Bill Simpson

Bill Simpson
Contributor since: 2006
Company: IPO Trading
actually looks interesting here in 6's.
market cap is $596 million at midrange, not $2 billion. 119.25 shares post ipo, each ADS at $10 equals 2 shares. 59.62 ADS equivalent shares, cap at $10: $596 million.
Melissa you're an idiot....look at all those unlocked shares hitting the tape today...umm, none. there won't be any at this valuation. none.
there is no exposure here to 'oil shale basins'. that makes no sense.
doesn't appear you grasp the securitization biz model..that's the debate here. with the biz model they'll show larger Q losses at this stage the better their quarterly installation growth as they front the '20 year lease' upfront costs.
Thanks for the nice trading opportunity long. keep coming out with stuff like this on ipos please.
must have had too many characters cut off a few tickers. IN should be INCR. ADPT one of my faves over past year should be on there too.
Oh and huge mistake to sell quickly, best gains are made on mispricings that you hold for upside targets, trying to grab 50 cents on day one is a fools errand. you want he big points, not the pennies.
I've made a good living for 16 years buying ipos in the aftermarket, usually day 1. It isn't remotely gambling if you know what you're doing. Pull up a chart of say SEDG and hundreds of others over the years. ipos early have vast potential of mispricing on open, all that is ever mentioned however are the mispricings to the upside and all the 'hot' ipos that drop. PLAY/GLOB/TWOU/INGN/IN... look at adpt chart)/VWR/HQY/PAHC/PRAH etc...I love articles that continue to tell people to not buy ipos until they've 'seasoned'. I've been in this niche doing exactly what this article says not to do for 16 years now. Requires work on the front end on valuation and it requires discipline, but consistently some of the best overall gains in the stock market come from buying ipos early, day 1 or so. I like FTAI currently quite a bit.
Actually very common structure to acquire assets on/around ipo, see it all the time. One reason why you get the yield discount....these types can be very good mid-term plays if they execute. balance sheet is solid for growth as well. execution is key, but potential is there. I'm long some.
INCR won't be public 2 years from now, they'll get bought out. Yo Joe, sector is a play on the huge worldwide growth in pharma/biopharma trials. There is a pretty decent barrier to entry for a startup here, so far different from IT services. INCR will be bought sooner than later, probably somewhere closer to 30 than 20. was a no brainer in teens, way market going may get to reload there again.
Like it as well, expected much better action post ipo as it is in a spot that should be working. Lot of these been tough longs, I like WK as well which just hit a new low Friday. been tough action in 2015 thus far for 2014 ipos. Some good ones at attractive valuations, need better technical action in them though.
With you...using any lockup expiry weakness to build a position in the fund,.
Like it a lot as well...best tech ipo of 2014 imo as far as chance of being long term winner. Wish it would have hit a few points lower though,,,,still may. Very good article.
Got lost with all the biotech ipos..it isn't a biotech. back to back 50% revenue growth in 2012/2013 with expanding gross and operating margins. I like it quite a bit, think it got thrown in with the bio junk.
btw, why are you recommending all these bio ipos? I don't understand that at all, most of them will end up solidly single digits.
cash flows look much better than GAAP losses...still in the red, not nearly as much though.
broke pricing early and reversed. was impressed how it moved back through pricing early and added 20.10 with stop. we shall see.
think it breaks if prices in range fwiw. we shall see.
I loved this at $5-$6...Did get some today,,,$15 or so would just be 1/2 the market cap of PETX and both look awfully similar. Odds are each is much lower down the line, but for now market might play the comparison game and run this one more. We shall see. Definite short term play here, wouldn't want to be around longer term.
Might want to look at that PETX chart Don. That was the 'tell'.
Will be in 20's sooner than later fwiw.
looking at NCFT as it will look post ipo 1)paying off debt; 2)refi the rest well below the current 10% rate(planned mid December 2013 due to covenants) and 3)removing the 2008 related non cash amortization expenses I get 2014 EPS right around $1.61 EPS with a 15% top line growth rate.
key is debt servicing will drop from $25 million a year to $7 million or so in 2014...and you always fold out the amortization charges related to a previous writedown..those are just tax breaks at this point and have zero to do with current operations. covering analysts will remove those when they publish estimates in 25 days,,,,and I think I'm pretty close to where they'll put EPS.
We'll see, but I really like this one here mid 15's. think it is being completely overlooked.
'What we don't mention are the 99% of other IPOs that didn't make you rich.'
Might want to pull up some charts from ipos past few years. dozens upon dozens up 100%+. cste/ngvc/sstk I could go on and on there are many. All were great buys out the door on day one.
would have loved 16 1/2(still may get it, who knows)...I added some today 17.4's. We'll see how it goes,,,would it expect it to trade sluggish for a bit like FISH/WPT and not like OCIP/OCIR. Would like to be pleasantly surprised thoug.
yes, glp is the comparable not ocir/hclp.
Phillip, yes indeed you're correct. Neither have a very strong parent either.
Don, you might want to pull up the charts of OCIP/OCIR...OCIP in particular I believe fair value is $30+. the alternative mlp's are having trouble pricing in range, bringing about pretty good risk/reward buys on the early broken prices. That's when I've been buying this stuff.
the midstreams just aren't giving us enough of a discount these days, it appears the market has finally caught up to the 10+ year open 'secret' that you buy any midstream mlp and you got essentially free 25%+ upside across the board...RRMS was the last best deal there.
As long as you keep an eye on the end market of the variable rate deals, those have been a nice spot with emes and ocip two faves. the refiner mlp's were a trap, as the spreads were at all time highs the Q most of them got jammed out.
been specializing in this sector for a long time, my fund has a number of positions in the group....hoping for below range pricing here and (possibly) a open below there --- that's been the buy spot with this stuff of late.
WNRL in particular I believe opened pretty much fully valued.
You can't look at LEAF on a GAAP basis as they take a writedown each time they sell off a chunk of their legacy real estate business. Those actual losses hit years ago. They should earn about $1.50 on their core business in 2013.
Market cap at $14 is right around $218 million. 15.6 million ADS outstanding fully diluted post ipo. The price is not $70, the ADS will be the only publicly traded shares of this one post-ipo and any shares ever sold need to be converted into ADS first. It Is simply an accounting choice pre ipo. Many US ipos recalculate sharecount pre ipo by converting X shares to Y shares etc...Foreign issuers don't need to do this, they just need to come up with the formula converting shares to ADS if sold down the line.
Price itself is irrelevant, market cap is the only thing that matters...which here at $14 is right around $220 million.
no brainer on low 17's open.
No mention of KR's nearly $9 billion in debt. WFM/TFM are expanding rapidly while keeping pristine balance sheets..You cannot talk valuation without noting the drag on KR due to a shaky balance sheet. faulty analysis.
At $50, an $8+ billion dollar market cap,,,or around 31 X's 2012 revenues,,,,for a software company. One of silliest initial day one valuations I've seen in quite awhile. This only works in 1999 math. give me AMBA at $6 over WDAY at $50. You don't ever pay 31 X's current annual revenues for a software company ever.
Phil, go back and check,,,,they are planning on borrowing substantial amounts for expansion capex which will add to debt levels...and much of that expansion capex will be on their southern system which has seen lower volumes here in 2012. Again, I'm long here(moved up stop to new low), but this to me looks cobbled together to take advantage of the current environment/desire for these things...but not one of the stronger ones I've seen. Been analyzing these things and trading them for 13+ years now.