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Bill Maurer

 
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  • Google May Be The Most Overrated Stock [View article]
    I said Google is most overrated. But yes, it is overvalued too.

    As for AMZN, I value it on a P/S basis, and it trades for about or less than 2 times sales.
    Jan 9 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google May Be The Most Overrated Stock [View article]
    A 20% drop in Google would barely put this trade into the negative. Additionally, who sees Google falling 20%-25%? That's really the whole point of the article.

    My recommendation is based on Google declining, but probably not well below $1,000 like you suggest.
    Jan 9 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google May Be The Most Overrated Stock [View article]
    Let me make a key point here - I'm not negative on Google the company, or potential the stock in the long, long term. I showed above how there is the potential for solid growth.

    What I am negative on is the opinion that Google is essentially perfect, while other names who are more transparent get held to double standards.
    Jan 9 11:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Hits A Key Dividend Level [View article]
    Well you have a couple of items that really need to be looked at.

    1. Actual earnings versus currency neutral earnings.

    2. Buyback - it will slow down in 2015 probably when the current plan ends. They will still work on buying back shares, but they probably will look to start paying back some debt.

    3. Hopefully, as currencies improve, cash flow will as well, which will allow them to pay more in dividends.
    Jan 9 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Hits A Key Dividend Level [View article]
    1. Downgrades can be reasonable - when they properly discuss fundamentals or something legit with the industry - not just saying you hate the industry.

    2. Business is in transition. New products coming later this year and into 2015.

    3. They are taking out debt with rates of 2%-3% after tax and buying back shares yielding 4% or more, now 4.5%. That works well, and the share count is down by half a billion shares in the past couple of years.
    Jan 9 09:55 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    But Intel is going to those areas only because of what Apple has created there (iPhone, iPad, etc.).

    What Apple launches between 2014-2016 sets up for what Intel will try to chase in 2017-2019 I guess.

    I just think to say that Apple has not created new innovations is kinda degrading a company that's gone from $32 billion to $170 billion in revenues in just 5 years and expected to grow by another $25 billion in the next two. They must be doing something right, and even if it is only expanding current products into new areas (China Mobile this year followed by larger iPads, iPhones, iWatch, iTV eventually).
    Jan 8 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    Well, with "nothing earthshatteringly new", they've done a great job of increasing revenues the past couple of years, with a lot of profits too. Intel hasn't done that.

    Yes, Apple does have new stuff, and more stuff is coming this year.
    Jan 8 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Netflix Become A Short Again? [View article]
    It's not really paper trades, as I did say in those articles to cover at a $20 to $25 profit, and I mentioned via StockTalks times when I though $AMZN shorts should cover.

    As for holding my own positions, If I were short NFLX for instance, I'd have plenty of people saying I'm heavily biased and trying to negatively influence the stock. Don't want to be in that camp.
    Jan 8 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    Intel is completely different from Amazon. I also don't see how this "bean counter perspective" isn't liked. If you're not talking about a company's revenues, gross margins, operating expenses/income, other items and tax rate, dividend and buyback, and capex, what is there really to discuss?

    Also, the company is not really investing that much - a $200 million increase in capex projected next year. They have plenty of cash and they need to use some of it to appease shareholders who have stuck with them despite no dividend raise and a severely reduced buyback.
    Jan 8 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    Apple has plenty ahead of it, and for a three-year period, is growing tremendously. Apple is also buying back a tremendous amount of stock, while Intel is barely getting the share count down anymore.
    Jan 8 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    Market just seems to keep going higher, except for AAPL. Even though there is no reason to do so, I wouldn't be surprised if Intel popped towards $27 into earnings.

    But again, this is a stock that's rallied tremendously since warning on Q4 then warning on 2014. Many stocks would be crushed for that, somehow, Intel isn't.
    Jan 8 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs To Deliver Next Week [View article]
    It's not necessarily a disaster - but as the Investor Day Presentation seemed to guide for 60% - a guide to 59% would essentially be a guide down or take down of the forecast.
    Jan 8 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crocs: Missing The Big Picture [View article]
    But why didn't they then?

    Crocs probably could have gotten $200 million in 5 to 10-year debt for maybe 5-6%, and that interest would have been tax deductable. There also would not have been the overhang of potential dilution if shares are converted.
    Jan 7 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crocs: Missing The Big Picture [View article]
    IBM tried to use some of its foreign cash through a subsidiary a few years ago and the SEC frowned upon it I believe.

    Here's a good article explaining Apple's situation, which is the same but to a larger extent:

    http://onforb.es/1arBY5w
    Jan 7 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Netflix Become A Short Again? [View article]
    Well, I just wish the analyst had waited another day so investors could have taken advantage of my article, shares now down more than $20.
    Jan 7 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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