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Bill James  

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  • Bakken Update: The Red Queen Is Just A Fairy Tale Part II [View article]
    Until the "Run with the Red Queen" proves itself incorrect, we should not bet the survival of the US economy of sustainable oil for fracking.
    Oct 8, 2012. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Inventories Rise; Gasoline Inventories Drop [View article]
    We seem likely to see a gasoline panic if inventories drop much lower. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 12, 2012. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGA ETF: Approaching Gasoline Panic [View article]
    Hi Robin. My focus is on fragility in the system and when there will be a snap. From my perspective the oil and gasoline are significantly under priced relative to their value. Near term backwardization and contango affect trading, but not fundamental value and what will happen in the snap. My investments are all in JPods, re-tooling transportation with ultra-light robotic railroads.
    Aug 27, 2012. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    It was a blessing to me to be an infantryman :-) As you found it seems also. If I had my way, we would have universal service for 5 months, then in the Reserves for 6 years. I love the military and recognize that standing armies are necessary and held in check by ethics. Lots of us going through them builds that ethic.

    I think we are going to regret making oil the lifeblood of our economy. Here is a summary of why I think it is unconstitutional:
    http://bit.ly/PvzBrw
    Aug 23, 2012. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    There is a momentum building towards a snap. Oil infrastructure is so fragile that peace is essential to its delivery. I have serious doubts about the stability of deliveries once a snap occurs.
    Aug 22, 2012. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
    Hi Padoc1. Ref: " I do agree with you that we need a strategic, long-term, comprehensive energy policy."

    As much as that sounds good, it assumes the planners are smarter than free markets. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 institutionalized oil as the lifeblood of our economy; indicating they cannot find their butt with both hands. In 1956 Hubbert published that US domestic oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did. Since then "the plan" has been to import oil and pay for it with debt.

    When liberty to choose networks was restored to the people in communications in 1984, long dormant technologies of the Internet and cell nets commercialized. When people have liberty to choose transport networks, JPods and other will offer networks that use 1/10th the energy without congestion. Here is a link to the Constitutional foundation for why liberty is better than central planning.

    http://bit.ly/NCkzPZ
    Aug 21, 2012. 12:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
    I think we will start building JPods solar-powered transportation networks this fall. Freight rail averages 480 ton-miles per gallon. JPods ultra-light urban railroads are 10x better than cars, but only 1/10 of what we know is practical.

    Converting that $300 billion a month of costs into $270 billion per month of potential profit will drive adoption.
    Aug 20, 2012. 11:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    Hi Will Deliver. The Israeli's are warning us in absolutely clear terms to get ready.

    I completely agree with the garden. Famine from oil supply shock is a choice.

    In terms of small devices, my list is Goal Zero charger for AA/AAA batteries and cell phones, SteriPen (UV water sterilizer) and 300 pounds of beans and rice.
    Aug 20, 2012. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    Hi Gumby. My guess is 500,000 miles of PRT networks will be built to automate repetitive urban transport of people and cargo. This will reduce congestion on the highways to the point they will be drive-able. One note of caution, subsidized gasoline will end. Most of the cost of a gallon of gasoline is socialized into national debt. The true cost of a gallon of gasoline is north of $13 a gallon. I will also buy gasoline. I do not want to give up hot cars and motorcycles, just wars over oil and urban congestion.
    Aug 20, 2012. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
    I think JPods in Fayetteville, GA or SkyTran in Mountain View, CA are about to break the Federal barrier to transportation innovation. When that happens, natural gas will jump in value. Foreign Oil will become inaccessible as debt collapses the ability to buy imported oil.

    Mountain View story:
    http://bit.ly/MGOeGm

    Gizmag on JPods:
    http://bit.ly/TPlECV
    Aug 20, 2012. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
    War within a year between Iran and Israel seems certain.

    Seeking Alpha summary: http://seekingalpha.co...

    "Drums of August" Foreign Policy article: http://bit.ly/PJjohn
    Aug 19, 2012. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is So High When The World Economy Is So Low [View article]
    Life requires energy. Oils is currently the economic lifeblood of nations. It is more than a reserve currency; it is more like air and water.
    Aug 19, 2012. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    Thanks. I think a series of articles on investing in food would be very helpful. Pre-1960 Americans typically had 4-8 months of food in personal storage in September. Now they have a weeks maybe.

    This will change. My guess is this winter will be complex.
    Aug 19, 2012. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Investing: The Drums Of August, Israel Is Not Bluffing [View article]
    You are completely correct, the mistakes in our current situation matches those of WWI. Example, US military interests in occupying the Middle East are based on our need for imported oil.

    US Peak Oil was in 1970. Since 1970 we have had proof of the need to restore powering the US within a solar budget. Life and the US were founded and existed for most of history powered within a solar budget. Counting "no-fly mission," US military forces have been daily engaged in the Middle East since 1990. Yet we have done nothing to reduce US need for oil.

    Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. We know radically greater efficiency is practical. The Personal Rapid Transit network built in Morgantown, WV as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles.

    There are alternatives to the Federal mandated highway network. Yet we have petro-dollars to continue to fund the Iranian nuclear program. We are foolish.
    Aug 19, 2012. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Gasoline Futures To Profit From Storms Ernesto And Florence [View article]
    HI Paul. Your point is exactly on target. As you read the TWIP report from EIA, they report 22 days of gasoline supply available at 220 million barrels of inventory. At about 190 million barrels in 2008, drivers started seeing gasoline stations having mild outages. Driver behaviors shifted from mostly empty to mostly full tanks. Filling their tanks, more and more spot shortages and contagion spread pulling about 15 million barrels out of "reported inventory" into "gas tank inventory" (not reported). My wild guess is the system inventory had dropped only 2-5 million barrels from the pipeline issue you mention.

    The investing point is that if inventories diminish to about 190 million barres (2 days supply) as multiple storms tracking through the Gulf, even without damage, a panic can pull 15 million barrels out of inventory in a region and 30 to 60 million barrels nationally.

    The shape of the blue nipple indicates it takes 4 to 8 weeks to recover from a modest shortage once drivers panic. The EIA reporting 22 days of supply when there is really only one above panic levels, creates an investing advantage.
    Aug 6, 2012. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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