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Bill James

 
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  • Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
    Here is a "Life Requires Energy" surve: http://bit.ly/AyU01J

    Graphics are included in the survey, but not in the results. Here is a link to a nearly identical survey: http://bit.ly/z71Ors

    This was sent to 3,000 people, half were other West Point grads, a third were Iowa Republican Caucus leaders and the rest business people. In all, a pretty conservative group:
    77% agree increasing oil imports and debt are highly correlated.
    81% agree protecting foreign oil has required daily actions of US military since 1990.
    62% agree that socializing to cost of pollution, creating an uncertain consequence to future generations is a moral not scientific question.

    The science of Climate Change is uncertain. Our duty "security the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our Posterity" requires we be good capitalist, capitalizing all costs and restoring resources used to like condition for future generations. If we are self-reliant, we preempt the causes of civilization killers of dept, Peak Oil and Climate Change.
    Jan 30 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
    JPods networks consume solar collectors 4 meters wide per running meter of rail. Over the next decade JPods, UltraPRT, VectusPRT, Mister, Taxi2000, SkyTran, etc... will build close to a million miles of the ultra-light railroads.

    Once the barriers to right of way are broken (as with communications in 1984) JPods will consume the current world's output of solar collectors every 80 days per construction crew. We will have hundreds of crews.

    Our barrier, like the Internet, is government central planned monopolies over power and transportation. The Internet was created in 1969, began to commercialize with de-monopolization in 1984 and hit a commercial tipping point in 1990.
    Jan 30 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Clouds Threaten German Clean Energy Ambitions: Global Implications [View article]
    Hi John
    The real problem with with Solar PV is the attempt to use it for grid replacement. This is a failure of central planners, not PV.

    When PV is used over JPods rails, the 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-mile of power collected per mile of rail per day make transportation durable against a single point of failure from blackouts and oil supply shock. The cutting of cost per vehicle-mile from 56 cents to 4 cents using JPods pays for the PV.

    Using the distributed nature of the transportation network to collect solar while improving the efficiency of transportation toward the 400+ ton-mile per gallon efficiency of freight rail is how solar can be very cost effective.

    Looks like we now have a funded project in China. ULTraPRT is operating at Heathrow. The PodCar industry is hitting a tipping point that we overwhelm the PV industry with demand.
    Jan 29 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
    Hi Economic Analyst
    I share your interest in how the economy works. My best guess is that the economy is an artifact of the fundamental principle that life requires energy. More energy or efficiency, more life. Less energy or efficiency, less life. A metric we have come up with to illustrate this is "Disposable Energy," disposable incomes ability to buy energy.

    Here are two items that document "Disposable Energy." http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://bit.ly/rEZypB
    Nov 14 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Job Recovery Prevented by Peak Oil [View instapost]
    The Internet was not built everywhere at once, neither will JPods. JPods networks will start in niches where cars are inconvenient. Airport economic communities and similar areas where there are many shuttle vans have a 1 to 3 year payback. The ROI will drive expansion where profitable.
    Aug 1 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Economy at Stall Speed: Is There a Recession in Our Future? [View article]
    Life requires energy. Less affordable energy, less life.

    Economic growth has been tied to oil supply growth for the last 70 years. Peak Oil was in 2005 at 74 mb/d. The economy will begin contracting at about the rate oil is deleting, 6.8% per year.

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Jul 31 09:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
    It is practical to power urban transportation within a solar budget. Our problem is the highway network requires moving a ton to move a person in congested start-stop traffic. Get rid of the parasitic mass and the start-stop and energy consumption is cut 90%. Solar collectors mounted over a JPods rail gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles per mile of rail per day.

    Just as the fundamental technologies of cell nets and the Internet existed for 20 decades before 1984, the technologies exist to power transportation within a solar budget. They will only commercialize once government releases its monopoly control over network and power networks.
    Jun 4 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Railroad Stocks for the Long Haul [View article]
    As Peak Oil impacts, railroads and land around rail-heads will be incredible investments.
    May 31 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
    Hi DLB40

    Oil is depleting. Peak Oil was 74 mb/d in 2005. We should be drilling oil wells everywhere we can, but it takes 6-10 years to bring new fields into production. Current oil fields are depleting at about 6.8% per year.

    Net Energy from oil extraction on new fields is below 10:1 (energy available : energy required to get energy).

    For the past 60 years economic and oil supply growth are highly correlated. seekingalpha.com/artic...

    There is no way to drill our way out of this.

    Railroads average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. Personal Rapid Transit, PRT, applies similar concepts to moving people and goods in cities. We will have to re-tool transportation similar to how communications was re-tooled after 1984. Government monopoly control of the means of production, control over transportation networks will have to be returned to free markets.

    docs.google.com/docume...
    May 31 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
    Hi Fueled by Randomness

    Natural gas trucks will help in the short run.

    In the long run, giving our Posterity a world with more potential than we receive requires we become net producers instead of net consumers. We have the technology to power an industrial society within a solar budget.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    We will have to abandon the artifacts of the oil-powered economy. Investing in PRT is going to create another railroad boom.
    May 31 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strong Link Between GDP and Oil Consumption [View article]
    I am impressed with your understanding of oil and oil field geology.
    Apr 7 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strong Link Between GDP and Oil Consumption [View article]
    Here is a graph showing a 60 year correlation between growth of GDP, Oil Supply Growth and Disposable Income (disposable income's ability to buy oil). Since Peak Oil at 74 million barrels per day in 2005, the trend is severe. Disposable Energy began declining severely since 2002, when China and India began competing for energy.

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Apr 3 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
    My guess is chronic gasoline outages will start on the US East Coast in 2-18 months. Watch the weekly TWIP inventory reports to watch it approach. It will occur with inventories hit about 20-22 days supply or 290 million barrels of oil inventory.
    Mar 8 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
    Thanks Carl you proof my point that oil companies have deceived their customers "EROEI issues are not acknowledged by the industry as relevant." Customers paid them a profit in an implied contract to warn them of supply issues.

    As for "all liquids" is a fabrication of the oil companies and their input to EIA and IEA to show there is no need for their customers to adapt to a changing reality. Like the current "inflation" and "unemployment" statistics, the "definition" has been adapted by the reporters to show "what a good job we are doing."

    You may wish to keep feeding on your line of thinking. I believe it is a "turkey's bet," that the kind and repetitive feeding by humans will continue forever.
    Mar 8 05:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
    I love all but #2. A precious metals component would be good but as Benjamin Franklin noted a pure gold standard tends to lock wealth into the hands of the haves and fails to recognize the value of labor and innovation.

    Please add to your list to de-socialize costs, get the government out of the means of production. De-monopolizing communications infrastructure in 1984 resulted in millions of jobs, vast innovation and better services at lower costs. That can be repeated if power and transport infrastructures shift from central planning to free markets.

    End subsidies, depletion allowances and other tax breaks that socialize costs. The more true costs are equated to value in markets, the more nimble people can adapt.
    Mar 6 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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