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Bill L.

 
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  • Wednesday Morning, November 28, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Trading out of boredom... be careful.

    -Bill
    Nov 30 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Morning, November 28, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Not much has changed from this morning's update other than 1) some indicators such as the McClellan became even more overbought 2) I became closer to getting stopped out. But that's what stops are for. To stop small losses from becoming big losses.

    This is an interesting juncture to me regarding the longer term. So we had a pretty good trade on both the down side and the up side. But I tend to find that the main trend is the side that goes further than you would expect it to go. So if we hold here for the next few days, the indicators settle, and we start moving higher, I would expect new highs in the indices. If the previously successful long trade we just enjoyed gets erased, then watch out. The Bernake put may have just expired.

    Good hunting out there,
    -Bill L.
    Nov 28 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Fed Beige Book: Does it signal an official downgrade? Bill McBride notes "measured" economic growth compares to "modest" in the last report and "moderate" a few reports back. The FOMC's next meeting - and last before the end of Operation Twist - is set for Dec. 11-12. There's little in the dour report to prevent a replacement program from being announced. Stocks remain higher, the S&P 500 +0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield -3 bps to 1.62%. [View news story]
    Today's Short Term Update: http://seekingalpha.co...

    -Bill L.
    Nov 28 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Nervousness over the fiscal cliff leaves the market subject to headline risk until a deal is done, and stocks stumbled down the stretch today after Harry Reid spoke of "little progress" in the pace of cliff negotiations. But with the S&P 500 near its 100-day MA, today's move could have just as much to do with technicals. NYSE decliners topped advancers 13 to 11. [View news story]
    Today's short term technical update: http://seekingalpha.co...

    -Bill L.
    Nov 28 04:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Taking a small shot at the SPXS here, stopped at 17.75.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 27 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Back at the desk, out of my long completely today, more after the close.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 27 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    The very very short term stuff is nearly overbought now while the 20dma indicator and McClellan are barely at the "halfway" point. In a perfect world the way this resolves is that we have a pullback or small sideways consolidation that recharges the short term indicators, then we have another leg higher pushing the McClellan and 20dma indicator to overbought levels.

    Selling half here are the highs, and holding the rest to see if the trend continues.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 21 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    -December tends to be the best performing month for coffee, averaging over 4%.
    -According to the commodity public opinion poll, coffee is at the lowest point I've seen.
    -Looking over the commitment of traders report, commercial hedgers (the smart money) have been accumulating long positions in coffee for a few weeks now.

    Bill L.
    Nov 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    What I'm looking at this morning:
    The Euro looks like it's rebounding, a good sign for risk assets. The US Dollar looks like it's making a short term rounded top. The 10 and 30 year also look like they're making short term double tops or rounded tops. So we have some risk assets starting to bounce and the safety assets losing momentum. Now we just need stocks to follow.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 15 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Morning, November 15, 2012 - Premarket Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Again, apologies to readers. This week updates won't be as frequent as I'm busy helping my parents as my father is recovering from hip replacement surgery. I appreciate the messages wishing my family well. I'll have at least one more full update this week, most likely a Friday wrap up of the developments this week. I'll be back to the normal schedule Monday.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 15 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +78K to 439K vs. 376K consensus, 361K prior (revised). Continuing claims +171K to 3.33M. [View news story]
    This morning's premarket technical update: http://seekingalpha.co...

    -Bill L.
    Nov 15 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday, November 9, 2012 - Weekly Sentiment Report [View instapost]
    Taking a shot at the long side in after hours. Full update later tonight.

    -Bill L
    Nov 14 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks retreated from early gains after Pres. Obama repeated his insistence that the rich pay more to cut the federal deficit, although no one can tell if it is just posturing before fiscal cliff talks begin next week. Banks rose on reports that Basel III rules will be delayed. Crude oil climbed 1.2% to $86.07; 10-year Treasury yields fell to 1.613%. NYSE gainers and losers finished nearly even. [View news story]
    If it shows up on you're P&L, it's real.
    Nov 10 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday, November 9, 2012 - Weekly Sentiment Report [View instapost]
    A small request to regular readers, please help spread the word about my blog. My near term goal is to get into the top ten instablogers. Thanks in advance, and have a good weekend.

    -Bill L.
    Nov 10 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks retreated from early gains after Pres. Obama repeated his insistence that the rich pay more to cut the federal deficit, although no one can tell if it is just posturing before fiscal cliff talks begin next week. Banks rose on reports that Basel III rules will be delayed. Crude oil climbed 1.2% to $86.07; 10-year Treasury yields fell to 1.613%. NYSE gainers and losers finished nearly even. [View news story]
    This week's sentiment update: http://bit.ly/QvqCYa

    -Bill L.
    Nov 10 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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