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Bill L.  

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  • Market recap: Stocks advanced following talk of additional central bank stimulus from Japan, positive economic reports (I, II) and potential progress over the debt ceiling. Most S&P sectors gained, but banks lagged after BofA and Citigroup issued disappointing quarterly reports (I, II). Crude oil rose 1.3% to four-month highs amid the hostage crisis at an Algerian oil field. [View news story]
    Today's Short Term Technical Update:

    -Bill L.
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The Dow and S&P reversed early losses to finish higher, but further losses for Apple - which closed below $500 for the first time in 11 months - weighed techs, and trading remained slow ahead of some major earnings reports tomorrow, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and eBay. Consumer companies led the way thanks to encouraging retail sales data[View news story]
    Today's Short Market Comment:

    And in case you missed it, the most recent Short Term Technical Update:

    -Bill L.
    Jan 15, 2013. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    In case you missed it, yesterday's "Short Term Technical Update"

    -Bill L.
    Jan 15, 2013. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks crawled through a lackluster session to end mixed, weighed by worries over demand for Apple's iPhone 5 and as investors sat on the sidelines ahead of more corporate earnings as well as a Bernanke late-afternoon speech. Dell soared on a report it was in buyout talks with at least two PE firms. Crude oil futures settled above $94, helped by a weaker dollar. [View news story]
    Today's Short Term Technical Update:

    Short comment tomorrow, next full update Wednesday.

    -Bill L.
    Jan 14, 2013. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, January 10th, 2013 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Sorry this was suppose to come out this morning, but it didn't go through. Short comment after the close.

    -Bill L.
    Jan 10, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks retreated from Friday's five-year highs with most key sectors finishing in negative territory, led by energy and utilities. With little U.S. economic data to parse, investors mostly stayed on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's start of the Q4 earnings season. Treasury prices, battered in recent sessions, turned down slightly ahead of the week’s government debt auctions. [View news story]
    Short Term Technical Update For Monday, January 7:

    -Bill L.
    Jan 8, 2013. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks recouped yesterday's losses, after December job growth roughly met estimates and non-manufacturing activity was surprisingly strong. The S&P finished its best week in 13 months and its highest close since Dec. 2007, which chart-watchers see as a precursor to a return to 1500 and above. Treasurys were little changed on the day, but were hit hard for the week. [View news story]
    This week's sentiment review:

    Have a good weekend,
    -Bill L.
    Jan 4, 2013. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The realization that the Fed’s bond-buying programs may not last forever turned stocks negative and pushed Treasurys lower. In exposing a rift among FOMC members, the minutes left little clear indication which course the Fed would choose. While most sectors slipped, Ford and GM rallied to 52-week highs after both automakers posted December sales that topped expectations. [View news story]
    Today's Short Market Comment:

    In case you missed it, the most recent Short Term Technical Update:

    -Bill L.
    Jan 3, 2013. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. ADP Jobs Report: +215K vs. +150K consensus, 118K prior. [View news story]
    The current "Short Term Technical Update" :

    -Bill L.
    Jan 3, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment Update December 10-14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Sorry about the lack of content the last week. After telling my parents I'm not getting a flu shot because they are for old people, I got the flu. Thank you fate, I'd forgotten what irony felt like. Back at the desk with a definite publishing schedule now. Let's make 2013 a good one!

    -Bill L.
    Jan 3, 2013. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Wall Street celebrated the last-minute budget deal, renewing enthusiasm for risk assets and pushing the Dow to its best one-day point gain since July 2011. But opinions vary widely over how long the sugar high will last. Treasurys saw heavy selling, with 30-year and 10-year yields jumping to respective multi-month highs of 3.046% and 1.839%. [View news story]
    Hope everyone had a happy new year's, back at the desk with a "Short Term Technical Update":

    Good hunting,
    -Bill L.
    Jan 3, 2013. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Nonfarm payrolls: The guts aren't as pretty as the headline. Revisions downward to the Sept. and Oct. numbers total 49K, about equal to the 53K beat. The improvement in the unemployment rate comes as the labor force participation rate falls to 63.6% from 63.8. The employment-population ratio falls to 58.7% from 58.8%. The average workweek is flat at 34.4 hours. [View news story]
    The Fed "printing money" is an oversimplification, and people on welfare are not the beneficiaries of the fractional reserve banking system. In a fractional reserve system the Fed and their customers (consumer banks) are creating credit. While this is a growth in money supply, this is not the same as simply printing money and giving it away. I do not approve of indefinite welfare, but historical evidence is very clear, when credit is grown in this fashion the big beneficiaries are not those on the low spectrum of the economic food chain. They in fact are hurt the most since they are the most affected by inflation. They big beneficiaries are 1) financial paper assets, and thus the holders of such assets 2) those who under the Fed's provision are allowed to create loans while only having a fraction held in reserves (especially if you are not held accountable for losses, thank you tax payers). In both cases this tends to be Banks. In the simplest terms, Banks win, the majority tends to lose.

    The entire economic/political discussion right now is about one thing: pain. There is a lot if coming, it is past due and everyone is going to feel it. Special interest are jockeying to make sure their share is the smallest.

    -Bill L.
    Dec 7, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Morning, December 5, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Trading is never easy, and it won't get easier by switching your trading vehicle to commodities or fine art. I wouldn't consider speculating in these markets without some sort of specialized insight or a few years of study. Art and collectibles are notorious for crashing and having an incredibly illiquid market.

    I hope that didn't come as a criticism, and I only say this because I consider you a friend as you've been a big supporter of my work. Early in my career I traded stocks, options, commodities, etc and did so poorly. Mostly because I was a "jack of all trades" (not even a jack , more like a 2 or a 3). I was trading different instruments out of boredom or the feeling of lack of action in the S&P. Looking back these were all mistakes, and very costly.

    -Bill L.
    Dec 5, 2012. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Morning, December 5, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    I have some thoughts on this, I'll write a full post on it rather than just a few sentences in a comments box.

    -Bill L.
    Dec 5, 2012. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks finished slightly lower in trading confined to a narrow range, and that's the way things could continue for a while, as "the bears don't feel comfortable and the bulls don't feel comfortable, and people don't have a reason to be involved" amid the lingering fiscal cliff fight and macroeconomic concerns. Gold slumped below $1,700/oz., blamed on technical pressure following short-selling in Asia. [View news story]
    The Short Term Technical Update:

    -Bill L.
    Dec 5, 2012. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment