Kroger's Strategic Advantage Over Whole Foods Market And The Fresh Market [View article]
No mention of KR's nearly $9 billion in debt. WFM/TFM are expanding rapidly while keeping pristine balance sheets..You cannot talk valuation without noting the drag on KR due to a shaky balance sheet. faulty analysis.
Workday: Buy Into This IPO For The Long-Term Growth [View article]
At $50, an $8+ billion dollar market cap,,,or around 31 X's 2012 revenues,,,,for a software company. One of silliest initial day one valuations I've seen in quite awhile. This only works in 1999 math. give me AMBA at $6 over WDAY at $50. You don't ever pay 31 X's current annual revenues for a software company ever.
Phil, go back and check,,,,they are planning on borrowing substantial amounts for expansion capex which will add to debt levels...and much of that expansion capex will be on their southern system which has seen lower volumes here in 2012. Again, I'm long here(moved up stop to new low), but this to me looks cobbled together to take advantage of the current environment/desire for these things...but not one of the stronger ones I've seen. Been analyzing these things and trading them for 13+ years now.
Phil, I added some today as well although I look at this one as a lower quality natty gas midstream play. cash flows are not going to be sufficient to cover capex/distribution so look for debt levels to climb...also CHK has cut drilling which has resulted in lower volumes through SMLP's southern system. these have been working though, so I'm long with stop on pricing break....but not in love with this one, definitely not an RRMS which I did love on ipo....to me the risk/reward on most of these here is getting riskier.
Playing IPOs For Future Gains: Which Recent IPOs To Buy [View article]
Very easy to game low priced ipos...if they break pricing, stop out that simple. wait until they have a trading day in which they do not make a new low and, if you like, can add back with a stop on that prior low...or just wait until a close above pricing.,..with ipos, always always and always stop out on a new low and do not ever consider buying new lows with ipos. ever ever and ever. you can buy new highs, you cannot buy new lows with ipos. that one simple rule would save people an awful lot of money if they were just disciplined enough to stick to it.
A number of pricing 'gifts' in the last month or so, NTI/GMED/PFMT three easy buys early on slashed pricing ranges...still long all three, although have traded out of a chunk of NTI 18+. post all trades on my site forum fwiw. no longer participate in SA with pieces.
4 New Issues Every Growth Investor Should Own [View article]
NGVC - Post-ipo there is minimal debt, they've paid nearly all of it off on ipo. $0.50 cents per share cash. Have $0.58 for 9/30/13 EPS, my estimates. Long NGVC like it quite a bit. Same with other three you mentioned, all four good looking ipos.
Watch Out 'Below' For This Recent IPO [View article]
'additionally, we see that net income only marginally increased over the same time period from 2009 to 2011. With net income of $11.7 million in 2009 and $16.1 million in 2011, income growth averaged a mere 19% over the last 2 years.'
Again, faulty analysis. you need to look at operating income as 2009 net income saw a chunk of that coming from a net tax gain. Either compare apples to apples on operating incomes or you need to plug in a consistent tax rate annually, one or the other.
2009 operating income was $6.8 million, 2010 was $11.8 million and 2011 was $26.2 million. That is an increase of 145% annually from 2009, not a 'mere 19%. Slight difference eh.
I do this professionally, dig into ipo SEC filings. fwiw my bottom line EPS estimates for FIVE(plugging in full taxes for each year) are $0.45 for 2012 and $0.65 for 2013.
....and feel free to take those estimates with as much a grain of salt as you should take this short biased article full of holes and incorrect comparables.
Watch Out 'Below' For This Recent IPO [View article]
Valuation is a bit stretched here at $30, but not obscenely valued at all at 2 1/2 X's 2013 revenues(my estimates). Pricey yes, but this one has a great chance at being a long term huge winner(unlike GRPN which was an obvious dog)....fwiw I sold the close Friday near $30 from low $25's entry day one as I posted on my site(post all buys and sells there). This is one of the better looking ipos of past few years. I wouldn't be a buyer here at $30 fwiw, but not obscenely valued there either. I trade ipos in the aftermarket for a living and have for 13 years, very few can say that. Didn't touch FB or GRPN long(and wouldn't now either), FIVE though I love lower and on pullbacks...this is a rock solid ipo with a very good business plan. They'll need to execute obviously but one can say that about any company.
Rose Rock Midstream IPO: Solid Deal In An 'Under The Radar' Sector [View article]
Yes, they are in a very good capital position spot to grow yield. Parent company is in a good spot too balance sheet wise, both entities more favorably structured for holders than the 2007 ipo of these assets as SGLP. Am long RRMS.
the salt facility is on NRGY's books not NRGM's. has nothing at all to do with NRGM at this point and would only be a dropdown acquisition if it was greenlit as NRGY would use NRGM's stronger balance sheet to fund the transition from salt facility to natty has/ngl storage.
actually NRGY does have dropdowns for NRMG: 38.4 Bcf storage facility in TX; a salt production business that will be converted into natural gas/NGL storage capacity; a west coast NGL business located in CA.
Dividend Impetus To Buy Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust [View article]
In my opinion these three recent 'growth Trusts SDT/PER/CHKR are all 5-10 year plays not 20 years. My job is to make money in the market and there is never anything wrong with timing a sale instead of holding forever. Even though there is a finite end date, this isn't a bond with a steady even payout.
I believe there is an excellent chance that the unit prices on all three remain rather stable over the next 5 years or so while the distributions are large. The overall payout should CHK perform(and their track record is a good one) will be in the $35+ range over 20 years. A big chunk of that comes in the next 5-6 years.
I would expect the unit prices to begin their fall to the eventual near zero market by year 10 or so reaching near there by year 20.
The analysis above of the smallish return is including the back 1/2 years when production will fall steadily and unit price most likely along with it. To me this is 5-10 year play, not a 20 year play and one in which timing the exit will be crucial.
I'm long both PER/CHKR and am looking forward to the hefty distributions in 2012. I'd look at the return over the next 5-6 years when deciding if this is a good investment and not the 20 year timeframe. Can any of say with any certainty what the world will look like in 20 years? I can't.
Sometimes we get lost in the minutiae. I know I look at a lot of IB analyst reports and on them all I toss out anything looking further out than 18 months. Been analyzing and trading ipos for a long time and for 90% of them you simply cannot forecast accurately out more than 18 months, and sometimes that is even a stretch. With this one, think you can be pretty secure 5 years out and the return in that time is going to be pretty hefty and odds are strong the return/unit price performance combined will outperform the overall market...even assuming the unit price remains stable over the next 5 years or so which it most likely will. Again I'd expect the unit prices of all three to begin descent to eventual 0 sometime between year 5 and 10.
think it is a mistake using the long term return(20 year) here to judge the investment instead of the 'shorter' 5 year return.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero - Fight Club.
Digital Domain Media Group IPO: Beware Of Ugly Earnings Statements [View article]
Yes the piece above was written initially for tradingipos.com subscribers pre-ipo when the price range was $10-$12. More interesting at this market cap, halved from the projected market cap this piece was towards. Advised my subscribers pre-ipo to avoid this one $10-$12 range and on actual pricing. $4-$5 it becomes an interesting spec play.
Kroger's Strategic Advantage Over Whole Foods Market And The Fresh Market [View article]
Workday: Buy Into This IPO For The Long-Term Growth [View article]
MLP IPO Review: Summit Midstream Partners, L.P. [View article]
MLP IPO Review: Summit Midstream Partners, L.P. [View article]
Playing IPOs For Future Gains: Which Recent IPOs To Buy [View article]
A number of pricing 'gifts' in the last month or so, NTI/GMED/PFMT three easy buys early on slashed pricing ranges...still long all three, although have traded out of a chunk of NTI 18+. post all trades on my site forum fwiw. no longer participate in SA with pieces.
4 New Issues Every Growth Investor Should Own [View article]
Watch Out 'Below' For This Recent IPO [View article]
Again, faulty analysis. you need to look at operating income as 2009 net income saw a chunk of that coming from a net tax gain. Either compare apples to apples on operating incomes or you need to plug in a consistent tax rate annually, one or the other.
2009 operating income was $6.8 million, 2010 was $11.8 million and 2011 was $26.2 million. That is an increase of 145% annually from 2009, not a 'mere 19%. Slight difference eh.
I do this professionally, dig into ipo SEC filings. fwiw my bottom line EPS estimates for FIVE(plugging in full taxes for each year) are $0.45 for 2012 and $0.65 for 2013.
....and feel free to take those estimates with as much a grain of salt as you should take this short biased article full of holes and incorrect comparables.
Watch Out 'Below' For This Recent IPO [View article]
Watch Out 'Below' For This Recent IPO [View article]
4 IPOs That Deserve More Attention [View article]
Rose Rock Midstream IPO: Solid Deal In An 'Under The Radar' Sector [View article]
Inergy Midstream IPO Disappoints [View article]
Inergy Midstream IPO Disappoints [View article]
Dividend Impetus To Buy Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust [View article]
I believe there is an excellent chance that the unit prices on all three remain rather stable over the next 5 years or so while the distributions are large. The overall payout should CHK perform(and their track record is a good one) will be in the $35+ range over 20 years. A big chunk of that comes in the next 5-6 years.
I would expect the unit prices to begin their fall to the eventual near zero market by year 10 or so reaching near there by year 20.
The analysis above of the smallish return is including the back 1/2 years when production will fall steadily and unit price most likely along with it. To me this is 5-10 year play, not a 20 year play and one in which timing the exit will be crucial.
I'm long both PER/CHKR and am looking forward to the hefty distributions in 2012. I'd look at the return over the next 5-6 years when deciding if this is a good investment and not the 20 year timeframe. Can any of say with any certainty what the world will look like in 20 years? I can't.
Sometimes we get lost in the minutiae. I know I look at a lot of IB analyst reports and on them all I toss out anything looking further out than 18 months. Been analyzing and trading ipos for a long time and for 90% of them you simply cannot forecast accurately out more than 18 months, and sometimes that is even a stretch. With this one, think you can be pretty secure 5 years out and the return in that time is going to be pretty hefty and odds are strong the return/unit price performance combined will outperform the overall market...even assuming the unit price remains stable over the next 5 years or so which it most likely will. Again I'd expect the unit prices of all three to begin descent to eventual 0 sometime between year 5 and 10.
think it is a mistake using the long term return(20 year) here to judge the investment instead of the 'shorter' 5 year return.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero - Fight Club.
Digital Domain Media Group IPO: Beware Of Ugly Earnings Statements [View article]