Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
It is practical to power urban transportation within a solar budget. Our problem is the highway network requires moving a ton to move a person in congested start-stop traffic. Get rid of the parasitic mass and the start-stop and energy consumption is cut 90%. Solar collectors mounted over a JPods rail gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles per mile of rail per day.
Just as the fundamental technologies of cell nets and the Internet existed for 20 decades before 1984, the technologies exist to power transportation within a solar budget. They will only commercialize once government releases its monopoly control over network and power networks.
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
Hi DLB40
Oil is depleting. Peak Oil was 74 mb/d in 2005. We should be drilling oil wells everywhere we can, but it takes 6-10 years to bring new fields into production. Current oil fields are depleting at about 6.8% per year.
Net Energy from oil extraction on new fields is below 10:1 (energy available : energy required to get energy).
For the past 60 years economic and oil supply growth are highly correlated. seekingalpha.com/artic...
There is no way to drill our way out of this.
Railroads average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. Personal Rapid Transit, PRT, applies similar concepts to moving people and goods in cities. We will have to re-tool transportation similar to how communications was re-tooled after 1984. Government monopoly control of the means of production, control over transportation networks will have to be returned to free markets.
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
Hi Fueled by Randomness
Natural gas trucks will help in the short run.
In the long run, giving our Posterity a world with more potential than we receive requires we become net producers instead of net consumers. We have the technology to power an industrial society within a solar budget.
The Strong Link Between GDP and Oil Consumption [View article]
Here is a graph showing a 60 year correlation between growth of GDP, Oil Supply Growth and Disposable Income (disposable income's ability to buy oil). Since Peak Oil at 74 million barrels per day in 2005, the trend is severe. Disposable Energy began declining severely since 2002, when China and India began competing for energy.
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
My guess is chronic gasoline outages will start on the US East Coast in 2-18 months. Watch the weekly TWIP inventory reports to watch it approach. It will occur with inventories hit about 20-22 days supply or 290 million barrels of oil inventory.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Thanks Carl you proof my point that oil companies have deceived their customers "EROEI issues are not acknowledged by the industry as relevant." Customers paid them a profit in an implied contract to warn them of supply issues.
As for "all liquids" is a fabrication of the oil companies and their input to EIA and IEA to show there is no need for their customers to adapt to a changing reality. Like the current "inflation" and "unemployment" statistics, the "definition" has been adapted by the reporters to show "what a good job we are doing."
You may wish to keep feeding on your line of thinking. I believe it is a "turkey's bet," that the kind and repetitive feeding by humans will continue forever.
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
I love all but #2. A precious metals component would be good but as Benjamin Franklin noted a pure gold standard tends to lock wealth into the hands of the haves and fails to recognize the value of labor and innovation.
Please add to your list to de-socialize costs, get the government out of the means of production. De-monopolizing communications infrastructure in 1984 resulted in millions of jobs, vast innovation and better services at lower costs. That can be repeated if power and transport infrastructures shift from central planning to free markets.
End subsidies, depletion allowances and other tax breaks that socialize costs. The more true costs are equated to value in markets, the more nimble people can adapt.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Hi Carl, I am very interested in facts. Please provide the facts that shows crude oil supply increasing? What facts indicate that oil supply will continue to increase forever? What are the facts that show oil will be affordable and can power economic growth?
There is still plenty of oil, about half. From my perspective, it will not power the economy as we know it. The fact that most indicate this to me is that more and more families cannot afford to pay both their mortgage and commute resulting in 1 million foreclosures in 2010, 11% of US houses being empty, $11 trillion drop in property values.
Production and population statistics indicate the same. World Crude Oil Production peaked at 74 million barrels a day in 2005. Net Energy from oil peak in about 1900 at about 100:1 (100 barrels of useful energy per barrel required to extract that energy). Affordable oil peaked in about 1995. Energy from oil per person peaked in about 1978.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Here is the US Joint Forces view of oil. General Mattis in now back in command of both wars. I think the assessment is correct.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."
"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Hi Rick, our view of capitalism is very far apart. I think it is the economic system most in tune with human nature, not 1%. Any system that has 1% market share would suck. Your view of customers as idiots to be exploited is not capitalism. To not have respect for your customers is not capitalism. You talk about the many, customers, like they are Lenin's nameless masses.
I have a deep interest that my customers profit from our exchange, that we each of us want to repeat the transaction because of the benefits we each received. I want and seek their trust because it lowers my costs to transact with them.
I believe I have a self-interest, moral and contractual obligation to disclose to my customers aspects of my expertise that affect the benefits they hope or perceive they will receive. The contract does not have to be written for me to know my responsibilities and self-interest that comes from trust.
It was in the oil companies' self-interest to warn their customers of higher oil prices and the risks of Peak Oil. It would have allowed them to slow depletion rates so their reserves would have lasted longer, it would have allowed them to increase the price of a barrel of oil to above $200, it would have won them customer loyalty. Instead they used their position as "experts" to create oil's Potato Famine potential. seekingalpha.com/artic...
They treated their customers as you seem be believe customers should be treated, with "no moral obligation," where trust has no value.
6 Deeply Undervalued Solar Companies [View article]
March 23 JPods, Inc. will start building the first solar-powered transportation network in China. By July 4th we would like to have one operating in Hull, MA and New Jersey. The first of these networks will use collectors 4 meters wide by several kilometers long. These networks operate at about 4 cents per vehicle mile versus 56 cents for cars, trains and buses.
The cost savings of using the distributed nature of the transportation networks to harvest distributed solar energy will create a large and stable market for solar companies.
I would recommend buying solar manufacturers that can benefit from a large stable commercial market.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Thanks for getting the point. Had we de-socialize all energy costs, alternatives would have incrementally shifted technologies. To survive the next 20 years, we are going to need to keep subsidizing oil, but those companies should not profit by deceiving their customers.
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
Just as the fundamental technologies of cell nets and the Internet existed for 20 decades before 1984, the technologies exist to power transportation within a solar budget. They will only commercialize once government releases its monopoly control over network and power networks.
5 Railroad Stocks for the Long Haul [View article]
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
Oil is depleting. Peak Oil was 74 mb/d in 2005. We should be drilling oil wells everywhere we can, but it takes 6-10 years to bring new fields into production. Current oil fields are depleting at about 6.8% per year.
Net Energy from oil extraction on new fields is below 10:1 (energy available : energy required to get energy).
For the past 60 years economic and oil supply growth are highly correlated. seekingalpha.com/artic...
There is no way to drill our way out of this.
Railroads average over 400 ton-miles per gallon. Personal Rapid Transit, PRT, applies similar concepts to moving people and goods in cities. We will have to re-tool transportation similar to how communications was re-tooled after 1984. Government monopoly control of the means of production, control over transportation networks will have to be returned to free markets.
docs.google.com/docume...
Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence, Part I [View article]
Natural gas trucks will help in the short run.
In the long run, giving our Posterity a world with more potential than we receive requires we become net producers instead of net consumers. We have the technology to power an industrial society within a solar budget.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
We will have to abandon the artifacts of the oil-powered economy. Investing in PRT is going to create another railroad boom.
The Strong Link Between GDP and Oil Consumption [View article]
The Strong Link Between GDP and Oil Consumption [View article]
seekingalpha.com/insta...
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
As for "all liquids" is a fabrication of the oil companies and their input to EIA and IEA to show there is no need for their customers to adapt to a changing reality. Like the current "inflation" and "unemployment" statistics, the "definition" has been adapted by the reporters to show "what a good job we are doing."
You may wish to keep feeding on your line of thinking. I believe it is a "turkey's bet," that the kind and repetitive feeding by humans will continue forever.
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
Please add to your list to de-socialize costs, get the government out of the means of production. De-monopolizing communications infrastructure in 1984 resulted in millions of jobs, vast innovation and better services at lower costs. That can be repeated if power and transport infrastructures shift from central planning to free markets.
End subsidies, depletion allowances and other tax breaks that socialize costs. The more true costs are equated to value in markets, the more nimble people can adapt.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
There is still plenty of oil, about half. From my perspective, it will not power the economy as we know it. The fact that most indicate this to me is that more and more families cannot afford to pay both their mortgage and commute resulting in 1 million foreclosures in 2010, 11% of US houses being empty, $11 trillion drop in property values.
Production and population statistics indicate the same. World Crude Oil Production peaked at 74 million barrels a day in 2005. Net Energy from oil peak in about 1900 at about 100:1 (100 barrels of useful energy per barrel required to extract that energy). Affordable oil peaked in about 1995. Energy from oil per person peaked in about 1978.
Please, list your facts.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."
"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."
Foward by General James N Mattis
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
I have a deep interest that my customers profit from our exchange, that we each of us want to repeat the transaction because of the benefits we each received. I want and seek their trust because it lowers my costs to transact with them.
I believe I have a self-interest, moral and contractual obligation to disclose to my customers aspects of my expertise that affect the benefits they hope or perceive they will receive. The contract does not have to be written for me to know my responsibilities and self-interest that comes from trust.
It was in the oil companies' self-interest to warn their customers of higher oil prices and the risks of Peak Oil. It would have allowed them to slow depletion rates so their reserves would have lasted longer, it would have allowed them to increase the price of a barrel of oil to above $200, it would have won them customer loyalty. Instead they used their position as "experts" to create oil's Potato Famine potential. seekingalpha.com/artic...
They treated their customers as you seem be believe customers should be treated, with "no moral obligation," where trust has no value.
6 Deeply Undervalued Solar Companies [View article]
The cost savings of using the distributed nature of the transportation networks to harvest distributed solar energy will create a large and stable market for solar companies.
I would recommend buying solar manufacturers that can benefit from a large stable commercial market.
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]
Why a Windfall Profit Tax Is Needed for Oil Companies [View article]