How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
Good article. I had my own GMCR/SODA preview out this morning.
Definitely speaking, last quarter's post-earnings fall was due to guidance. Analysts had been expecting 20.2% revenue growth and they guided to a range of 14-18%. Since the stock had gone from 15 to 48, expectations were high, so a pullback was needed. Also, the fact that they did not buy back any stock after the Q4 call was a bit disappointing. They still had $325 million left, but the stock is now at almost 60 when they could have bought back at 30-35 or 40 even.
Yes, some of the cash flow numbers were a bit lofty because of inventory and accounts payable changes. We might start to see that reverse a little this quarter.
All in all, I think they beat slightly on revenues but a bit more impressive beat on earnings. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of last quarter though, especially if we rally into earnings. What if we are at $63 by Wednesday afternoon?
Also, when it comes to short interest, I don't think the true key is the percentage of shares short. While it is a high number, there will always be doubters for this name. The more important number in my opinion is days to cover. When DTC gets to 9, 10, 11, or higher, that's when you start to see these 15%, 20%, or greater moves in the stock.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
There were some leaks about a secondary this morning, but since it was via Twitter that I saw, not exactly a given.
Shareholders are already being further diluted each quarter, so a secondary is an interesting idea. With roughly 60 million fully diluted shares, it would take almost 5 million shares to raise $1 billion. You're talking about roughly 8% dilution in that case.
Also, in regards to a secondary, what does Icahn say?
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
NFLX P/S based on 2013 expected revenues is 2.71. Amazon is 1.56. However, if you take out the DVD segment, NFLX is roughly growing revenues at double the pace of AMZN.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
But like Amazon, people seem to be fine valuing Netflix on P/S, not P/E. Especially when they are intentionally hurting earnings by expanding internationally, P/E is not the greatest metric to use.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Well it only launched a few months ago. There will always be issues early on. Prime's library was terrible when they launched as well, at just about 5,000 titles. Just two years later, they have 38,000 titles.
Shares of Netflix (NFLX -3.3%) hit some turbulence after chatter over a potential secondary offering crops up. There isn't anything definitive out from the company, but with content costs rising and share price up a clean double for the year the move wouldn't shock many analysts. [View news story]
Selling the DVD business would be just as effective.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
But why not sell now while you can get the most value from it? The DVD business is all but dead, so get out while the going is good? Plus, if you sell, maybe you get some of those DVD customers who don't have streaming to switch, further boosting your streaming numbers.
Green Mountain And SodaStream Set To Report [View article]
All depends on when they need to build up inventory as well.
Interesting to note that in the past they were not providing FCF guidance. If you do a search for "free cash flow" in last year's Q1 and Q2 reports, you get 0 finds of it. In this year's Q1 report, you find the phrase there 7 times. Looks like they started giving it in Q3.
Don't forget, they reported a huge FCF number in Q1 this year due to three specific items - the gain on the sale of subsidiary in the past year wasn't a negative to cash flow, they just didn't rebuild inventories as much this year and let them deplete a bit, and accounts payable rose fairly steadily.
Is Facebook Worth The Price Of Admission? [View article]
Always blame the short sellers without knowing the numbers!
Facebook, at the last update, had 35.3 million shares short. The company has a float of 1.46 billion and outstanding shares of 2.42 billion, along with average volume of more than 40 million.
All shorts could cover in less than a day's trading, and the percentage of shares short is extremely low. Blaming this on short sellers is absolutely ridiculous.
Green Mountain And SodaStream Set To Report [View article]
Well Q1 is generally the quarter for free cash flow. They had FCF of $254 million in Q1 this year, and guidance for the whole year was $100 to $150 million.
How To Play The Short Squeeze And When To Cash Out [View article]
Not sure where you got your numbers from, but NFLX short interest at 4/15 was about 13.85% from what we knew then, and 13.61% if you really want to be accurate.
How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
Definitely speaking, last quarter's post-earnings fall was due to guidance. Analysts had been expecting 20.2% revenue growth and they guided to a range of 14-18%. Since the stock had gone from 15 to 48, expectations were high, so a pullback was needed. Also, the fact that they did not buy back any stock after the Q4 call was a bit disappointing. They still had $325 million left, but the stock is now at almost 60 when they could have bought back at 30-35 or 40 even.
Yes, some of the cash flow numbers were a bit lofty because of inventory and accounts payable changes. We might start to see that reverse a little this quarter.
All in all, I think they beat slightly on revenues but a bit more impressive beat on earnings. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of last quarter though, especially if we rally into earnings. What if we are at $63 by Wednesday afternoon?
Also, when it comes to short interest, I don't think the true key is the percentage of shares short. While it is a high number, there will always be doubters for this name. The more important number in my opinion is days to cover. When DTC gets to 9, 10, 11, or higher, that's when you start to see these 15%, 20%, or greater moves in the stock.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Shareholders are already being further diluted each quarter, so a secondary is an interesting idea. With roughly 60 million fully diluted shares, it would take almost 5 million shares to raise $1 billion. You're talking about roughly 8% dilution in that case.
Also, in regards to a secondary, what does Icahn say?
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Don't Jump On The Netflix Bandwagon [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
That was even before Redbox Instant launched fully for a quarter.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Shares of Netflix (NFLX -3.3%) hit some turbulence after chatter over a potential secondary offering crops up. There isn't anything definitive out from the company, but with content costs rising and share price up a clean double for the year the move wouldn't shock many analysts. [View news story]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Green Mountain And SodaStream Set To Report [View article]
Interesting to note that in the past they were not providing FCF guidance. If you do a search for "free cash flow" in last year's Q1 and Q2 reports, you get 0 finds of it. In this year's Q1 report, you find the phrase there 7 times. Looks like they started giving it in Q3.
Don't forget, they reported a huge FCF number in Q1 this year due to three specific items - the gain on the sale of subsidiary in the past year wasn't a negative to cash flow, they just didn't rebuild inventories as much this year and let them deplete a bit, and accounts payable rose fairly steadily.
Is Facebook Worth The Price Of Admission? [View article]
Facebook, at the last update, had 35.3 million shares short. The company has a float of 1.46 billion and outstanding shares of 2.42 billion, along with average volume of more than 40 million.
All shorts could cover in less than a day's trading, and the percentage of shares short is extremely low. Blaming this on short sellers is absolutely ridiculous.
Green Mountain And SodaStream Set To Report [View article]
How To Play The Short Squeeze And When To Cash Out [View article]