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Bill Maurer
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I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have... More
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  • LULU's not so juicy forecast
    Shares of Canadian apparel maker Lululemon are looking to open down about 5% this morning after its quarterly earnings report. The company did beat on both top and bottom line in its prior quarter, but the guidance for the current quarter was no so rosy. Revenue guidance was towards the lower end of the range, and EPS guidance calls was in line to slightly below estimates. For the full year, guidance was in the range of $930 to $950 million, with current analysts expecting about $942 million. EPS guidance was $1.10 to $1.14 with current estimates at $1.11.

    All in all, this wasn't a terrible report. The company did beat expectations, and the balance sheet has certainly improved in the first 6 months of the year. However, the guidance was a little conservative. This may have more to do with the current global economy rather than their business. The company appears to be in good shape. The weak guidance may bring the stock down a few points, but this could be an attractive entry point. You may even get a few extra points lower if the economy doesn't start to improve over the next year or two.
    Tags: LULU
    Sep 09 9:27 AM | Link | Comment!
  • MCP about to breakout? It's just a trade...
    Ah, the rare earth trade. And yes, I said trade. Everyone seems to love these stocks, but are they really meant for long term investments. Not quite yet. Shares of Molycorp are up over 4% today, getting back to the $58-$59 area where it has run into trouble the past few weeks. Just take a look at the 3-month chart. After that fall in late July and early August, we have bounced back a few times only to get stuck where we currently are.

    This company mines those rare-earth minerals that seem to be in extremely limited supply, or is it extremely great supply? I really don't know. Depends who you listen to. If these minerals are as scarce as some make them out to be, this $5 billion company could be a good long term growth story. You can see here how the earnings appear to be skyrocketing. But I'm not a believer, not yet.

    Molycorp, like all others in this space, is a good trading instrument for now, not a long term investment. Looking at that 3-month chart again, I can see at least a dozen opportunities of 10% moves in short time periods. This stock could breakout soon on its rise back to it's 52-week high near $80, but for now, you are much better off playing it $5 at a time rather than trying to get $20 in one move.
    Tags: MCP
    Sep 08 10:37 AM | Link | Comment!
  • A GMCR play for the coffee drinker
    Everyone loves coffee. Or so it seems. No matter where you go, it seems you can pick up those Green Mountain Coffee K-cups. And now with most summer vacations over and schools back in sessions, you might expect that those K-cups will be flying off the shelves. 

    The company's latest quarter sent shares from $88 to $102, and it now trades around $107. The company's next earnings report should be in late October, so why not find a trade that works between now and then? 

    For those who believe the stock will rise into earnings, but don't want to risk too much capital with such an expensive stock, why not use an options trade? With volatility soaring over recent weeks, options are pricey and that can be advantageous. For instance, you could sell an October $105 put for $8.50 now, which would be profitable as long as the stock remains above $96.50. If the stock stays above $105, you would pocket that $8.50, which would be a nice premium to collect over the next 6 weeks. Ignoring transaction costs, you would pocket $850 per contract. For those of you coffee drinkers, that's like 1400 K-cups.

    Disclaimer: I do not hold a position in GMCR, nor do I intend to initiate one in the next 72 hours.
    Tags: GMCR
    Sep 07 7:08 PM | Link | Comment!
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