Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
In fact, as late as the second week of April, the average estimate for Apple earnings in fiscal Q1 was $10.13. Had it not been for those analysts that were obviously too high cutting their estimates right before, Apple would have MISSED again, and that would have really sunk the stock. It'd be around $350 now on headlines like "Apple misses for third quarter out of four".
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
The problem with low-balling, especially the way they did it, is that after fiscal Q2 last year, analysts started putting their estimates way too high on Apple, expecting those 20% or 30% beats (over Apple's guidance).
In the last four quarters, Apple has missed analyst estimates twice, one of which was more than a dollar, and one match quarter (this one).
In that case, Apple's lowballing hurts them even if they beat their own guidance by 20%, because analysts expect too much, and the stock gets crushed.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
But the old policy was 10 times as bad? There were times when Apple came in 60% above its own guidance. You're talking about several dollars of difference there.
And the buyback is fairly easily to calculate. The "average" month should be about 1.75 billion, so you can assume like 3-5 million shares per month, maybe slightly more if you think they want to buy when low.
When you have nearly 950 million diluted shares, if your "estimate" for the end of quarter is off by 1 or 2 million, it doesn't make a huge difference in your EPS figure.
If you take fiscal Q2's diluted share count, and even subtract 5 million shares from that, it would have improved quarterly EPS by 5 whole cents. On $10.09 in earnings, that's not much.
Those who say this makes it hard either don't know Apple's history, or are too lazy to do a few small calculations in my opinion.
So basically, they give you a RANGE to use, which at most will be impacted by 5 or 10 cents due to the buyback.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Your conclusion "Apple's reluctance to share exact EPS guidance for future quarters will leave Wall Street in the dark" makes absolutely no sense.
You just showed above how you can easily calculate a range from this. And on top of this, Apple use to give numbers so low that they would blow them out by 20%, 30%, or more.
This is not "unusual" as you say, and it is better for analysts, NOT worse.
Apple: Complete Reset Of Expectations Could Mark The Bottom [View article]
There are so many disagreeable statements in this article, I don't even know where to start:
"Declining gross margins reflect tough competition and a loss of product innovation leadership."
-Not quite. They sold about 1.48 million more iPads than expected. Product mix hurt. Additionally, they sold some extra iPhone 4s. Would you rather have 43.6 billion in revenues at a 37.5% gm clip, or a 38% gm clip but like 40-42 billion in revenues.
"Even with rampant fears of weak guidance, the company’s projection of $34.5 billion in revenue and 36.5% gross margins were well below the lowest estimates."
-Apparently, you haven't listened to any of the analysts in the two weeks prior to earnings that were all cutting estimates. I've been saying for 2 months that this Q3 guidance would be bad. By the way, the lowest estimate on the street was $33.52 billion, right at the low end of the range, and a number of analysts were within the $2 billion range.
"Making matters worse, the company indicated new products would not be coming until the fall."
-Not exactly news if you've listened to anything people have been saying about Apple the past week or two.
"Apple will probably earn about $38 per share in FY 13, down from $44 in FY 12."
-Given the buyback and a probably launch of something in August/September, I think this is a bit bearish. Even if they launch a new phone in mid September like they did with the 5, it should be enough to get over $7.00 in Q4 EPS. And of they buy back a fair amount of shares...
Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
Split isn't coming to deserve kind of a "premium" label. As I've been saying in recent weeks, the margins have been in a 36% to 38% broad range. That might end up moving down slightly, depending on the quarter's product mix, and what they come up with next.
I'd personally like to see them come up with something new that's a little higher margin, but if they are looking for revenues, a cheap phone will do the trick.
Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
If you had done it right at open under $395, might have been good. Now at $408, not so sure. Depends on time frame you are looking at (weeks, months, etc.)
You can kitchen sink revenues by pushing back launch dates. If Apple launches iPhone whatever with 3 days left in fiscal Q3, it gets like 5 million unit sales. All of those revenues are in Q3, and guidance would be higher. By launching in Q4, the revenues will be then.
Everyone knew this was happening. Kitchen sink Q3 so you can have a good second half of calendar 2013 with multiple product launches. Gross margins down next quarter due to product mix.
Apple Earnings Preview: Playing The Analyst Game [View article]
Depends how you look at it. If you look at the footnotes, Apple reassigned where certain categories are, so there might be some numbers that don't match up right away.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
In the last four quarters, Apple has missed analyst estimates twice, one of which was more than a dollar, and one match quarter (this one).
In that case, Apple's lowballing hurts them even if they beat their own guidance by 20%, because analysts expect too much, and the stock gets crushed.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Analysts HAVE AN EPS NUMBER! They have a realistic range instead of having to guess whether Apple lowballed them by 20%, 30%, 50%, or more!
And on the buyback, every one million shares equals ONE PENNY IN EARNINGS! On earnings per share of $7, $10, or more, that's NOTHING!
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Apple guides to $9.30 in earnings. They come in $13.87. Analysts were expecting $10.08.
Apple guides to $9.25 to $10.25 for EPS. They come in at $10.09. Analysts were expecting $10.07.
So tell me, how is this more difficult?
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
And the buyback is fairly easily to calculate. The "average" month should be about 1.75 billion, so you can assume like 3-5 million shares per month, maybe slightly more if you think they want to buy when low.
When you have nearly 950 million diluted shares, if your "estimate" for the end of quarter is off by 1 or 2 million, it doesn't make a huge difference in your EPS figure.
If you take fiscal Q2's diluted share count, and even subtract 5 million shares from that, it would have improved quarterly EPS by 5 whole cents. On $10.09 in earnings, that's not much.
Those who say this makes it hard either don't know Apple's history, or are too lazy to do a few small calculations in my opinion.
So basically, they give you a RANGE to use, which at most will be impacted by 5 or 10 cents due to the buyback.
How is that difficult...?
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
You just showed above how you can easily calculate a range from this. And on top of this, Apple use to give numbers so low that they would blow them out by 20%, 30%, or more.
This is not "unusual" as you say, and it is better for analysts, NOT worse.
Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
Apple: Complete Reset Of Expectations Could Mark The Bottom [View article]
"Declining gross margins reflect tough competition and a loss of product innovation leadership."
-Not quite. They sold about 1.48 million more iPads than expected. Product mix hurt. Additionally, they sold some extra iPhone 4s. Would you rather have 43.6 billion in revenues at a 37.5% gm clip, or a 38% gm clip but like 40-42 billion in revenues.
"Even with rampant fears of weak guidance, the company’s projection of $34.5 billion in revenue and 36.5% gross margins were well below the lowest estimates."
-Apparently, you haven't listened to any of the analysts in the two weeks prior to earnings that were all cutting estimates. I've been saying for 2 months that this Q3 guidance would be bad. By the way, the lowest estimate on the street was $33.52 billion, right at the low end of the range, and a number of analysts were within the $2 billion range.
"Making matters worse, the company indicated new products would not be coming until the fall."
-Not exactly news if you've listened to anything people have been saying about Apple the past week or two.
"Apple will probably earn about $38 per share in FY 13, down from $44 in FY 12."
-Given the buyback and a probably launch of something in August/September, I think this is a bit bearish. Even if they launch a new phone in mid September like they did with the 5, it should be enough to get over $7.00 in Q4 EPS. And of they buy back a fair amount of shares...
Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
I'd personally like to see them come up with something new that's a little higher margin, but if they are looking for revenues, a cheap phone will do the trick.
Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
Apple said those new products are coming later this year or next year. Until then, they want to buy their shares on the cheap.
Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
Apple Earnings Preview: Playing The Analyst Game [View article]
Apple Earnings Preview: Playing The Analyst Game [View article]