Seeking Alpha

Bill Shamblin

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Bill Shamblin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Apple Vs. Samsung: Further Evidence On Innovation As A Way Of Living [View article]
    If innovation could be monitored by expenditures on R&D, Microsoft would rule the world.

    I'm surprised someone with your background would be so intellectually lazy.

    You use 2 years to demonstrate a deterioration in Apple's ability to innovate? Between the iPod and iPhone - 7 years, between iPhone and iPad - 3 years. So your 2 year demonstration shows what?

    During the years of rapid growth for Apple, they continued to spend a lower percentage of revenue on R&D vs. their competition - likely due to their focus on fewer categories and product models.

    What exactly do you mean by "leadership"? If Samsung captures more market share, yet Apple receives the majority of the market's profits (which is the current case). Is Samsung really the leader?

    Yes, Samsung is gaining marketshare, in large part because the company is willing to accept razor thin margins on their low end phones. For Samsung, given their vertical integration, this makes complete sense. For Apple, it doesn't. (Take a look at how Apple competes in personal computers - they have demonstrated for years that they will sacrifice market share for margins).

    Is Apple's share decline a result of failure to innovate? Who knows at this point? I suspect, current decline is drive by market uncertainty: Can Tim Cook lead Apple? Are margin declines driven by new product mix, ex. iPad Mini, or are they systemic?

    Finally, making investment suggestions based on this analysis, in my opinion, is borderline irresponsible.
    Jan 24 10:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Numbers Say: Expect An iPhone Blowout [View article]
    Verizon share has been consistent for the past 6 quarters and the point I was making, based on the efforts to push international distribution, a reasonable assumption is more sales globally. This is certainly a guessing game (until tomorrow) but one of the points I was trying to make is using these numbers to get a "ballpark" makes more sense than how the market responded to the screen production cut rumors coming out of asia.
    Yes we have to wait and see, but as an investor, I try to find whatever data is available to better understand my risks.
    Jan 22 02:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Market Doubt Unleash Apple's Cash Reserves? [View article]
    I appreciate your feedback but perhaps next time you could share some facts with your opinions?
    Jan 16 05:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iOS 7: Hey Android, Copy This! [View article]
    Maxx - thanks for the post, but I disagree. I think a better analogy is the difference between TV and HD TV - same content but significantly different user experience.
    Jul 23 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iOS 7: Hey Android, Copy This! [View article]
    The TV analogy was concerning the experience - also, hardware is a huge part of iOS 7. OEM's have demonstrated 3D-ish experiences, but no OEM has developed a dynamic OS.
    Jul 23 01:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
    No, that's not what I'm saying. My point is that when you are competing on a common platform (ex. MS Windows), there is ALWAYS an OEM that choses to compete on price. (Generally, because they don't have the design chops.). While Samsung does not appear to be doing this - other Android OEMs are, hence the comment about the "race to the bottom".

    Do you have any facts that indicate that Android is "more stable". From what I've seen it is fragmented platform (less that 30% of Android machines run the latest version of Jellybean, launched in July). In addition, the vast majority of malware in mobile is being hosted on Android.

    If Android was truly "better", we suspect we would see more premium priced Android phones.
    May 12 01:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words - I'm pulling the data from other published articles.
    May 12 08:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    Yes, you could print out every part of an automobile, but the time per part would be astronomically high.

    What I've notice about most DDD bulls is they have no concept of the time entailed in printing. Here's a clue: A three inch figurine takes several hours.

    3D printing is appropriate for complex, low volume applications, examples: dental crowns, hearing aids, prosthetics.
    Mar 8 08:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
    Great insight. Now stop picking your nose and go out and play.
    Mar 8 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Apple Is Apple [View article]
    Definition of 'Law Of Large Numbers'
    In statistical terms, a rule that assumes that as the number of samples increases, the average of these samples is likely to reach the mean of the whole population.

    When relating this concept to finance, it suggests that as a company grows, its chances of sustaining a large percentage in growth diminish. This is because as a company continues to expand, it must grow more and more just to maintain a constant percentage of growth.

    Ok, let's all move on...
    Jan 31 05:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Numbers Say: Expect An iPhone Blowout [View article]
    Bill, An excellent point at the same time, I think it's telling that Apple appears to have been able to overcome supply restraints, based on US market share and the adherence to their 100 country rollout.
    Jan 22 02:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths Of Apple's iPhone Market Share [View article]
    Ponder this - Samsung smartphone profits are up and profits are down. That's the problem of an overbalanced focus on marketshare.

    Also, iPhone sales are up - they are not growing as quickly as the rest of the market - which is being fueled by sub $99 smartphones in emerging markets. That is not the market in which iPhone competes.

    http://bit.ly/VehOcW

    Finally, the iPhone remains the aspirational brand in emerging markets - as a result Apple continues to "skim" the high margin sales across markets.

    http://bit.ly/VehP0t:
    Jun 24 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Inc.'s Slumping Unit Profits Spell Trouble [View article]
    Here's another thought - the lower unit profit indicate the potential for mid-tier products iPad mini, iPhone 4. If Apple is able to get margins in line (example, move to plastic case for anticipated iPhone "Lite").

    My opinion - without factoring in revenues, mix and margins into this analysis it's really tough to come to a conclusion. Bill
    Jul 24 08:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iOS 7: Hey Android, Copy This! [View article]
    Sell a hell of a lot of iPhones :)

    Good luck w/ NOK, B.
    Jul 23 06:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
    Fair share is a simple, straightforward concept - if I have a 10% market share for a product the expectation is that I have (at least) 10% share of market profits.

    Fair Share Profit Index Calculation

    A fair share profit index is calculated by dividing profit share by market share, then multiplying by 100.

    Fair share profit index = (%profit share/%market share) * 100

    Ex. From the previous example, the company Q's fair share profit index would be calculated as: (0.10/0.90)*100 = 11.1

    The value of the fair share profit index is it measures a company's pricing power and profitability against the overall market.

    How to interpret the results:

    Fair Share Index <100: Company profit share is lower than its market share. Every percent increase in market share brings in less than a point share of market profit. The company is likely competing primarily on price. The company has not been able to differentiate its product in the market.

    A Fair Share Index = 100: Company profit share and market share are equal - the company is earning its "fair share" of market profit. i.e. Every point increase in company market share equates to a point increase in market share of profits.

    A Fair Share Index > 100: Company profit share exceeds its market share. The company's product is differentiated and has some level of pricing power in the market. Every point in market share brings in more than a point in market share of profits.
    May 13 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
108 Comments
241 Likes