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Bill Maurer

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  • First Solar: Now Comes The Hard Part [View article]
    Huge amount of losses last year though. I've followed First Solar since then as well, and I've been a fan. However, this is a tough industry, and when you go from $317 to $11 then back to $56, you have to be careful. They were aggressive in guidance, now they have to back it up.
    Jun 19 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Pleasant Upside If UGG Delivers [View article]
    Deckers has reduced prices, and that's why they are expanding to get away from just UGGs. Sanuk is doing well, and they also have Teva. A lot of competitors products are not as high quality, as Deckers sets the bar there. It is a luxury brand, but there is a market for that.

    Short interest is high, but well below where it was. Also, the business is very profitable, kicking off a lot of cash. That cash allows them to expand by buying other brands (Sanuk was one) and buying back stock.

    I have been one of the most bearish out there on Deckers over the past 18 months. However, I wrote this article to show the potential the company and stock have should they have a solid 2013.
    Jun 19 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Now Comes The Hard Part [View article]
    For #1 - Extra debt or credit line usage carries interest, and debt eventually has to be paid back, in a sense. Equity doesn't.

    For #2 - I don't necessarily think they are saying the stock has peaked, but like TSLA, using advantage of a huge rally to get some extra cash.
    Jun 19 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Now Comes The Hard Part [View article]
    The point is that the company has been really aggressive in setting goals for this year, which sent the stock massively higher. At that point, they then sold stock, while they already had a decent cash position. Now they have to prove that the results are good, because if not, the stock will tank, and with nearly 10 million extra shares, dilution kills plus short sellers can feast.
    Jun 19 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Now Comes The Hard Part [View article]
    Having a little extra cash is never a bad thing - can use it for more production and facilities so they can stop having to subcontract. I know they have more production coming online in the next year or so, but will it be enough?
    Jun 19 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Great, so when the MacBook Air generates $20 billion in quarterly revenues for Apple, let me know. Until then, it's a minor product.
    Jun 18 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    1. It's a standard disclosure. Don't see why it is such a big deal.

    2. I like to provide a different perspective on Apple, and my readers love my Apple articles.

    3. I'm trying to analyze a stock, not sell you an investment.

    4. I don't have an unreasonable price target on Apple.
    Jun 18 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    There was a rumor even for a $99 iPad mini. I don't think that will be the case, but I also do expect a cheaper version, maybe $299 or $279. I don't know if they'd want to go as low as $249 on this model, maybe the third version.
    Jun 18 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Couple points on IBM:

    Much lower market cap and sales. IBM also has decent earnings growth, primarily from the buyback. We'll see if Apple's buyback turns things, but this year there will be a drop.
    Jun 18 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Yahoo usually just adds 3 months from the prior date, which was April 23rd. My expectation is the 23rd or 24th, but it has not been confirmed yet.
    Jun 18 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Couple of points on the valuation:

    Apple is a large company. These types of names (AAPL, MSFT, INTC, CSCO) usually get lower P/E values.

    The market is also discounting the stock a little for two things this year, the drop in gross margins and subsequently, EPS.

    Additionally, the growth isn't what it used to be, and the law of large numbers hurts at this point. They could increase revenues by $20 billion a year, but that's a much lower percentage on $155 billion or so than it is on $75 billion, for instance.
    Jun 18 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Over three years, the buyback will be significant. For the next quarter or two, impact won't be as much as you might think.
    Jun 18 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Phase 2A Is Complete [View article]
    Until I see it on Apple's website or see a formal press release, the date is up in the air.
    Jun 18 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Dividend Raise Debate: 2013 Edition [View article]
    The raise will be announced in September, for the December payment.
    Jun 18 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Dividend Raise Debate: 2013 Edition [View article]
    Will be doing a similar Intel article in the coming weeks.
    Jun 17 09:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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