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Bill James
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Bill received a BS in 1972 from West Point with concentrations in math, physics, chemistry, and engineering. He was an NCAA All American Wrestler and captain of the wrestling team. He is an eight-year infantry veteran, Airborne, Ranger, Arctic Light and Mechanized Infantry in the United States... More
My company:
JPods, Inc.
My blog:
jpods.com
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  • UGA Will Jump If War By Nov 22

    "We have made it crystal clear - in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror," Danny Danon, Israel's deputy defense minister told USA TODAY.

    The time limit for action was set at no more than 4 weeks. The ultimatum was set Oct 25th. Four weeks from the ultimatum is Nov 22nd, "The clear red line."

    This announcement seems like the last warning is a sequence of statements including Prime Minister Netanyahu UN Speech of Sept 27, 2012. This has been emphasized by others.

    The Israelis remember two lessons:

    • In the 6 Day War preemptive strikes decimated a growing risk.
    • In the Yom Kipper War the threats were known, understood and discounted. The surprise attack nearly ended their national existence.

    Consequences of an Israeli-Iranian war are not currently factored into prices in the oil markets. (UGA) and (RBOB) have not reflected the supply disruptions that will certainly occur.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Oct 28 12:01 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Hyperloop: Radically More Efficient Transportation

    Today's announcement of Hyperloop by Elon Musk should come as no surprise. Radically safer and more efficient transportation is known:

    • Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon.
    • The Personal Rapid Transit (PRT or PodCar) network in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles. Attached are letters from the Mayor of Morgantown on the effectiveness of PRT in his city and Senators just after the 1973 Oil Embargo on PRT as a solution to energy self-reliance and economic stability. (click to enlarge)

    Yet the announcement will come as a surprise to many. It is at 1:30 PDT.

    Teasers are:

    Musk's Tesla Motors (TSLA) and SolarCity (SCTY) are up 300% over the last year. The investment opportunities of thinking differently about transportation and energy are profound.

    Innovation in transportation is still very complex. Government monopolies dominate the market. Most of the opportunities in the market are private. ET3 and JPods (author is the founder of JPods) are examples.

    Investments into this market will likely progress quickly once a legal framework for privately funded transportation is restored.

    Investors will have to watch for those opportunities. The scale of the investment opportunity is enormous. Costs can be converted to profits. According to DOE cars average 32.4 passenger-miles per gallon. Freight railroads are over 130 times more efficient, averaging 480 ton-miles per gallon. Companies that convert these costs to profits will dominate investment opportunities in the coming decade.

    Freight rail efficiencies are practical in systems such at ET3 and Hyperloop.

    My technology, JPods is only 90% more efficient than highways. JPods networks are not fast. They just get you to and from work at 1/10th the energy and no car payment.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: Author is the founder of JPods, an urban transportation network.

    Tags: SCTY, long-ideas
    Aug 12 7:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Worst Economy In 83 Years

    "this is also the worst economy in 83 years," reports CNBC.

    The Economic Flywheel and Disposable Energy provide a metric that may help investors in the current environment of artificial markets.

    Economic momentum is slowing. The economy is an artifact of energy applied by labor to create economic work. As economic work is added to the Economic Flywheel, momentum builds.

    (click to enlarge)

    As energy cost increase, less energy is applied to generate work, the flywheel loses momentum and the economy slows.

    GDP can be improved by artifical manipulations such as Quantitative Easing, spending of borrowed money, debt purchases of foreign oil, etc.... It is these powerful, yet artificial manipulations that complicate investing today. Fundamentals of profitability, market growth, low debt, etc... are subordinated to Fed and Federal policies.

    (click to enlarge)Disposable Energy

    A better metric of economic health and long-term investments is Disposable Energy. Disposable Energy is peoples disposable income's ability to buy energy. Disposable Energy provided years of warning of the Sept 2008 crash while GDP gave no warning and growth of GDP gave only minor warnings and not until 2008.

    (click to enlarge)Gas prices

    Simply measuring gasoline prices two years ago provides a better metric than GDP.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: long-ideas
    May 02 12:49 PM | Link | Comment!
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