Emerging Economies Will Continue to Lead the Way [View article]
China's economy will lead for 2 major reasons the US economy will continue to decline:
1. Basic energy assumptions. 1.a. The US economy developed its momentum based on past realities, oil at less than $40 a barrel, with supply growth of 2.5% per year, with 20:1 net energy (energy out / energy required to get energy). 1.b. China's economy developed its momentum based on current realities, oil between $40-120 a barrel, with supply growth stopping in 2005 at 74 mbd and net energy of 10:1.
2. Socialization of power and transport infrastructure: 2.a. Mobilizing to fight World War I, the US socialized communication, transportation and power generation infrastructure, locking in the great innovations of Ford, Bell, Edison and the Wright Brothers. Subsidies for highways resulted in thousands of mile of railroad being lost despite the fact they they can move cargo at 400 ton-miles per gallon. Subsidies for mass transit, ethanol, electric cars, and other social versus market innovations stifles market response and innovation. Congress and bureaucracies are the filter through which innovation must pass, and they are perfect filters. 2.b. China is decentralized in decision processes. Next week JPods-China, Inc. will convert MOU's to construction contract to build Personal Rapid Transit (_PRT) networks in Kunming, China. These networks operate at 260 passenger-miles per gallon.
Efforts of central banks cannot correct for the fact that the oil supply has stopped growing. Without energy or efficiency growth, there is no economic growth.
US consumers have reduced oil use from 20.5 to 18.5 mbd. That has help calm oil prices for a short while. China's imports recently jumped from 7 to 9 mbd.
Field depletion exceeds new field production. By Summer, oil will likely jump in price and trump the efforts of central banks by radically reducing disposable income. Between 2002 and 2006 gas price increases reduced family disposable incomes by about $2,000 per year. That was enough that many families had to choose between paying for their commute or mortgage.
Steel, copper and aluminum will also have very large demand growth as Personal Rapid Transit networks begin to be deployed in large numbers. These networks operate using about 85% less energy per passenger-mile than cars, trains or buses.
Top 10 Emerging Green Trends of 2009 [View article]
As railroads were the catalyst for changing energy systems in the 1860 (bio to fossil), transportation will be the catalyst for changing energy systems again (fossil to solar).
As CSX commercials note, we know how "to move a ton 423 miles on one gallon of fuel." By applying the same concept of moving non-stop from origin to destination, JPods networks move people and cargo at over 260 mpg. But without the gallon, by using 1/10th the energy of cars/buses/trains, solar collectors mounted over the rails gather enough energy to power the networks.
Looking at Unemployment Another Way Still Says 13% by Mid-2010 [View article]
We passed Peak Oil in 2005, an end to economic growth based on increased oil energy growth. The US is consuming less, down to about 19 million barrels per day, but World Crude Oil Exports will drop below the ability to support this by 2011/2012. This will force slower consumption and higher unemployment unless we transition to radically more efficient uses of energy.
Buffett's purchase of BNI is an investment in efficiency. Railroads average 436 ton-miles per gallon. More freight will switch from trucks to rail. The same will happen in urban transport with the shift to PodCars/PRT. seekingalpha.com/artic...
8 Energy Storage Stocks that Can Expect Explosive Growth [View article]
When JPods networks begin to displace oil-powered urban transport networks, the commercial market in most of these storage technologies will grow much more rapidly than even the $8.3 billion.
JPods networks are a paradigm shift in urban transportation from cars (moving a ton to moving a person) to computer controlled networks of ultra-light 'horizontal-elevators'. These networks automate repetitive commuter range transport using 7-15% of the energy required by cars. Solar-collectors mounted over the rails gather about 5,000 to 12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per typical day. The grid and radical expansion of alternate storage devices will be required level out the cyclical pattern of solar-collection.
Six Signs Economy Is Turning the Corner [View article]
We have passed Peak Oil: Less Energy = Shrinking Economy.
Option: Increase efficiency by de-monopolizing government management of transportation and power generation infrastructure design. It is too hard for small business innovation to implement ideas with Congress as a filter. We need to tinker.
The Internet boom resulted when communications infrastructure was de-monopolized in 1984.
GE Results Validate Theory: Severe Economic Contraction [View article]
This is the Peak Oil Depression. Economic Growth equals Energy Growth times Efficiency Growth. In May of 2005 World Crude Oil Production stopped growing and the economy began loosing economic momentum.
Also in 2005, Net World Oil Exports Peaked and have declined 6% since. Net Exports is production minus domestic consumption by exporting nations; it is the amount of energy available to power economies of importing nations.
With oil as the lifeblood of our economy, less oil means contraction. The contraction will continue until the Olduvai Theory comes true or we change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity. We can create an economic boom by de-monopolize centrally planned transportation and power generation infrastructure as we de-monopolized communications infrastructure in 1984. Transportation efficiencies can be increased 10-20 times. seekingalpha.com/artic...
Transport Reform: 'Never Waste a Crisis' Mentality Fades [View article]
We need a paradigm shift in transportation. Trains use about as much energy as cars, 900 to 1,033 watt-hours per passenger miles. High speed trains use more energy than airplanes.
We need to repeat the success of communications infrastructure: manage by Performance Standards. www.theoildrum.com/nod...
Personal Rapid Transit, the solution defined for the 1973 Oil Embargo and built at Morgantown WV has delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles. Modern versions can be powered by sunshine (Masdar, the zero carbon city being built in Abu Dhabi). seekingalpha.com/artic...
Accomplishing the same economic work, using 15% of the energy would create an economic boom.
'Green Shoots' Not a Phrase Used by Those Who Know [View article]
There can be an economic boom if we repeat the lesson learned from de-monopolize communications infrastructure in 1984, the Internet and cell networks.
Mobilizing to fight World War I, bureaucracies were established to manage communications, transportation and power generation infrastructure. They froze in time the great innovations of at their founding of Bell, Ford, Edison and the Wright Brothers. In 1984 innovation was allowed in communications infrastructure; power generation and transportation infrastructure remain protected by monopolies.
Why do we pay to move a ton to move a person in repetitive, congested urban transport? Highways that kill 43,000 people a year are not the ultimate pinnacle of our engineering skills. Long-haul freight rail moves cargo 97.2 times more efficiently than we move cargo and people in cities. Morgantown's Personal Rapid Transit network has delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles.
If we want a stronger economy we need to break the design monopolies over infrastructure.
Peak World Oil Exports was in 2005, the amount of oil-energy available to fuel the economies. Net World Oil Exports has declined about 6% since 2005 = the economies have contracted about 6%.
There will be great oil and natural gas investments, but the long-term investments will be in achieving the current economic work using much less power. Example, investing in Personal Rapid Transit (PRT); a paradigm shift in transportation from the highways/automobile to networks of computer controlled 'horizontal-elevators' . seekingalpha.com/artic...
Using 127 watt-hours per passenger-mile instead of 1,000 (900, trains; 1033, cars; 1246, buses) results in 85% of current transportation costs to be converted to jobs and profits. This massive opportunity exists only because communications, transportation and power generation infrastructures have operated under well-meaning to rigid government monopolies since AT&T was monopolized in the mobilization to fight World War I. The great innovations at the founding of these monopolies locked in place the innovations of Bell, Ford, Edison and the Wright Brothers.
De-monopolization of AT&T in 1984 resulted in the Internet boom. Cap & Trade will force a de-monopolization of government road (network) allowing innovations such as PRT and Feed-in Tariffs to re-tool transportation and power generation infrastructure. The boom will exceed that of the Internet.
Cap & Trade is thought to be an energy tax, but it is really a performance standard. Free markets will twist this to good use to break the government's monopoly over transportation design since the mobilization to fight World War I.
Companies will defend profits by investing in efforts that can return the principle with interest and carbon credits. Use of petroleum is less than 5% efficient so there is lots of opportunity. The Personal Rapid Transit (PRT or PodCar) industry provides on-demand transport at 200+ passenger-miles per gallon. Like the railroads of the 1860's, funds will flow to support a massive re-tooling of transportation to exploit very high returns on capital with accompanying carbon credits.
The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks [View article]
Have you seen the CSX commercials where they talk about "moving a ton 423 miles on one gallon of fuel"? Why in repetitive urban transport are we moving a person at 18 mpg? We can do so much better if we shift the paradigm from the automobile to PRT (Personal Rapid Transit). JPods is an example.
We are going to start building JPods networks soon. These networks use the distributed nature of the transportation network to harvest distributed natural power sources.
By driving energy consumption down 85% to 150 watt-hours per passenger mile (cars - 1033, buses - 1246, trains - 900, planes -950) it solar-power practical. Collectors 2 meters wide mounted over the rails gather 5,000-12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day (below 45 degrees).
It is necessary to displace 70% of urban oil-powered transportation in the next 12 years. Failing that, the food distribution system with follow the Malthusian collapse of the banking system. The 12 years is very difficult and forced by Peak Oil realities. Avoiding collapse assumes world peace, no major hurricane hitting Houston, no major earthquakes, stable oil prices, no terrorist attacks of note, etc....
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
We are starting in China because of policy delays in the US. www.jpods.com/HomePBKu...
We will be building by April.
Emerging Economies Will Continue to Lead the Way [View article]
1. Basic energy assumptions.
1.a. The US economy developed its momentum based on past realities, oil at less than $40 a barrel, with supply growth of 2.5% per year, with 20:1 net energy (energy out / energy required to get energy).
1.b. China's economy developed its momentum based on current realities, oil between $40-120 a barrel, with supply growth stopping in 2005 at 74 mbd and net energy of 10:1.
2. Socialization of power and transport infrastructure:
2.a. Mobilizing to fight World War I, the US socialized communication, transportation and power generation infrastructure, locking in the great innovations of Ford, Bell, Edison and the Wright Brothers. Subsidies for highways resulted in thousands of mile of railroad being lost despite the fact they they can move cargo at 400 ton-miles per gallon. Subsidies for mass transit, ethanol, electric cars, and other social versus market innovations stifles market response and innovation. Congress and bureaucracies are the filter through which innovation must pass, and they are perfect filters.
2.b. China is decentralized in decision processes. Next week JPods-China, Inc. will convert MOU's to construction contract to build Personal Rapid Transit (_PRT) networks in Kunming, China. These networks operate at 260 passenger-miles per gallon.
Here is a Seeking Alpha article on _PRT:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
What Lies Ahead in 2010? [View article]
US consumers have reduced oil use from 20.5 to 18.5 mbd. That has help calm oil prices for a short while. China's imports recently jumped from 7 to 9 mbd.
Field depletion exceeds new field production. By Summer, oil will likely jump in price and trump the efforts of central banks by radically reducing disposable income. Between 2002 and 2006 gas price increases reduced family disposable incomes by about $2,000 per year. That was enough that many families had to choose between paying for their commute or mortgage.
We can increase efficiency. But time is limited.
Commodity Forecast for 2010, 2011 [View article]
Sweden: 74.125.93.132/search?q...
Commodity Forecast for 2010, 2011 [View article]
England: www.ultraprt.com/cms/
Korea:
Sweden:
US: www.jpods.com/HomePBHu...
China: www.jpods.com/HomePBKu...
Top 10 Emerging Green Trends of 2009 [View article]
As CSX commercials note, we know how "to move a ton 423 miles on one gallon of fuel." By applying the same concept of moving non-stop from origin to destination, JPods networks move people and cargo at over 260 mpg. But without the gallon, by using 1/10th the energy of cars/buses/trains, solar collectors mounted over the rails gather enough energy to power the networks.
Looking at Unemployment Another Way Still Says 13% by Mid-2010 [View article]
Buffett's purchase of BNI is an investment in efficiency. Railroads average 436 ton-miles per gallon. More freight will switch from trucks to rail. The same will happen in urban transport with the shift to PodCars/PRT. seekingalpha.com/artic...
8 Energy Storage Stocks that Can Expect Explosive Growth [View article]
JPods networks are a paradigm shift in urban transportation from cars (moving a ton to moving a person) to computer controlled networks of ultra-light 'horizontal-elevators'. These networks automate repetitive commuter range transport using 7-15% of the energy required by cars. Solar-collectors mounted over the rails gather about 5,000 to 12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per typical day. The grid and radical expansion of alternate storage devices will be required level out the cyclical pattern of solar-collection.
Here is an article on the paradigm shift: seekingalpha.com/artic...
Six Signs Economy Is Turning the Corner [View article]
Option: Increase efficiency by de-monopolizing government management of transportation and power generation infrastructure design. It is too hard for small business innovation to implement ideas with Congress as a filter. We need to tinker.
The Internet boom resulted when communications infrastructure was de-monopolized in 1984.
GE Results Validate Theory: Severe Economic Contraction [View article]
Also in 2005, Net World Oil Exports Peaked and have declined 6% since. Net Exports is production minus domestic consumption by exporting nations; it is the amount of energy available to power economies of importing nations.
With oil as the lifeblood of our economy, less oil means contraction. The contraction will continue until the Olduvai Theory comes true or we change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity. We can create an economic boom by de-monopolize centrally planned transportation and power generation infrastructure as we de-monopolized communications infrastructure in 1984. Transportation efficiencies can be increased 10-20 times. seekingalpha.com/artic...
Transport Reform: 'Never Waste a Crisis' Mentality Fades [View article]
We need to repeat the success of communications infrastructure: manage by Performance Standards. www.theoildrum.com/nod...
Personal Rapid Transit, the solution defined for the 1973 Oil Embargo and built at Morgantown WV has delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles. Modern versions can be powered by sunshine (Masdar, the zero carbon city being built in Abu Dhabi). seekingalpha.com/artic...
Accomplishing the same economic work, using 15% of the energy would create an economic boom.
'Green Shoots' Not a Phrase Used by Those Who Know [View article]
Mobilizing to fight World War I, bureaucracies were established to manage communications, transportation and power generation infrastructure. They froze in time the great innovations of at their founding of Bell, Ford, Edison and the Wright Brothers. In 1984 innovation was allowed in communications infrastructure; power generation and transportation infrastructure remain protected by monopolies.
Why do we pay to move a ton to move a person in repetitive, congested urban transport? Highways that kill 43,000 people a year are not the ultimate pinnacle of our engineering skills. Long-haul freight rail moves cargo 97.2 times more efficiently than we move cargo and people in cities. Morgantown's Personal Rapid Transit network has delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles.
If we want a stronger economy we need to break the design monopolies over infrastructure.
How to Invest in Peak Oil [View article]
There will be great oil and natural gas investments, but the long-term investments will be in achieving the current economic work using much less power. Example, investing in Personal Rapid Transit (PRT); a paradigm shift in transportation from the highways/automobile to networks of computer controlled 'horizontal-elevators' . seekingalpha.com/artic...
Using 127 watt-hours per passenger-mile instead of 1,000 (900, trains; 1033, cars; 1246, buses) results in 85% of current transportation costs to be converted to jobs and profits. This massive opportunity exists only because communications, transportation and power generation infrastructures have operated under well-meaning to rigid government monopolies since AT&T was monopolized in the mobilization to fight World War I. The great innovations at the founding of these monopolies locked in place the innovations of Bell, Ford, Edison and the Wright Brothers.
De-monopolization of AT&T in 1984 resulted in the Internet boom. Cap & Trade will force a de-monopolization of government road (network) allowing innovations such as PRT and Feed-in Tariffs to re-tool transportation and power generation infrastructure. The boom will exceed that of the Internet.
How to Raise a Good Energy Tax [View article]
Tax energy and you will get less economy.
Cap & Trade is thought to be an energy tax, but it is really a performance standard. Free markets will twist this to good use to break the government's monopoly over transportation design since the mobilization to fight World War I.
Companies will defend profits by investing in efforts that can return the principle with interest and carbon credits. Use of petroleum is less than 5% efficient so there is lots of opportunity. The Personal Rapid Transit (PRT or PodCar) industry provides on-demand transport at 200+ passenger-miles per gallon. Like the railroads of the 1860's, funds will flow to support a massive re-tooling of transportation to exploit very high returns on capital with accompanying carbon credits.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks [View article]
We are going to start building JPods networks soon. These networks use the distributed nature of the transportation network to harvest distributed natural power sources.
By driving energy consumption down 85% to 150 watt-hours per passenger mile (cars - 1033, buses - 1246, trains - 900, planes -950) it solar-power practical. Collectors 2 meters wide mounted over the rails gather 5,000-12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day (below 45 degrees).
It is necessary to displace 70% of urban oil-powered transportation in the next 12 years. Failing that, the food distribution system with follow the Malthusian collapse of the banking system. The 12 years is very difficult and forced by Peak Oil realities. Avoiding collapse assumes world peace, no major hurricane hitting Houston, no major earthquakes, stable oil prices, no terrorist attacks of note, etc....