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Bill Simpson  

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  • 2 Super-Hyped Chinese IPOs [View article]
    Should add that I feel most of the China ipos are of lower quality and/or stretched in valuation in pricing range. BONA today a good example, felt/wrote in my pre-ipo piece I'd be interested at 1/2 the market cap of pricing range...looks like it may be headed that way too!

    We've also seen more than a usual amount of outright fraud in China ipos of past few years...a space in which one needs to tread very very carefully as there is a lot of junk and trapdoors there...I do like DANG however, although I do not own it currently(sold 30 1/2 yesterday) and have no plans on buying unless it pulls back.

    China ipos lately have tended to go down most days...DANG/YOKU trading in a vacuum right now which again has a lot to do with combo of 'hot/'hyped' ipo coming heading into year end. I am definitely not real bullish on China ipos overall.
    Dec 9, 2010. 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Super-Hyped Chinese IPOs [View article]
    Griping does not help one make money. I traded DANG day one, think it ends up a nice longer term winner. YOKU not so much...either way there was a lot of money to be made trading them. As a trader ones job is to look for opportunities to make money in the market and these were definitely two. Yes YOKU at least is insanely overvalued here, but so was NetSuite at end of '07...all three a product of hyped ipo into year end and we've seen it many many times over the past 10-15 years. got to figure out what is going on sometimes, griping doesn't make one money. I do believe DANG has a good chance to be a longer term winner, the metrics are headed that way. Sure right now it is fully valued going out a ways, but that happens sometimes in the market,,,especially for a hot ipo going into year end.
    Dec 9, 2010. 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inphi's IPO: Solid Semi Finds Solutions to the Wireless Bandwidth Bottleneck [View article]
    sold 1/3 today 19 1/2+.
    Dec 9, 2010. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaCube Container Leasing: Picking Up Private Equity Leftovers [View article]
    Nice piece, agree 100% and am long the stock as well....FYI, the preliminary 9/10 quarterly numbers are in the final prospectus. solid Q.
    Nov 10, 2010. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Never been to a gordman's, not in my area. They gave full year guidance yesterday, not too different than my 2010 estimates above, smae ballpark top/bottom. Apparel retail stocks been struggling across the board since April for most part.
    Sep 9, 2010. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Alright, you managed to post without name calling. I have no 'alterego' here. I use my real name and have a website that has been in business analyzing every US ipo for 5 1/2 years now. All of 'em, and trust me there are many I do not like. I was also one of SA's original contributors and have been releasing a few pieces now/again to them for 5 1/2 years now.

    GMAN's past two quarters from page 43 of the final prospectus. I will even leave in the debt servicing charges, which will be gone post-ipo.

    2/1/10(seasonally strongest): $154 M topline revenues, 39% gross margins 4% net margins. Fully diluted(18.7 sharecount) eps of $0.33.

    5/1/10(historically GMAN's weakest revenue Q): $112 M topline revenues, 47% gross margins, 5.7% net margins. Fully diluted(18.7 M sharecount) of $0.34.

    those are the past two Q's for GMAN. If you can get a 60PE off those two quarters, feel free I don't see it though. Key going forward is where GMAN can sustain momentum from the 5/1/10 Q as it was a seasonally 'out of the box' quarter.

    I understand the hatred for private equity firms and I attempt to rarely own a debt laden deal. This is not one of them. Past two quarters have been strong, question going forward is whether Gordman's can sustain that momentum. We'll find out and that will be the key to whether GMAN is a successful public company or isn't.

    I don't make this stuff up, it is right there for anyone to look at in the filings. They've had back to back strong quarters heading into ipo. Can they sustain that momentum?
    Aug 24, 2010. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    No I do not believe GMAN can be successful at sub 4% margins...I expect 2010 margins to be in the 4 1/2% range as noted in piece. In their first Q of fiscal year they did 5.8% net margins once interest expense(which will no exist post-ipo) is rolled out. I don't think that is sustainable either, but their net margins have improved sequentially from 2.2%, to 3.6%, to 4.1% to 5.8% over the past 4 Q's. Since Sun took over they've focused on increasing operating efficiency over new store growth..they do play 6-8 new stores a year going forward.

    Cheaper prices come form not accepting vendor/manufacturer advertising and markdown allowances or return privileges(page 59 of final prospectus).

    Their metrics are trending nicely into ipo, we'll see if they can keep it up...in the first Q of current fiscal year(5/1/10), GMAN earned a fully diluted $0.32 per share. This is not historically their strongest either, the 2/1 quarter would be that. Again I am not sure they can sustain the net margins of that Q going forward and forecast a significantly lower 4.6% net margin for the full fiscal year.

    Under the radar deal thus far, if they put together a few quarters like the 5/1/10 Q, it'll get noticed.

    Price is important, at current prices I find it attractive, but I do not believe GMAN will be a massive success story either as a public company. A move back into original ipo range of $13-$15 would seem reasonable assuming the past 2 quarters performance are not an aberration. We'll have a better idea when they report the 8/1 Q recently completed.
    Aug 23, 2010. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Well I prefer ipos that price below range as I like things cheaper not more expensive. Been trading ipos for a living for over a decade and I much rather would buy say an AMRC(Which I own) at $10 than original $14-$16 range. I look at ipos a lot different than most in that respect.

    GMAN has a net cash balance sheet post-ipo..the debt that was there pre-came from a leveraged buyout...balance sheet looks nice post-ipo though. How exactly can debt prop up operating numbers? It tends to do the reverse and removing the debt takes away quarterly debt servicing charges and improves the bottom line.

    Insiders selling some shares on ipo has little predictive power on how an ipo will perform over the years. Pull up a long term chart of IHS, that was an ipo that had 100% of shares coming from insiders.

    Seems like nothing but negative comments on SA these days, good indicator of where sentiment lies out there.

    GMAN is not a 4 star ipo by any means...they have been improving metrics quarterly for past year, have cash to put to work opening a few new stores and the multiple for what they will earn in Fy '10 is fairly attractive.

    You cannot value this by 2009 numbers as all retailers had a sluggish first half of '09, GMAN had debt on the books in '09 and they've been steadily improving margins/metrics. At $10, it is attractive...they will need to perform of course, but you can say that about any company.
    Aug 23, 2010. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deal Works in the Short Term; Long-Term Is Another Question [View article]
    Stock has already nearly doubled AmercianinCanada, so I would say the stock has gone quite somewhere...at high this morning was up $12 in the aftermarket.

    In the comments section, often many miss the point. The goal in the stock market is to make money, period end of story. This ipo was panned by Gaskins/Cramer and pretty much everyone else that claims to be some sort of expert on ipos. It was obvious to me, the deal would work short term. After that, I do not know...I raised the question marks in the piece above and Tesla certainly has their work cut out for them going forward getting the S Model to market in 2012. Color me skeptical they will meet that aggressive timetable.

    However, the point is simple: there was money to be made on this deal short-term, both on offer and in the aftermarket. That is the only point thus far....the story will play out as it will going forward, but to be blind to an opportunity to make money because you need to be 'right' down the line is shortsighted. Money in the market doesn't care where(or who) it flows, it just does. This deal works short term and it has. It is what it is and it was pretty obvious it was going to work.

    Am I a buyer here near $30? Heck no, I'd be a seller though. it is up nearly 100% from mid-range filing, I'd call that a pretty successful ipo out the gate. As I noted above, at current price the risk certainly looks to outweigh future reward as the play here was on offer or in the teens, not near $30.
    Jun 30, 2010. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deal Works in the Short Term; Long-Term Is Another Question [View article]
    I'd have sold the technology and Roadster as well, instead of attempting to go alone as a auto start-up....we are proven wrong here currently as the thing is now valued close to $3 billion this morning. Knew this one would work short term, we shall see about long term. At $30ish here it would appear to be solidly into 'greater fool, musical chairs' valuation with the coming question marks. I am rooting for them to succeed, hope they do. Too many question marks though to pay up this much right here near $30, reminds me of the ipos of 1999 with this trading action.
    Jun 30, 2010. 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher One Holdings' IPO: Still Plenty of Room for Potential Growth [View article]
    ipocandy, please do not 'hop' on my pieces promoting your site. I do not do that to yours. thanks.
    Jun 23, 2010. 11:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher One Holdings' IPO: Still Plenty of Room for Potential Growth [View article]
    Actually guys, they are excluded from the interchange fee regulation as their bank has less than $10 billion in assets. So much anger out there eh. I am long from 13.35 btw cheers.
    Jun 23, 2010. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynavox IPO: Poised for a Great Future [View article]
    one of best performing ipos in 2010 thus far.
    Jun 10, 2010. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niska Gas Storage Partners IPO: Poor Structure for Public Unit-Holders [View article]
    Opened broken this morning. Recent ipo PNG is much higher quality...although I'd put reasonable upside for PNG short-mid term at $25 so pretty fully valued there too.

    Been looking at these MLP's for years now, NKA is one of the uglier structured I've seen.
    May 12, 2010. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha & Omega Semiconductor IPO: Priced to Sell [View article]
    If you fold out the minority interest and normalize taxes, you are looking at about $1.25 on the bottom line for FY '10.
    'Normalized' taxes should be in the 25% range for awhile as AOSL works off carryforward.

    Revenue run rate increased strongly back 1/2 of 2009 and into first Q of 2010 so not sure how or why that is 'miraculous'.

    Yet another Gaskins plug for his website on someone elses article.
    Apr 29, 2010. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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