Bill James

Commodity Forecast for 2010, 2011

Korea: joongangdaily.joins.co...
Sweden: 74.125.93.132/search?q...

Commodity Forecast for 2010, 2011

Steel, copper and aluminum will also have very large demand growth as Personal Rapid Transit networks begin to be deployed in large numbers. These networks operate using about 85% less energy per passenger-mile than cars, trains or buses.

England: www.ultraprt.com/cms/
Korea:
Sweden:
US: www.jpods.com/HomePBHu...
China: www.jpods.com/HomePBKu...

The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks

Have you seen the CSX commercials where they talk about "moving a ton 423 miles on one gallon of fuel"? Why in repetitive urban transport are we moving a person at 18 mpg? We can do so much better if we shift the paradigm from the automobile to PRT (Personal Rapid Transit). JPods is an example.

We are going to start building JPods networks soon. These networks use the distributed nature of the transportation network to harvest distributed natural power sources.

By driving energy consumption down 85% to 150 watt-hours per passenger mile (cars - 1033, buses - 1246, trains - 900, planes -950) it solar-power practical. Collectors 2 meters wide mounted over the rails gather 5,000-12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day (below 45 degrees).

It is necessary to displace 70% of urban oil-powered transportation in the next 12 years. Failing that, the food distribution system with follow the Malthusian collapse of the banking system. The 12 years is very difficult and forced by Peak Oil realities. Avoiding collapse assumes world peace, no major hurricane hitting Houston, no major earthquakes, stable oil prices, no terrorist attacks of note, etc....

What Happened to Peak Oil?

Converting urban transportation to PRT (Personal Rapid Transit), with vehicle of 200-400 mpg, will make a significant difference.
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone?

Thanks for the insight and graphics. Demand destruction equals economic destruction.

Oil: Does Supply and Demand Still Apply?

Oil production does not really matter. There will be some minor increases in production as mega-projects come on line.

Ignore the really big whoppers of politics, hoarding and weather. These can completely disrupt current concepts of supply and demand.

What is critical is oil available to be bought. Tally production increases, current field depletions and increasing domestic consumption in oil to get World Oil Exports or Net Oil Exports. This peaked in 2005 at 46.342 mbpd, 2006 at 45.838 mbpd, 2007 at 44.832 mbpd, 2008 at about 43.8 mbpd.

From the peak, this creates an oil deficit 3 times larger than the deficit caused by the 1973 Oil Embargo.

Worse, Economic Growth is equal to Energy Growth times Efficiency Growth. Energy Growth has stopped. Efficiency has not changed much. The decay in Economic Growth can be seen in foreclosures.

On the good side, efficiency in urban transportation is at 4%. This can be increased to about 70%. seekingalpha.com/artic...

An Energy Policy that Makes Cents (and Sense)

I would like to talk with you about adjusting a few of your tasks.

1. Self-reliance is vital.
1. a. Priority 1. Everyone plant a garden. It takes 3-5 years to become a competent gardener. It takes 2-5 years for many trees and berries to start providing crops.
1. b. Elect local block captains and organize emergency food storage and distribution in the event of a transport break-down, strike, terrorist attack, storm, etc.... Risks exceed 100%, uncertainty exceeds risk.

1. c. Practice deprivation. Two days a summer, have bike day to work for everyone. Close gas stations one day each weekend. Drop speed limits to 55 mph.

2. Free markets.
2. a. De-monopolizing communications infrastructure caused a radical re-tooling and cost savings.
2. b. Allow Feed-in Tariffs to create a free market. Power generation infrastructure is 69% inefficient (Livermore National Labs) because the regulatory monopoly protects that inefficiency from competition. Germany de-monopolized power generation infrastructure. At a latitude of Winnipeg Canada and the size of two mid-western states, now has more solar collectors than the entire United States. Last year Germans, at private risk, installed 4,000 megawatts of renewable power generation. California's highly subsidized regulated market has added 242 megawatts in the last 5 years. Free markets innovate.
2. c. Allow free market transportation networks. Regulated transportation is 80% inefficient (Livermore Labs) because current transportation is regulated and blocks innovation. CSX (railroad company) is currently running a TV add showing a Prius being loaded onto a rail care and state the can "move a ton 423 miles on a gallon of fuel." Yet ultra-light automated guideways, like Morgantown's Personal Rapid Transit (PRT), are blocked from deployment by urban planners. Morgantown's PRT was built to combat the 1973 Oil Embargo and has delivered 110 million injury-free, oil-free passenger miles. Bureaucrats have no checklist for innovation.
2. d. Stop worrying about CAFE standards; they are a red herring. We have the capacity, like Morgantown's PRT to change highly repetitive travel from a high cost capital event (car, gas, parking, real estate, etc....) to a lower cost service at 200 miles per gallon. Oil prices doubled in 2007, we have a 2X per year problem. CAFE standards are weak by 100 times, they are a .02X per year solution (50% increase in standards divided by 25 years to rotate the car fleet. We must preempt the problem, we cannot adjust it.

3. Women's rights and birth control.

4. Universal service for 6 months to strengthen the social fabric and train in civil defense.