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Bill Simpson  

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  • Norcraft IPO Needs Remodeling After It Makes Money [View article]
    Will be in 20's sooner than later fwiw.
    Nov 16, 2013. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Norcraft Companies [View article]
    looking at NCFT as it will look post ipo 1)paying off debt; 2)refi the rest well below the current 10% rate(planned mid December 2013 due to covenants) and 3)removing the 2008 related non cash amortization expenses I get 2014 EPS right around $1.61 EPS with a 15% top line growth rate.

    key is debt servicing will drop from $25 million a year to $7 million or so in 2014...and you always fold out the amortization charges related to a previous writedown..those are just tax breaks at this point and have zero to do with current operations. covering analysts will remove those when they publish estimates in 25 days,,,,and I think I'm pretty close to where they'll put EPS.

    We'll see, but I really like this one here mid 15's. think it is being completely overlooked.
    Nov 7, 2013. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TwitterMania #Bubble [View article]
    'What we don't mention are the 99% of other IPOs that didn't make you rich.'

    Might want to pull up some charts from ipos past few years. dozens upon dozens up 100%+. cste/ngvc/sstk I could go on and on there are many. All were great buys out the door on day one.
    Nov 6, 2013. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprague Resources IPO Yields 8+% [View article]
    would have loved 16 1/2(still may get it, who knows)...I added some today 17.4's. We'll see how it goes,,,would it expect it to trade sluggish for a bit like FISH/WPT and not like OCIP/OCIR. Would like to be pleasantly surprised thoug.
    Oct 25, 2013. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Sprague Resources LP [View article]
    yes, glp is the comparable not ocir/hclp.
    Oct 24, 2013. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprague Resources IPO Yields 8+% [View article]
    Phillip, yes indeed you're correct. Neither have a very strong parent either.

    Don, you might want to pull up the charts of OCIP/OCIR...OCIP in particular I believe fair value is $30+. the alternative mlp's are having trouble pricing in range, bringing about pretty good risk/reward buys on the early broken prices. That's when I've been buying this stuff.

    the midstreams just aren't giving us enough of a discount these days, it appears the market has finally caught up to the 10+ year open 'secret' that you buy any midstream mlp and you got essentially free 25%+ upside across the board...RRMS was the last best deal there.

    As long as you keep an eye on the end market of the variable rate deals, those have been a nice spot with emes and ocip two faves. the refiner mlp's were a trap, as the spreads were at all time highs the Q most of them got jammed out.

    been specializing in this sector for a long time, my fund has a number of positions in the group....hoping for below range pricing here and (possibly) a open below there --- that's been the buy spot with this stuff of late.

    WNRL in particular I believe opened pretty much fully valued.
    Oct 23, 2013. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Springleaf: Stay Away From This Consumer Finance Public Offering [View article]
    You can't look at LEAF on a GAAP basis as they take a writedown each time they sell off a chunk of their legacy real estate business. Those actual losses hit years ago. They should earn about $1.50 on their core business in 2013.
    Oct 21, 2013. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Voxeljet IPO Gives Us Exposure To The Rapidly Growing 3D Printing Industry [View article]
    Market cap at $14 is right around $218 million. 15.6 million ADS outstanding fully diluted post ipo. The price is not $70, the ADS will be the only publicly traded shares of this one post-ipo and any shares ever sold need to be converted into ADS first. It Is simply an accounting choice pre ipo. Many US ipos recalculate sharecount pre ipo by converting X shares to Y shares etc...Foreign issuers don't need to do this, they just need to come up with the formula converting shares to ADS if sold down the line.

    Price itself is irrelevant, market cap is the only thing that matters...which here at $14 is right around $220 million.
    Oct 16, 2013. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OCI Partners IPO Offers Us A Super Yield And Growth Potential [View article]
    no brainer on low 17's open.
    Oct 5, 2013. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kroger's Strategic Advantage Over Whole Foods Market And The Fresh Market [View article]
    No mention of KR's nearly $9 billion in debt. WFM/TFM are expanding rapidly while keeping pristine balance sheets..You cannot talk valuation without noting the drag on KR due to a shaky balance sheet. faulty analysis.
    Jan 7, 2013. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday: Buy Into This IPO For The Long-Term Growth [View article]
    At $50, an $8+ billion dollar market cap,,,or around 31 X's 2012 revenues,,,,for a software company. One of silliest initial day one valuations I've seen in quite awhile. This only works in 1999 math. give me AMBA at $6 over WDAY at $50. You don't ever pay 31 X's current annual revenues for a software company ever.
    Oct 12, 2012. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP IPO Review: Summit Midstream Partners, L.P. [View article]
    Phil, go back and check,,,,they are planning on borrowing substantial amounts for expansion capex which will add to debt levels...and much of that expansion capex will be on their southern system which has seen lower volumes here in 2012. Again, I'm long here(moved up stop to new low), but this to me looks cobbled together to take advantage of the current environment/desire for these things...but not one of the stronger ones I've seen. Been analyzing these things and trading them for 13+ years now.
    Oct 2, 2012. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP IPO Review: Summit Midstream Partners, L.P. [View article]
    Phil, I added some today as well although I look at this one as a lower quality natty gas midstream play. cash flows are not going to be sufficient to cover capex/distribution so look for debt levels to climb...also CHK has cut drilling which has resulted in lower volumes through SMLP's southern system. these have been working though, so I'm long with stop on pricing break....but not in love with this one, definitely not an RRMS which I did love on me the risk/reward on most of these here is getting riskier.
    Sep 28, 2012. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing IPOs For Future Gains: Which Recent IPOs To Buy [View article]
    Very easy to game low priced ipos...if they break pricing, stop out that simple. wait until they have a trading day in which they do not make a new low and, if you like, can add back with a stop on that prior low...or just wait until a close above pricing.,..with ipos, always always and always stop out on a new low and do not ever consider buying new lows with ipos. ever ever and ever. you can buy new highs, you cannot buy new lows with ipos. that one simple rule would save people an awful lot of money if they were just disciplined enough to stick to it.

    A number of pricing 'gifts' in the last month or so, NTI/GMED/PFMT three easy buys early on slashed pricing ranges...still long all three, although have traded out of a chunk of NTI 18+. post all trades on my site forum fwiw. no longer participate in SA with pieces.
    Aug 29, 2012. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 New Issues Every Growth Investor Should Own [View article]
    NGVC - Post-ipo there is minimal debt, they've paid nearly all of it off on ipo. $0.50 cents per share cash. Have $0.58 for 9/30/13 EPS, my estimates. Long NGVC like it quite a bit. Same with other three you mentioned, all four good looking ipos.
    Aug 9, 2012. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment