subsidies.
    Apr 6 09:54 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
    Solar collector manufacturers will boom later this year when JPods and ET3 networks begin to consume 4 meters of solar collectors for each meter of rail we build. We will build about 1 million miles of rails in the US in the next 10 years.

    The problem with solar manufacturing is their markets are government managed. The government monopoly over transportation caused the loss of tens of thousands of miles of railroads (400+ ton-miles per gallon efficiency) and block Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) since Morgantown's PRT network was built as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. Once this monopoly is broken, there will be an economic boom similar to the Internet and cell phone networks as highways are displaced by 10x efficiency gains.
    Apr 6 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Strong Upside Potential This Year [View article]
    Oil dependence will change this year. Expect the chronic gasoline outages to start this summer in the Philadelphia area (assuming Iran is not bombed).

    Life requires energy. Less affordable energy, less life. Oil is finite. US Peak Oil was in 1970. World Peak Oil was likely in 2005 at 74 mb/d. Never again will economies grow based on oil supply growth.

    As the oil-powered economy continues to its geologically slow collapse the shift to solar power will become desperate. The Joint Forces Command puts a pretty realistic timeline:
    "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day." Link to references: http://tinyurl.com/6tf...
    Mar 30 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Strong Upside Potential This Year [View article]
    FSLR and all solar manufacturers stock values will jump in value this year because the first JPods networks will be built in the US and China. Likely in the US is the Meadowlands, Hull (MA) and West Point. http://bit.ly/H3jjf2

    These urban transportation networks are ultra-light personal railroads that approach the efficiency of long-haul freight rail (400+ ton-miles per gallon). Solar collectors 4 meters wide over the rails gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day. There will be shortage of manufacturing capacity within 8 months of the first rails being built. http://tinyurl.com/4w482g

    Two tailwinds will force a million miles of JPods and ET3 networks to be built in the next 10 years. 1. Cost per vehicle-mile are cut by 90% in repetitive urban transportation. 2. Oil outages will progress as warned by Joint Forces Commands JOE-2010.

    Send me a note if you are interested in more information.
    Mar 29 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day: Growth And Debt [View article]
    I really like the data. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life.

    Oil is the lifeblood of the US economy. For the US economy, Peak Oil was 1970, Peak Debt was 2008 and we are approaching Peak Money Printing. As communication innovation resulted after the 1984 return to free market, power and transportation can innovate once Federal central planning is replaced by free markets. Here is a summary: http://tinyurl.com/6o6...

    Freight railroad average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. The PRT network at Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles. It is practical, profitable and necessary to change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity.
    Mar 18 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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190 Comments
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