First Solar: Strong Upside Potential This Year [View article]
FSLR and all solar manufacturers stock values will jump in value this year because the first JPods networks will be built in the US and China. Likely in the US is the Meadowlands, Hull (MA) and West Point. http://bit.ly/H3jjf2
These urban transportation networks are ultra-light personal railroads that approach the efficiency of long-haul freight rail (400+ ton-miles per gallon). Solar collectors 4 meters wide over the rails gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day. There will be shortage of manufacturing capacity within 8 months of the first rails being built. http://tinyurl.com/4w482g
Two tailwinds will force a million miles of JPods and ET3 networks to be built in the next 10 years. 1. Cost per vehicle-mile are cut by 90% in repetitive urban transportation. 2. Oil outages will progress as warned by Joint Forces Commands JOE-2010.
Send me a note if you are interested in more information.
I really like the data. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life.
Oil is the lifeblood of the US economy. For the US economy, Peak Oil was 1970, Peak Debt was 2008 and we are approaching Peak Money Printing. As communication innovation resulted after the 1984 return to free market, power and transportation can innovate once Federal central planning is replaced by free markets. Here is a summary: http://tinyurl.com/6o6...
Freight railroad average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. The PRT network at Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles. It is practical, profitable and necessary to change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
I agree with most of your points. China's currency will become a dominant world currency because of a crash of US and EU economies that need stable supplies of cheap oil. Cheap oil is gone.
When these oil supply shocks hit, our manufacturing base will be dramatically disrupted.
The US could adapt, but we are not. Even when these oil supply shock hit, the US will have more per capita energy than China, but the change, if unplanned for will be very disruptive.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
I think China will weather the coming oil supply shocks better than the US and Europe. They have 100+ million electric motor scooters and generally shorter distances to travel. They have the manufacturing base and long term resource contracts to double that number of scooters. The return on energy consumed by these pretty simple devices is pretty spectacular.
The US economy is generally more nibble than any in the world. It could adapt and save the dollar. But as communications was mired in century of rotary telephones before 1984, power and transportation infrastructures are still stuck.
My guess is that every economy will struggle with $100+ oil and supply shock. China will suffer significantly, but much less than the US and EU. The US and EU could fall back to third world status as debt preempt energy purchases.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
If oil supply shock do not hit for 5 years, you are probably right. If Iran and Israel have a confrontation, those supply shocks could hit next week.
My best guess is that the Joint Forces Command has the timing about right. Gasoline outages will start as spare capacity drops to zero in 2012. Chronic outages completely unavoidable by 2015.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
I was not as clear as I should be. Life requires energy. Nations must buy energy regardless of cost. As oil supply shocks hit, those holding US currency will be forced to buy oil as it skyrockets in price, as more and more dollars move from reserve status into the market, the value of dollars will fall. A cycle seems likely that will force ever more dollars out of reserve status into the market. The value of the dollar will cycle ever lower.
The contracts China has fixed in dollars could be honored in dollars that are collapsing in value with each revolution of the cycle noted above. Or, if I were China, I would offer to convert those contracts to be based on the Yuan backed by China's ability to deliver manufactured goods.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
The dollar and the Marshall Plan was given a pretty open field to grow in, but I believe it was our ability to exchange manufactured goods for raw materials that locked in long term economic value.
The US manufacturing base has wane while China's has waxed. China is doing everything pretty right to repeat the success the US had after World War II. While the Fed, Japan and European central banks are doing everything possible practical to debase their currency.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
Hi John. I completely agree and disagree with conclusion "no threat of global warming, there's no justification for the economics of alternative energy."
I completely agree that the current approach to global warming and alternative energy is big government academics and crony capitalist asking big government politicians for handouts to come up with big solutions that a free market cannot fund because there is no increase in value.
I completely disagree with you because socialism, government control of the means of production created the civilization killers of Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt. Mobilizing to fight World War I the Federal government monopolized/socialized communication, power and transport infrastructures as natural monopolies. At the founding of these Federal commercial monopolies, the great innovations of Ford, Edison, Bell and the Wright Brothers were institutionalized into the big answer (see note on agreement above). Thousands of miles of railroad were abandoned as subsidized highways, using subsidized oil removed efficiency as a market force. Hundreds of thousands of operating windmills (electric and mechanical) were displaced by subsidized electrical grid deployment. Farms were collectivized from a typical 160 acre family farm to 1,600+ acre, highly oil dependent corporations as subsidized oil removed the value of farms capable of producing food primarily through labor.
Federal commercial monopolies, striving for ever better know-how, greater consistency, resulted in a century of rotary telephones, ever more dependence of the central grid and oil's Potato Famine potential (monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control).
The current economic crisis is the geologically slow unfolding of oil' Potato Famine. The Federal Highway Aid Act of 1956 funded the Interstate Highway systems locking in growth of the US economy to oil supply growth. Also in 1956 Dr. Hubbert published finding that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970, which it did. US Federal Energy Policy became "increase imported oil and exchange it for national debt." The Europeans were equally socialists. We are now approaching Peak Debt and world crude oil production peaked at 74 million barrels per day in 2005.
There is still a lot of oil, but not the growth of cheap oil on which the economic growth is dependent. Socializing the cost of wars to defend oil supply lines, massive government employees pay and benefits being socialized instead of capitalized into the price of using oil and highways is exceeding the capacity of taxpayers and bond holders to carry. Both oil companies and academics are begging for more Federal debt to fund their "big" solutions.
Had we been good capitalist and Americans we would not be facing civilization killers created by Federal policy. In fact the US Constitution mandates the Federal government "provide" defense but strictly limits it to "promote" welfare. This interpretation is backed up by Madison in the Federalist Papers. The Anti-Federalist opposed ratification of the Constitution because it made the Federal head too strong, so the Preamble was reinforced by Amendment X of the Bill of Rights.
Federal funding of Interstates is "provides" welfare. Unconstitutional Federal commercial monopolies socialize vast costs, creates crony capitalism and undermines free markets to adapt to changing situations.
The return of communications to free markets in 1984, the radical innovation in infrastructure innovation in the 1800's underscores that infrastructure like all commerce should be operated within a free market. Federal commercial monopolies created the civilizations killer of Peak Oil's Potato Famine, Debt and Climate Change.
Graphics are included in the survey, but not in the results. Here is a link to a nearly identical survey: http://bit.ly/z71Ors
This was sent to 3,000 people, half were other West Point grads, a third were Iowa Republican Caucus leaders and the rest business people. In all, a pretty conservative group: 77% agree increasing oil imports and debt are highly correlated. 81% agree protecting foreign oil has required daily actions of US military since 1990. 62% agree that socializing to cost of pollution, creating an uncertain consequence to future generations is a moral not scientific question.
The science of Climate Change is uncertain. Our duty "security the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our Posterity" requires we be good capitalist, capitalizing all costs and restoring resources used to like condition for future generations. If we are self-reliant, we preempt the causes of civilization killers of dept, Peak Oil and Climate Change.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
JPods networks consume solar collectors 4 meters wide per running meter of rail. Over the next decade JPods, UltraPRT, VectusPRT, Mister, Taxi2000, SkyTran, etc... will build close to a million miles of the ultra-light railroads.
Once the barriers to right of way are broken (as with communications in 1984) JPods will consume the current world's output of solar collectors every 80 days per construction crew. We will have hundreds of crews.
Our barrier, like the Internet, is government central planned monopolies over power and transportation. The Internet was created in 1969, began to commercialize with de-monopolization in 1984 and hit a commercial tipping point in 1990.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
Hi John The real problem with with Solar PV is the attempt to use it for grid replacement. This is a failure of central planners, not PV.
When PV is used over JPods rails, the 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-mile of power collected per mile of rail per day make transportation durable against a single point of failure from blackouts and oil supply shock. The cutting of cost per vehicle-mile from 56 cents to 4 cents using JPods pays for the PV.
Using the distributed nature of the transportation network to collect solar while improving the efficiency of transportation toward the 400+ ton-mile per gallon efficiency of freight rail is how solar can be very cost effective.
Looks like we now have a funded project in China. ULTraPRT is operating at Heathrow. The PodCar industry is hitting a tipping point that we overwhelm the PV industry with demand.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Hi Economic Analyst I share your interest in how the economy works. My best guess is that the economy is an artifact of the fundamental principle that life requires energy. More energy or efficiency, more life. Less energy or efficiency, less life. A metric we have come up with to illustrate this is "Disposable Energy," disposable incomes ability to buy energy.
The Internet was not built everywhere at once, neither will JPods. JPods networks will start in niches where cars are inconvenient. Airport economic communities and similar areas where there are many shuttle vans have a 1 to 3 year payback. The ROI will drive expansion where profitable.
An Economy at Stall Speed: Is There a Recession in Our Future? [View article]
Life requires energy. Less affordable energy, less life.
Economic growth has been tied to oil supply growth for the last 70 years. Peak Oil was in 2005 at 74 mb/d. The economy will begin contracting at about the rate oil is deleting, 6.8% per year.
First Solar: Strong Upside Potential This Year [View article]
These urban transportation networks are ultra-light personal railroads that approach the efficiency of long-haul freight rail (400+ ton-miles per gallon). Solar collectors 4 meters wide over the rails gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day. There will be shortage of manufacturing capacity within 8 months of the first rails being built. http://tinyurl.com/4w482g
Two tailwinds will force a million miles of JPods and ET3 networks to be built in the next 10 years. 1. Cost per vehicle-mile are cut by 90% in repetitive urban transportation. 2. Oil outages will progress as warned by Joint Forces Commands JOE-2010.
Send me a note if you are interested in more information.
Chart Of The Day: Growth And Debt [View article]
Oil is the lifeblood of the US economy. For the US economy, Peak Oil was 1970, Peak Debt was 2008 and we are approaching Peak Money Printing. As communication innovation resulted after the 1984 return to free market, power and transportation can innovate once Federal central planning is replaced by free markets. Here is a summary: http://tinyurl.com/6o6...
Freight railroad average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. The PRT network at Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles. It is practical, profitable and necessary to change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
When these oil supply shocks hit, our manufacturing base will be dramatically disrupted.
The US could adapt, but we are not. Even when these oil supply shock hit, the US will have more per capita energy than China, but the change, if unplanned for will be very disruptive.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
The US economy is generally more nibble than any in the world. It could adapt and save the dollar. But as communications was mired in century of rotary telephones before 1984, power and transportation infrastructures are still stuck.
My guess is that every economy will struggle with $100+ oil and supply shock. China will suffer significantly, but much less than the US and EU. The US and EU could fall back to third world status as debt preempt energy purchases.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
My best guess is that the Joint Forces Command has the timing about right. Gasoline outages will start as spare capacity drops to zero in 2012. Chronic outages completely unavoidable by 2015.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
The contracts China has fixed in dollars could be honored in dollars that are collapsing in value with each revolution of the cycle noted above. Or, if I were China, I would offer to convert those contracts to be based on the Yuan backed by China's ability to deliver manufactured goods.
China A Major World Currency By 2015 [View article]
The US manufacturing base has wane while China's has waxed. China is doing everything pretty right to repeat the success the US had after World War II. While the Fed, Japan and European central banks are doing everything possible practical to debase their currency.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
I completely agree that the current approach to global warming and alternative energy is big government academics and crony capitalist asking big government politicians for handouts to come up with big solutions that a free market cannot fund because there is no increase in value.
I completely disagree with you because socialism, government control of the means of production created the civilization killers of Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt. Mobilizing to fight World War I the Federal government monopolized/socialized communication, power and transport infrastructures as natural monopolies. At the founding of these Federal commercial monopolies, the great innovations of Ford, Edison, Bell and the Wright Brothers were institutionalized into the big answer (see note on agreement above). Thousands of miles of railroad were abandoned as subsidized highways, using subsidized oil removed efficiency as a market force. Hundreds of thousands of operating windmills (electric and mechanical) were displaced by subsidized electrical grid deployment. Farms were collectivized from a typical 160 acre family farm to 1,600+ acre, highly oil dependent corporations as subsidized oil removed the value of farms capable of producing food primarily through labor.
Federal commercial monopolies, striving for ever better know-how, greater consistency, resulted in a century of rotary telephones, ever more dependence of the central grid and oil's Potato Famine potential (monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control).
The current economic crisis is the geologically slow unfolding of oil' Potato Famine. The Federal Highway Aid Act of 1956 funded the Interstate Highway systems locking in growth of the US economy to oil supply growth. Also in 1956 Dr. Hubbert published finding that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970, which it did. US Federal Energy Policy became "increase imported oil and exchange it for national debt." The Europeans were equally socialists. We are now approaching Peak Debt and world crude oil production peaked at 74 million barrels per day in 2005.
There is still a lot of oil, but not the growth of cheap oil on which the economic growth is dependent. Socializing the cost of wars to defend oil supply lines, massive government employees pay and benefits being socialized instead of capitalized into the price of using oil and highways is exceeding the capacity of taxpayers and bond holders to carry. Both oil companies and academics are begging for more Federal debt to fund their "big" solutions.
Had we been good capitalist and Americans we would not be facing civilization killers created by Federal policy. In fact the US Constitution mandates the Federal government "provide" defense but strictly limits it to "promote" welfare. This interpretation is backed up by Madison in the Federalist Papers. The Anti-Federalist opposed ratification of the Constitution because it made the Federal head too strong, so the Preamble was reinforced by Amendment X of the Bill of Rights.
Federal funding of Interstates is "provides" welfare. Unconstitutional Federal commercial monopolies socialize vast costs, creates crony capitalism and undermines free markets to adapt to changing situations.
The return of communications to free markets in 1984, the radical innovation in infrastructure innovation in the 1800's underscores that infrastructure like all commerce should be operated within a free market. Federal commercial monopolies created the civilizations killer of Peak Oil's Potato Famine, Debt and Climate Change.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
Graphics are included in the survey, but not in the results. Here is a link to a nearly identical survey: http://bit.ly/z71Ors
This was sent to 3,000 people, half were other West Point grads, a third were Iowa Republican Caucus leaders and the rest business people. In all, a pretty conservative group:
77% agree increasing oil imports and debt are highly correlated.
81% agree protecting foreign oil has required daily actions of US military since 1990.
62% agree that socializing to cost of pollution, creating an uncertain consequence to future generations is a moral not scientific question.
The science of Climate Change is uncertain. Our duty "security the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our Posterity" requires we be good capitalist, capitalizing all costs and restoring resources used to like condition for future generations. If we are self-reliant, we preempt the causes of civilization killers of dept, Peak Oil and Climate Change.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
Once the barriers to right of way are broken (as with communications in 1984) JPods will consume the current world's output of solar collectors every 80 days per construction crew. We will have hundreds of crews.
Our barrier, like the Internet, is government central planned monopolies over power and transportation. The Internet was created in 1969, began to commercialize with de-monopolization in 1984 and hit a commercial tipping point in 1990.
Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
The real problem with with Solar PV is the attempt to use it for grid replacement. This is a failure of central planners, not PV.
When PV is used over JPods rails, the 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-mile of power collected per mile of rail per day make transportation durable against a single point of failure from blackouts and oil supply shock. The cutting of cost per vehicle-mile from 56 cents to 4 cents using JPods pays for the PV.
Using the distributed nature of the transportation network to collect solar while improving the efficiency of transportation toward the 400+ ton-mile per gallon efficiency of freight rail is how solar can be very cost effective.
Looks like we now have a funded project in China. ULTraPRT is operating at Heathrow. The PodCar industry is hitting a tipping point that we overwhelm the PV industry with demand.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
I share your interest in how the economy works. My best guess is that the economy is an artifact of the fundamental principle that life requires energy. More energy or efficiency, more life. Less energy or efficiency, less life. A metric we have come up with to illustrate this is "Disposable Energy," disposable incomes ability to buy energy.
Here are two items that document "Disposable Energy." http://seekingalpha.co...
http://bit.ly/rEZypB
Job Recovery Prevented by Peak Oil [View instapost]
An Economy at Stall Speed: Is There a Recession in Our Future? [View article]
Economic growth has been tied to oil supply growth for the last 70 years. Peak Oil was in 2005 at 74 mb/d. The economy will begin contracting at about the rate oil is deleting, 6.8% per year.
seekingalpha.com/insta...