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Bill L.  

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  • Tuesday Morning, October 9, 2012 - Short Term Update  [View instapost]
    As I stated, the bears had the ball but were unable to move it down the field, and it looks like the bulls have an interception. How far the bulls can move the ball will be important to gauging whether or not this is a top or yet another resting point before moving higher.

    On an intraday chart the S&P dipped below the rising trend channel originating from the June 4th lows. This could be the hint that bulls are finally starting to lose momentum. How far back into the channel prices move will most likely convey whether the break down is a taste of things to come of a false signal. The 10/5 highs are the next level I'm watching, if the market get's technically overbought but can't reach that price level, that will be a good signal the market is starting to trend lower.

    There are some dark clouds on the horizon, but it's important to note though, until bears prove they have some momentum, we are still in an up-trend. Wait for some price levels to break, then fade the retest. Until then assume these corrections are just that.
    Sorry about the infrequent updates, lvl 3 exam is this Saturday. After that I'll be back to my normal schedule.

    -Good hunting,
    Bill L.
    Oct 16, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday Morning, October 9, 2012 - Short Term Update  [View instapost]
    I'm not playing right now because my full attention isn't in the market. That said, short term indicators are not flirting with oversold and the market hasn't yet made progress lower. Bears have the ball, but haven't been able to score... and the bulls may have just gotten an interception.

    Ideally, the market bounces, makes no headway, and we break down below the lower bounds of the trend channel from June 4th. That would definitely get my attention and I would be looking for short setups. The ideal setup I would look for in this case is a break below the channel, a retest of the lower trend line, bulls think the QE3 forever put is kicking in, ( I would short here), then the market tanks.

    -Bill L.
    Oct 11, 2012. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks pulled back in thin trading as the World Bank cut its growth forecast for China and ahead of what many expect will be a weak earnings season. Tech stocks lagged as guidance cuts add pressure to the sector. Crude oil declined in New York, widening its discount to Brent to the most in nearly a year. NYSE decliners led advancers nearly two to one. [View news story]
    Today's "Short Term Technical Update":

    Good hunting,
    -Bill L.
    Oct 9, 2012. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back At The Desk, Wednesday, October 3, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Yes thank you, fixed.
    Oct 4, 2012. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks eked out gains following upbeat news on private-sector jobs and services sector activity, but new evidence of slowing growth in China added to worries about global demand. Energy stocks fell as crude oil tumbled below $89. Treasury yields neared their lowest levels in a month. H-P slumped to nine-year lows after it cut guidance. NYSE decliners led advancers six to five. [View news story]

    Today's short term technical update.
    -Bill L.
    Oct 3, 2012. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks reverse an early tumble following the strong services PMI report. S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 2 basis points to 1.64%. "The general slowdown which began in March showed some reversal in August," reads a sample comment from the survey. [View news story]
    Today's Short Term Technical Update:

    -Bill L.
    Oct 3, 2012. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saturday, September 15, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Another note,

    The Transport Index has fallen from the zone of resistance to the zone of support, if it falls through this level, this will most likely foreshadow the cracking of the main indexes.

    -Bill L.
    Sep 21, 2012. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saturday, September 15, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    Hello Everyone,

    I'm still away from the desk this week visiting my sister and my new niece. I'll be back most likely early next week.

    A quick update: thus far the "decline" has more or less just been a sideways move that is relieving the overbought pressure that has built up in the technical indicators I watch. It could possibly accelerate... but what I think is more likely is the scenario I mentioned in Saturday's update. I think the market is pulling back setting up the stage for a lower powered final push higher that produces many visible divergence. It may not even break the previous highs. We'll see what happens.

    Some other notable notables: Sentimentraders proprietary "smart money-dumb money" spread is the widest it's been since April as the market was about to correct from 1420 to 1275 over the next two months.

    -Bill L.
    Sep 21, 2012. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saturday, September 15, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    It's one of the reasons I think we're in trouble when the house of cards collapses again. The Fed has really turned everyone into a "risk on - risk off" trader. Extremes that I would generally expect to see a few times I year I've seen several times a month. Ever since the mid 90's the market has looked like just liquidity gushes, and collapses.

    If the 17 year cycle peaked in 2000... well... we still have several more years before the market normalizes.

    -Bill L.
    Sep 16, 2012. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saturday, September 15, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    For more on sentiment:

    Measures of sentiment haven't changed much from my last update, though Commercial hedgers have increase their net short positions in equity indexes, and increased their net long position VIX futures. Short Interest was also updated this week and has unsurprisingly fallen across the board. The put/call ratio is back at optimistic extremes.

    -Bill L.
    Sep 15, 2012. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks continued their ascent following yesterday's QE news, but some of their gains ebbed away after the release of ugly industrial production data and tepid retail sales, plus a reminder from Egan-Jones of the precarious state of U.S. finances. Treasury prices tumbled, pushing up 10-year yields by the most since March. NYSE gainers led losers two to one. [View news story]
    Today's Short Term Technical Update:

    Have a good weekend,
    Bill L.
    Sep 15, 2012. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks clung to small gains after a strong open, as investors settled into a holding pattern ahead of Bernanke's announcement, but "if he doesn’t come through with another round of QE, it’s going to be a big disappointment." Apple closed near its highs of the day after the iPhone 5 launch was in-line with previews. NYSE advancers topped decliners three to two. [View news story]
    Today's short term update:

    -Bill L.
    Sep 13, 2012. 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Hated Rally In History? [View article]
    NAAIM updated, VIX updated:

    -Bill L.
    Sep 4, 2012. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday, September 3, 2012 - Short Term Update [View instapost]
    I don't think so. I find that along with the daily close you need to be looking at a moving average to smooth out the McClellan. I also apply standard deviation to put into perspective how extreme a reading really is, and in my opinion there have been no extreme oversold readings in the last several days. -100 on the McClellan is hardly oversold. The Nasdaq McClellan looks different as well.

    Sideways periods are very common , and as I've been mentioning, I do expect volatility to rise from here. The support/resistance areas I highlighted last week have both had several touches. Meaning there are more and more entrenched positions at those levels. The longer we stay in the sideways move, the bigger the breakout, because more bulls (or bears) will be trapped in the wrong positioning.
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Target Hit, Lowering My Stop [View instapost]
    It's no problem, if you have a question, ask away.
    Sep 1, 2012. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment