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Oil-Powered Economies Are Dying
Economies based on cheap oil are dying. Investments in self-reliance, railroads, Personal Rapid Transit and other sustainable infrastructure will likely be the most survivable forms of investments. Choosing companies is hard. The scale of the adjustment will create significant turbulance.
Todays markets for Economic Work (energy applied to making and delivering goods and services) are gravely distorted by government policies. Here is are charts of US oil production, oil imports and debt.
If transportation were a capitalist industry, all costs of building highways and using oil would have to be capitalized into the price of a gallon of gasoline or tolls on highways. But since World War I and on an industrial scale, since The Federal-Aid Highways Act of 1956 the US government has controlled the means of production in transportation infrastructure. Oil costs that would have disrupted the Federal planned economy were socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into the price of a gallon of gas.
Also in 1956, the same year the Interstate Highway networks were funded, the fact that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970 was highly published. Government officials knew they were "kicking the can down the road," building infrastructure for which there would not be secure, affordable oil to power.
US Peak Oil was in 1970, World Peak Oil was at 74 million barrels a day in 2005, US Peak Debt was in Sept 2008, US Peak Money Printing is approaching. These facts will shape every investment for the next 20 years.
Self-Reliance Papers #1: Constitution's Federal Mission
Self-Reliance Papers #1: Constitution's Federal Mission
This is a request to all Americans to ask the Supreme Court to use their upcoming decision on the 2010 Federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, nicknamed ObamaCare, to declare The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 unconstitutional. The reason both laws are unconstitutional is outlined in this paper.
The future consequences of ObamaCare may be wonderful or bad. After half a century, the unintended consequences of The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 have revealed themselves as the civilization killers of Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt. A speedy decision by the Supreme Court to assert the Constitution's limitation to only "promote" welfare is a chance to:
I apologize for the blunt introduction of ideas and my limited writing skills. Supporting facts are in the public domain and will be provided in future papers.
Call to Action: Use rising gas price and other consequences of The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 in the coming US Supreme Court judgment on ObamaCare to illustrate why all Federal provision of welfare is unconstitutional. Encourage States to assert their rights and duties to tax for and provide welfare such as transportation and health care.
Linking The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 to ObamaCare is done for four practical reasons:
I know many who support ObamaCare are concerned with Climate Change and many who oppose ObamaCare support continued Federal subsidies for highways/oil. I believe survival depends on setting aside partisan differences and joining around Constitutional principles.
Being "laboratories of democracy" and providing welfare are within the mission of State governments. Within my limited understanding, ObamaCare and the 2006 Massachusetts Act Providing Access to Affordable, Quality, Affordable Health Care, nicknamed RomneyCare, seem nearly identical. RomneyCare is Constitutional for exactly the same reason ObamaCare is not. States have the Constitutional duty to both experiment with and provide welfare. The Federal mission is restricted to only "promote" welfare; Federal actions must stay focused on the awesomely difficult and rarely achieved objective to "provide defense" of liberty for us and our "Posterity."
Currently we are failing the Federal mission by depleting resources (Peak Oil) needed by our Posterity while enslaving them with Debts they have no representation in approving. Add to that failure continuous military engagements since 1990 for foreign oil. Add to that Climate Change. Civilization killers created by Federal managed infrastructure.
Background: The Constitution defines the mission of the Federal government,
Problem: The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, provided the Interstate Highways. With 1/3rd of all miles now driven on Interstates, these highways shaped how cities were built and made oil the lifeblood of America's economy. The infrastructure built effectively mandates that to earn a living Americans must borrow money from a bank, buy a car, and buy gasoline. This mandatory purchase of products is identical to the States' objection to ObamaCare.
Solution: Self-reliance is the solution to imported oil.
As much as Americans love Interstate Freeways, our lament for the oil addiction they cause will grow and should focus on The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956.
Consequence: Treason. "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort."
Addiction to imported oil is an enemy, more deadly than most. We built it and aided its expansion to 60% of our needs.
Eight successive Presidents have declared imported oil a threat to national security, an enemy of the Constitution. In the same period, government monopolies built infrastructure, including federal interstate highways and rural electrification, that has caused the loss of thousands of miles of railroads, hundreds of thousands of windmills, blocked innovations and required oil import increase from 20% to 60% of needs. As noted by Article III, Section 3 above, treason does not require intent, only giving an enemy "Aid and Comfort" as the increase to 60% of needs indicates.
Declaring the problem as treason is inflammatory. True, but blunt. In 1956 it was known that US oil production would peak in 1970, yet for short term political gain, Federal officials addicted Americans to oil. I do not doubt the elements of good intent, but the Federal mission is not to intend to defend liberty, but to defend her. Americans are now experiencing the slow unfolding of oil's Potato Famine, consequences of a monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control. Made worse, in that we must borrow to import oil.
Scale of the Consequence: Life requires energy. Less affordable energy, less life. Oil is finite, so life and nations based on oil are terminal.
Add up all the output from all the oil wells in the United States and Peak Oil was in 1970. Federal policy has since been to sell American self-reliance for debt in exchange for imported oil. Instead of capitalizing the excessive costs of this policy so Americans could adapt in a free market, costs like oil depletion and wars to defend foreign oil were socialized into the national debt.
When anyone promises "We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years, and my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy," we should be terrified. Shifting infrastructure typically requires 30 to 200 years. Depleting the last resources while socializing the cost onto our Posterity is unconstitutional.
The Constitution requires "secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity." Solar energy is abundant, so life and nations based on forms of solar energy can achieve abundance. The only barrier to powering our cities within a solar budget by 2020 is the same barrier that kept the Internet from commercializing for 20 year: Federal commercial monopolies. We do not have an energy problem, we have a central planning problem.
Timeline on the Consequence: Political instability could collapse the oil-powered economy any day. Events in Iran and Mexico seem extremely likely to collapse the US food system in the next 0 to 18 months. At most, given world peace, geology will force the collapse along the time-line noted by the Joint Forces Command in 2010:
There is precious little time before our lament of higher gas prices turns to desperation for food. Plant a Victory Garden as a statement of personal commitment to self-reliance. If everyone grows a third of their own food, the coming oil supply shocks will not cause a famine.
Federalist Papers: In the 37-year struggle to establish a government based on liberty, the Founders recognized that every act of government is the act of "interested men." To limit human nature from doing harm in the name of doing good, the Federal government was to be limited, frugal, balanced and have the single mission of defending liberty. The Constitution's mission statement is specific, "provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare"
The Federalist Papers written by Hamilton, Madison and Jay in support of the Constitution's ratification explain the intent of the Constitution. The Constitution intended that governments of the Federal and States were to have different missions and balance the other's power as they compete for the affections and willingness of the people to be taxed:
The mission of the Federal government is to be the best in the world at providing defense of personal liberty and limited to being only a cheerleader promoting welfare.
Limit on the Commerce Clause
Madison, Father of the Constitution and Bill of Rights states unequivocally that Federal taxes would not pay for "forms of conveyances." The power to "regulate" commerce did not extend to managing commerce and is primarily intended to avoid defense entanglements. "Postal roads" is a limitation to support the technology of free speech at the time, not moving cargo or people.
Opposed to Constitutional ratification, the Anti-Federalist Papers objected that limits on powers were not specific enough to prevent the encroachments as exemplified by the Federal highway monopolies addressed in this paper:
After the Constitution's ratification, the Anti-Federalist movement faded. Yet, Madison consolidated their concerns into the Bill of Rights and pushed through ratification. The Bill of Rights more specifically states the Federal limits to stay outside the creative-destruction of speech, religion, commerce and powers belonging to the States and the People. In a world of potential enemies and human frailties, the Federal government has a difficult, single, vital purpose: defend liberty.
The daily commitment of US military forces since 1990 in protecting access to foreign oil underscores the failure of current political leaders to enforce the primary mission of the Constitution. The need for foreign oil is a requirement of the highway monopoly.
Free Market Solutions: America is a capitalist nation for one reason, love of personal liberty.
There is no smaller minority than the lone inventor. People like Franklin, Henry, Washington, Paine, Jefferson, Madison, Goodyear, Bell, Edison, Ford, the Wright Brothers, Gates and Jobs are, at the beginning of their efforts, outcasts, traitors to the established order. For every name we know there are thousands whose contributions pushed an idea, industry or innovation ahead while their efforts went unrecognized and unrewarded. Free markets are both unkind to and the only hope of innovators.
Vendors present their ideas to customers. When the government is the customer, consistency, better "know-how" dominates. We get ever more of what we have. Solutions are then pushed on to users as the only or a limited choice.
Vendors in a free market must differentiate their offering to attract customers. Some offer lower prices, and/or better service, and/or innovation. Most innovations fail, some are elevated by customers to commercial success and a very few create a 10x, ten times better solution that shifts the paradigm to a change in "know-what." Long dormant under the Federal monopoly before 1984, the Internet, cell phones and personal computers changed the world once liberty to choose networks was returned to free market choice in 1984.
America's Founders structured the Federal government based on the need for minority innovators and the wisdom of the many. The States, innovators, and governments closer to the people were to provide a forum for minority opinions and be "laboratories of democracy" framing the choices. The Senate, representing the State governments and protecting minority views, was to represent choices applicable to the Federal mission. The House was to represent the wisdom of the many in choosing between choices.
Unfortunately, in 1913 the 17th Amendment, which established direct election of United States Senators by popular vote, shifted this balance. Four years later, in the emergency of mobilizing to fight World War I, special Interests stepped into the State roll of framing choices. Communications, power and transportation infrastructures were monopolized/socialized as "natural monopolies" with contracts granted to those special Interests. Special Interests still dominate the framing of Federal laws.
In 1984 communications was returned to free markets. A century of rotary telephones was displaced as millions of jobs were needed to create and build innovations that provided better service at lower costs. Long dormant, the Internet and cell phones found commercial niches to refine and scale to commercial acceptance. That success will be repeated once transportation and power infrastructures are returned to free markets. We will accomplish what Thomas Edison noted as practical in 1910:
When liberty to choose transport and power networks are returned to the people, innovators will find customers to support a change in "know-what." The interaction between innovators and customers will refine innovations into commercially scale-able products.
Privately funded freight railroads average over 450 ton-miles per gallon. The Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) network in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million injury-free, oil-free passenger-miles. We need personal mobility, we do not need to burn oil moving a ton to move a person on congested highways.
West Point's System Engineering text identifies the problem of government monopolies:
The highway monopoly caused the loss of thousands of miles of railroads and delayed expansion of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) networks since Morgantown. My understanding in this paper is based on a 12-year effort to invent and build JPods PRT. JPods are ultra-light personal railroads that cut the cost of urban transport from 56 cent a mile for your car to 4 cents a mile. Cutting energy required by 85% makes it possible for solar collectors over the rails to gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day: urban transportation within a solar budget. This 10x savings allows the networks to be built and operated with private capital. Our to-date rejected request of government monopolies has been to allow a free market by granting rights-of way access to anyone that will:
My hope: That the Supreme Court's decision on ObamaCare will declare The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 and all Federal monopolies unconstitutional. Five million jobs will be created within 4 years and American cities will be powered within a solar budget by 2020. We have a bright future.
If we unleash private capital's ability to provide innovative energy-efficient transportation, a rapid transition to abundance is possible. On the other hand, if we remain in denial of our addiction oil and debt, weaning ourselves is going to be very painful. Meaningful work but painful.
Disposable Energy is how much energy a family's disposable income will buy, energy we can apply to accomplish economic work towards our happiness. Disposable Energy shows what
most families currently feel, a crash similar to the 1973 Oil Embargo. Oil powered economies in the US and Europe are collapsing at the relentless pace of oil field depletion.
Life requires energy. Affordable access to oil energy is crashing. Our choices in the next few months will play out over the next 20 years in one of two choices:
Current interests will likely fight to delay ending monopolies that protect their interests from free market competition. So a Supreme Court decision that enforces the Constitution and ends Federal policy that mandates oil addiction seems a key way to get timely action.
Self-reliance is local, We the People, self-reliant, are the foundation of individual liberty:
Thanks
Bill
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: Author is the founder and fully invested in JPods, Inc.
ObamaCare Unconstitutional, Gas Prices Show Why
ObamaCare is being challenged in the Supreme Court because the individual mandate requires Americans to buy insurance. The harm in Federal monopolies requiring purchases can be seen in The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 creation of Oil's Potato Famine.
Getting and keeping a job in America, requires each of us borrow money from a bank, buy a car, built by a union and fuel it with gasoline from an oil company. Interstates, with 1/3rd of miles driven on them, shaped the car culture, American cities, industries and made oil the lifeblood of America's economy. Oil is finite. Life and nations based on oil are terminal. America's Founders were wise to limit the Federal government to only promote, not provide welfare. Socialism, government control of the means of product created civilization killers of Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt.
Following is a summary of the Constitutional limit to only promote welfare, oil's Potato Famine and free market solutions.
Constitution: Promote Welfare:
In the 37 year struggle to establish a government based on liberty, the Founders recognized that every act of government is the act of "interested men." To limit human nature from doing harm in the name of doing good, the Federal government was to be limited, frugal, balanced and have the single mission of defending liberty. A secondary aspect of defense was to regulate commerce to avoid defense entanglements.
The restrictions to "regulate" not manage commerce, to "promote" not "provide" welfare are underscored in many of the Federalist Papers. Hamilton, Madison and Jay wrote these Papers in support of the Constitution's ratification:
Madison specifically states that Federal taxes would not pay for "forms of conveyances."
Opposed to Constitutional ratification, the Anti-Federalist Papers objected that limits on powers were not specific enough to avoid consequences from Federal encroachment:
After the Constitution's ratification, the Anti-Federalist movement faded. Yet, Madison consolidated their concerns into the Bill of Rights and pushed it through ratification. These first 10 Amendments more specifically state the Federal limits to stay outside the creative-destruction of speech, religion, commerce and powers belonging to the States and the People.
Oil's Potato Famine
In the same year as The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 expanded America's oil use into an addiction, Dr. Hubbert published the fact that Peak Oil would be in 1970. A year later Admiral Richover echoed the warning. The list of those warning has grown ever since. In 2010 the Joint Forces Command published a warning to US military commands:
Oil is finite. Life and nations based on oil are finite. Violating the Constitution, shaping infrastructure to mandate the purchase of oil, The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, bound the survival of America and Americans to ever less affordable, depleting and uncertain foreign sources of oil. Oil's Potato Famine potential is a monolithic dependence on an source of oil 60% outside our control.
Peak Oil Graph
The graph on the left shows Peak Oil (light blue), oil imports (dark blue), and national debt (GOLD). Increasing national debt and oil imports are highly correlated. The graph on the right shows Disposable Energy, disposable incomes ability to buy energy. The steady increase of Disposable Energy in the 1960 underscores the short-term benefits we all enjoyed. The crash in 1973 and today underscore that life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life.
Since 1970 Federal energy policy has been to sell American self-reliance; debt for imported oil. In a period when eight Presidents declare imported an enemy of the Constitution, the Federal monopoly borrowed and taxed to expand its highways, increasing imported oil needs from 20% to 60% of total requirements.
The sacrifice of American self-reliance, even survival, underscores government cannot be trusted to control the means of production.
The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 provides solid proof of the wisdom of the Founders to limit the Federal government to only "promote" welfare. Providing welfare caused:
My hope is the harmful consequence of Federal providing welfare will be used for the Supreme Court's deliberation. Civilization killers of Peak Oil, Climate Change and Debt are consequence caused by a Federal commercial monopoly mandating the purchase of oil to keep a job while socializing vast costs of using oil into the national debt.
Free Market Solutions
Free markets, each of us voting every day with our wallets, without the government socializing costs of pollution and wars, but companies capitalizing all costs into product prices, can sense and adapt. All costs include resource depletion, debt, pollution, restoration to like use and other aspects of our duty to our Posterity.
Privately funded freight railroads average over 450 ton-miles per gallon. The Personal Rapid Transit network in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million injury-free, oil-free passenger-miles. Our ideals and ethics are those of self-reliance, personal responsibility and person liberty. We know far more today about energy, manufacturing and technology than at any time in history. Since the 1984 return of communication infrastructure to a free market these insights have been applied to communications.
In a free market, my guess is that by 2020 $11 trillion dollars of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) networks will be built bringing freight rail efficiency to urban transportation. Cutting cost per passenger mile from 56 cents to 4 cents will create an economic boom similar to the building of railroads in the late 1800's.
Railroads were the circulatory system for the Industrial Revolution and catalyst for changing the energy system from biofuels to fossil fuels. Similarly PRT networks will be the catalyst for rebuilding America manufacturing base and shifting energy systems from fossil to solar.
The United States of America were founded powered within a solar budget. We know far more about manufacturing, science and energy than any time in history. Since being return to free markets in 1984, we have applied this learning to communications. When power and transportation are returned to free markets we will accomplish what Thomas Edison noted as practical in 1910:
JPods, Inc. of which I am a founder has one signed agreement to build solar-powered JPods networks in Kunming, China. We expect a second in Dongguan, China in the next week. Here are links to example networks at the Meadowlands, NJ and Hull, MA.
Getting permission to innovate is the US is still delayed after 12 years of wading through a hell of mindless political devotion to 20 and 30 year central plans for highways for which there is no plan for and no affordable oil to power. Peak Oil was in 1970. Peak Debt was in 2008. We are approaching Peak Money Printing.
Life requires energy. Breaking the Federal monopolies that bind America's economy to imported oil, powering America's urban economy within a solar budget will create growth at least as explosive as the end of the Federal monopoly over communications in 1984.
ObamaCare is Unconstitutional
The Constitution limits Federal actions to a primary purpose, defending liberty. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 provides welfare, proves harm by forcing a monolithic dependence on a source of energy 60% outside our control, endless wars to protect foreign oil, Climate Change, Peak Oil and Debt.
If the Supreme Court performs its duty, it will reject ObamaCare's attempt to create another Federal commercial monopoly as well as terminate all the unconstitutional Federal monopolies.
American self-reliance, in a free market will change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: I am a founder and fully invested in JPods, Inc.