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Bill Simpson

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  • Dividend Impetus To Buy Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust [View article]
    In my opinion these three recent 'growth Trusts SDT/PER/CHKR are all 5-10 year plays not 20 years. My job is to make money in the market and there is never anything wrong with timing a sale instead of holding forever. Even though there is a finite end date, this isn't a bond with a steady even payout.

    I believe there is an excellent chance that the unit prices on all three remain rather stable over the next 5 years or so while the distributions are large. The overall payout should CHK perform(and their track record is a good one) will be in the $35+ range over 20 years. A big chunk of that comes in the next 5-6 years.

    I would expect the unit prices to begin their fall to the eventual near zero market by year 10 or so reaching near there by year 20.

    The analysis above of the smallish return is including the back 1/2 years when production will fall steadily and unit price most likely along with it. To me this is 5-10 year play, not a 20 year play and one in which timing the exit will be crucial.

    I'm long both PER/CHKR and am looking forward to the hefty distributions in 2012. I'd look at the return over the next 5-6 years when deciding if this is a good investment and not the 20 year timeframe. Can any of say with any certainty what the world will look like in 20 years? I can't.

    Sometimes we get lost in the minutiae. I know I look at a lot of IB analyst reports and on them all I toss out anything looking further out than 18 months. Been analyzing and trading ipos for a long time and for 90% of them you simply cannot forecast accurately out more than 18 months, and sometimes that is even a stretch. With this one, think you can be pretty secure 5 years out and the return in that time is going to be pretty hefty and odds are strong the return/unit price performance combined will outperform the overall market...even assuming the unit price remains stable over the next 5 years or so which it most likely will. Again I'd expect the unit prices of all three to begin descent to eventual 0 sometime between year 5 and 10.

    think it is a mistake using the long term return(20 year) here to judge the investment instead of the 'shorter' 5 year return.

    On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero - Fight Club.
    Dec 4 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group IPO: Beware Of Ugly Earnings Statements [View article]
    Yes the piece above was written initially for tradingipos.com subscribers pre-ipo when the price range was $10-$12. More interesting at this market cap, halved from the projected market cap this piece was towards. Advised my subscribers pre-ipo to avoid this one $10-$12 range and on actual pricing. $4-$5 it becomes an interesting spec play.
    Dec 4 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Impetus To Buy Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust [View article]
    chkr - 70%-75% of revenues from NGL's/oil with half of that being hedged...25%-30% of revenues will come from unhedged natural gas production.
    Nov 16 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense IPO: Recommend On Strong First Half FY12 [View article]
    Wanted to add that I'm long INVN here on ipo.
    Nov 16 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash IPO: Favorably Structured, Easy Recommend [View article]
    The only real difference I can see between PER/CHKR compared with SDT/ECT is the latter came out first. There seems to be a supply/demand issue with the units here currently on these high yield energy deals. Too much stock for demand. PER/CHKR will distribute about $6 combined in cash to holders in 2012. If they simply maintain the current unit price through those distributions, they should easily outperform the overall market.

    chkr/per look very attractive here, seems to be a unit supply/demand issue in the sector though. CHKR will distribute roughly what ECT will in 2012, big unit price disparity between the two though.

    I'm long both CHKR/PER....first PER distribution comes this month fwiw.
    Nov 14 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rentech Nitrogen Partners IPO: Fairly Valued [View article]
    Nielfiel...yes a typo there, thank you for correcting.
    Nov 8 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&J Energy Services' IPO: Plenty of Intrigue [View article]
    last in, first out to raise cash at a lot of places which means recent ipos often get rocked during a sell-off....happens often with ipos that come out right before a market fall,,,and this past week was a steep one. I got stopped out of the thing on pricing break.
    Aug 6 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&J Energy Services' IPO: Plenty of Intrigue [View article]
    timing couldn't have been worse for CJES...Since debut a week ago friday the OIH is down 13%...as are many other major indices.
    Aug 6 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Co-IPO Pick of the Week: C&J Energy Services [View article]
    Francis, you are wrong and may want to actually read the fine print. 100% of the company is not up for sale. The shelf had to be filed as part of the contract language in the 2010 private placement. the final prospectus clearly states that directors/sponsorts/execs will not sell any shares until the usual 180 day lock-up. That takes up the bulk of the registered shares in and of itself. A shelf like this happens on ipos a few times each year and often has more to do with share conversions and contract language from placements. 100% of the company is not up for sale, you are incorrect.
    Aug 3 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&J Energy Services' IPO: Plenty of Intrigue [View article]
    I don't include stock options in the sharecount...no doubt over the next few years a number of them will be exercised, at time of ipo though 51.9 million sharecount from page 9 of the final prospectus....if you plug in future potential option dilution yes around 58 million.
    Jul 31 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Files for IPO as Another Tech Bubble Looms [View article]
    'This is a company also burning through a staggering amount of cash'

    Might want to check cash flows and re-write that part.
    Jun 3 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Looks to End a Mixed Week of IPOs on a High Note [View article]
    Like your articles Trent.
    May 27 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex IPO Looks Promising [View article]
    piece is done pre-ipo for subscribers of tradingipos.com. they pay me for these pieces, seekingalpha does not so seekingalpha gets a few pieces after the ipo prices and opens.
    May 26 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex: A Bargain Below $50; Poised to Take on $100 [View article]
    $50 would be about 25 X's my 2011 revenue estimates....I see fair value $30-$50 currently depending on market conditions and animal spirits.
    May 24 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the MLP Sell-Off Over Yet? [View article]
    Very nice article Jens.
    May 18 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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