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Bill L.  

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  • Non-Farm Payrolls at Best Levels Since Lehman Bankruptcy [View article]
    I don't even know why people look at Government numbers anymore. I don't know how you can call them anything other than a flat out lie; if more laid off workers are becoming permanently discouraged than workers who have just been laid off, then unemployment rate drops. How does that make sense? Besides every month, the previous number gets revised lower anyway.
    Sep 4, 2009. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Living Up to Expectations [View article]
    Matt, what did you think about the dollar today? The dollar was creeping up all day despite a good performance in negatively correlated dollar assets.
    Sep 3, 2009. 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Thursday, Sept. 3: Market Modesty [View article]
    "A weakening dollar and continued fund buying pushed up prices. Gold for December delivery gained $19.20, or 2%, to $997.70 an ounce."

    I was actually consistently surprised today watching the dollar index creep upward despite the strong performance of precious metals and stocks. This is the exact opposite behavior from what we have seen the last six months. Not sure what it means, but one thing is for sure, someone is buying the dollar...
    Sep 3, 2009. 04:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A final-hour push lifted stock indexes to new session highs at the close, ahead of the morning's jobs data. The Dow +0.7% (+63.56) to 9344.23. S&P 500 +0.9% (+8.47) to 1003.22. Nasdaq +0.8% (+16.13) to 1983.20. Crude +0.2% to $68.18. Gold +1.6% to $994.20.  [View news story]
    I would note that the dollar edged up despite the positive close in stocks, and the generally positive day for precious metals. A very interesting counter trend move, as this is the exact opposite behavior from what we have seen over the last six months. Note sure what to make of it now, but someone is buying the dollar...
    Sep 3, 2009. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scary Drop in Velocity of Money: Is Deflation Knocking? [View article]
    Deflation is definitely knocking... People have a misconception regarding the feds actions and its effect on the dollar. If the Fed increases credit it is only inflationary if it trickles down and the consumers want to borrow it. That looks far off to me.

    As a technician I think the dollar index is showing signs of basing. The extreme bearish sentiment in the dollar is now equal to the bearish sentiment of stocks on march 9, when the market bottomed... Prerequisite levels for a huge reversal.
    Sep 3, 2009. 01:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
    David, question for you, what odds do you give that there was no real mystery behind the lack of volume in this rally and it has been just a bear market rally? -much like the 1930's recover.
    Sep 3, 2009. 10:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ahead of the global finance meetings this weekend, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says it's "too early" for exit strategies and globally coordinated stimulus is still needed, to avoid the mistakes of past recessions. Among other goals, Geithner hopes the nations can come together on banking capital requirements.  [View news story]
    Here! Here! Time to make all new mistakes!
    History is very mixed on whether fiscal and monetary policy can really combat recessions effectively. My gut tells me in many instances, the economy simply heals on it own when it is ready. In this case, this will be over when the loans that are worth nothing have been marked to zero and not before.

    Tampering with interest rates and money supply in the past have been short term fixes and in almost all case have been shown to be a root cause of the next bubble. These unprecedented actions take by the Fed and Treasury will undoubtedly have unprecedented consequences down the road...
    Sep 2, 2009. 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs data are a lagging indicator by nature. The problem is that people are reasoning by analogy; on average the rate of jobs losses peak before clear indications of growth, therefore, buy stocks before the economy picks up. The problem with this is true... ON AVERAGE.

    If you look at each recession, there are several times where this is not true. Furthermore, if you look at the instances where this is not true, it is always the deeper, more prolonged recessions. For instance in the Great Depression and the post WWII recession, the stock market did not fully bottom until the economy had been growing clearly for several months; people waiting for real growth not second derivative improvements.

    People are rightfully skeptical of second derivative improvements because history shows us that the worse the recession, the less reliable lagging indicators such as a second derivative improvement in the rate of job losses are. Not saying don't look at it, but I would have a different weighting on it. Don't take what they say on CNBC as Dogma.
    Sep 2, 2009. 08:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Wednesday, September 2: Slide Stretches to Day 4 [View article]
    (+) Las Vegas Sands (LVS) gets upgrade, secures capital through exchangeable bond sale.

    -Sheldon Adelson lost more money than anyone on the planet during this bear market, something like 36.5 Billion or so, and he's still trying to get even more loans to keep expanding, and get deeper and deeper into debt. Upgrade all you like, where were you when the stock was a dollar.
    Sep 2, 2009. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect a Selloff for Brocade [View article]
    Brocade appears to be finding support here, and has been able to fight off the drag of a negative market. Taking a wait and see approach but I'll be watching more carefully. Ultimately I expect BRCD to roll over with the market. But one day at a time.
    Sep 2, 2009. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Time to Go Contrarian [View article]
    I would point you towards the investors intelligence survey, or the daily sentiment index. Both are excellent sentiment gauges.


    On Sep 02 10:32 AM Albert Ling wrote:

    > You are wrong if you think consensus is bullish. I've been reading
    > many investing forums/blogs and every single post is bearish.
    Sep 2, 2009. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Tudor Jones and macro funds are placing their economic bets, and they're against Goldman Sachs (GS) and its predictions that the recovery is under way. Clarium's Kevin Harrington: "This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later."  [View news story]
    If anyone knows who this guy is, you wouldn't be saying things like this. Look up his market wizard interview, look at his approach, and his brilliant career. Instead of trivializing someone so brilliant, instead I would perk my ears up and try and absorbs absolutely as much wisdom as possible from him.


    Let's
    > see if anybody knows who Paul Tudor Jones is in a year.
    Sep 2, 2009. 12:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Tudor Jones and macro funds are placing their economic bets, and they're against Goldman Sachs (GS) and its predictions that the recovery is under way. Clarium's Kevin Harrington: "This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later."  [View news story]
    I don't know... Abby Joseph Cohen has been wrong at every major turn for three years while Tudor has been calling major turns since his famous triple from calling the '87 crash, nailing it literally down to the hour.

    Don't confuse Goldman's market making/front running business with their long term recommendations. Tudor has had a fantastic track record of calling major turns in the market and is an excellent contrarian investor. Goldman Sach's analysts haven't done much in the last three years except becoming great contrarian indicators themselves, upgrading just as things were about to fall apart and vice versa.

    On Sep 01 06:37 PM Tack wrote:

    > Betting against Goldman Sachs. This should be fun to watch. Let's
    > see if anybody knows who Paul Tudor Jones is in a year.
    Sep 2, 2009. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: The End Is Beginning [View article]
    Everyone on CNBC was looking for an excuse for why this rally failed today. ISM, Ford, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera's hair wasn't perfect, etc.

    All you have to do is look at what the dollar is doing. The dollar is oversold, and stocks are overbought. End of story.
    Sep 1, 2009. 04:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Tuesday, September 1: Third Day of Pullback [View article]
    Also note the very bearish breadth and large downside volume... Not much is out there to convince me one should be owning stocks right now. Buy low, sell high... This seems relatively high.
    Sep 1, 2009. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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