J Mintzmyer: DECK is really looking like a good buy now. UGGs growth might be stalling, but stalling around a potential P/E of 5-6 isn't a horrible thing
10/25/12
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John Rayhall: Stocks tend to overshoot up and down. If Uggs are really out of favor then maybe the P/E won't stay low right?
10/26/12
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RycheMykol: Blaming the weather for missing sales is a scapegoat imho. Last year, North Face still had good sales, and they sell winter clothing.
10/26/12
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J Mintzmyer: John- you're right about the P/E maybe not staying low. But I think it's more of a multiple re-adjustment overdone to the downside.
10/26/12
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John Rayhall: They need a new product or some kind of update on the Uggs. I don't really see that many women wearing them like I used to.
10/26/12
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John Rayhall: I see what you're saying J Mint but until they post some kind of stable or good quarter hard to know what the stock is worth right?
10/26/12
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J Mintzmyer: I'd argue that the recent qtr wasn't that 'bad.' Q2 and Q1 were horrendous though. I'm going to watch DECK's Q4 before I decide here.
10/26/12
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J Mintzmyer: If DECK drops below $25 without a significant event (e.g. forecasting a big drop for q4), I think it's an easy buy.
10/26/12
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John Rayhall: I think that under $25 risk reward def gets favorable and the stock would be due for a pop at that point I agree with that
10/26/12
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J Mintzmyer: That's what got me into BODY in the the single digits.
10/27/12
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John Rayhall: I was looking at BODY in the 8s guess it's gone up a bit 10.50 now it's an interesting play . I looked at VRA at 21 same theory.
11/1/12
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J Mintzmyer: Looking over DECK some more- still liking the value at $25, but would rather buy DELL at these multiples!
11/1/12
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J Mintzmyer: Damn guys, I wish I would have pulled $DECK at $30, got too greedy waiting for $25... Hindsight bias ya know!!
12/7/12
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John Rayhall: Ya I was just thinking that today but if it had gone to 18 you would have said the opposite.
12/7/12
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J Mintzmyer: Yes. I've learned on turnaround plays, like $nok and $rimm that you have to really wait. Almost 100% up from last buy, barely even overall.