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Bill Simpson

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  • FleetCor: Unique and Exciting Deal [View article]
    FLT - $30-$35 is my sell zone if fortunate to see those,,,scaled sells from $30 on up. we'll see, hopefully will get there.
    Dec 20, 2010. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang Makes Round Trip to IPO Spike Price [View article]
    Mark, your ' fund' has gone to your head a tad it appears. you quoted directly from another article posted on the same site, simply give a nod as to where you took that from is all.
    Dec 20, 2010. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang Makes Round Trip to IPO Spike Price [View article]
    right here:
    Dec 17, 2010. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FleetCor: Unique and Exciting Deal [View article]
    No not really....It is the Federal Reserve, not Congress by the way. the Fed can regulate debit card interchange fees. FLT is a charge account operation for fleets, different rules apply to credit as opposed to debit. Plus 1/3 of revenues are outside US and the oil companies(and their retail outlets) are partners with FLT.

    Abstractly, the pressure on fees impacts all of the non-cash payment operations in some fashion, but no this propsed 12 cent debit card swipe fee limit shouldn't directly impact FLT.

    FLT is not in the prepaid card or debit card business. the do fleet accounts in which they front the money for charges(payable monthly usually) in which FLT actually purchases the fuel and makes money on both the customer via transaction/credit charges and the spread between what they charge the customer and what they pay for the fuel from their partner energy companies. When a tranaction occurs, it is not a transfer from customer's account to the retail location, FLT is the one paying the initial transaction. The spend quite a bit annually actually to Mastercard and to merchants in processing and commission fees, unfortunately they do not break out in detail what comes in and out on avg of each transaction.....think the current Fed debit card swipe fee reduction is pretty much a net neutral for them,,,however we'll see going forward if the trend on fee crackdowns spreads and continues. FLT a little different animal though.
    Dec 17, 2010. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang Makes Round Trip to IPO Spike Price [View article]
    Mark, if you are going to lift stuff word for word from my pre-ipo piece, please note that, thanks.

    Lot of the recent 'hot' ipos are valued pretty dearly here,,,,right now the whole lot of them from VRA to DANG to SODA are just momentum plays. the ipos that have worked in 2010 are as expensive right now as ipos have been since 10/07. conversely there are a number of recent deals that have had their prices slashed and still are lagging...been a very divergent ipo market in 2010.
    Dec 17, 2010. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FleetCor: Unique and Exciting Deal [View article]
    This one is sneaky good ipocandy.....think it is a $30+ stock which came at $23. as disclosed above, am still long this one. pretty average week of deals overall, not as high on ISS as most...they priced WD/GCAP attractively, but this is really the only one this week I liked a lot in range. In the same broad space as very successful GDOT/ONE ipos, although no one seemed to be paying any attention to this one pre-ipo...ONE was another of my favorites in 2010.

    good point above about 1099 compliance.
    Dec 16, 2010. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Commerce China Dangdang's IPO: Dominant Market Leader Growing Revenues Strongly [View article]
    They have both pulled back nicely...I am not as much a fan of YOKU as the jury is still out there in my opinion. I've no position in either at the moment, may look to re-enter DANG in this 25-26 range though....the momentum stocks have pulled back sharply past few sessions, so very difficult to know where they headed short term at this point.
    Dec 14, 2010. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bona Film Group: Impressive Market Share in a High Risk Sector [View article]
    The headline they selected for this article is very misleading...If you look at the conclusion my feeling pre-ipo was the pricing range was much too high here. Not a deal I own nor will.
    Dec 14, 2010. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inphi's IPO: Solid Semi Finds Solutions to the Wireless Bandwidth Bottleneck [View article]
    sold 1/3 today 19 1/2+.
    Dec 9, 2010. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaCube Container Leasing: Picking Up Private Equity Leftovers [View article]
    Nice piece, agree 100% and am long the stock as well....FYI, the preliminary 9/10 quarterly numbers are in the final prospectus. solid Q.
    Nov 10, 2010. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Never been to a gordman's, not in my area. They gave full year guidance yesterday, not too different than my 2010 estimates above, smae ballpark top/bottom. Apparel retail stocks been struggling across the board since April for most part.
    Sep 9, 2010. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Alright, you managed to post without name calling. I have no 'alterego' here. I use my real name and have a website that has been in business analyzing every US ipo for 5 1/2 years now. All of 'em, and trust me there are many I do not like. I was also one of SA's original contributors and have been releasing a few pieces now/again to them for 5 1/2 years now.

    GMAN's past two quarters from page 43 of the final prospectus. I will even leave in the debt servicing charges, which will be gone post-ipo.

    2/1/10(seasonally strongest): $154 M topline revenues, 39% gross margins 4% net margins. Fully diluted(18.7 sharecount) eps of $0.33.

    5/1/10(historically GMAN's weakest revenue Q): $112 M topline revenues, 47% gross margins, 5.7% net margins. Fully diluted(18.7 M sharecount) of $0.34.

    those are the past two Q's for GMAN. If you can get a 60PE off those two quarters, feel free I don't see it though. Key going forward is where GMAN can sustain momentum from the 5/1/10 Q as it was a seasonally 'out of the box' quarter.

    I understand the hatred for private equity firms and I attempt to rarely own a debt laden deal. This is not one of them. Past two quarters have been strong, question going forward is whether Gordman's can sustain that momentum. We'll find out and that will be the key to whether GMAN is a successful public company or isn't.

    I don't make this stuff up, it is right there for anyone to look at in the filings. They've had back to back strong quarters heading into ipo. Can they sustain that momentum?
    Aug 24, 2010. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gordmans Stores: A Solid Retailer Goes Public Attractively Priced [View article]
    Well I prefer ipos that price below range as I like things cheaper not more expensive. Been trading ipos for a living for over a decade and I much rather would buy say an AMRC(Which I own) at $10 than original $14-$16 range. I look at ipos a lot different than most in that respect.

    GMAN has a net cash balance sheet post-ipo..the debt that was there pre-came from a leveraged buyout...balance sheet looks nice post-ipo though. How exactly can debt prop up operating numbers? It tends to do the reverse and removing the debt takes away quarterly debt servicing charges and improves the bottom line.

    Insiders selling some shares on ipo has little predictive power on how an ipo will perform over the years. Pull up a long term chart of IHS, that was an ipo that had 100% of shares coming from insiders.

    Seems like nothing but negative comments on SA these days, good indicator of where sentiment lies out there.

    GMAN is not a 4 star ipo by any means...they have been improving metrics quarterly for past year, have cash to put to work opening a few new stores and the multiple for what they will earn in Fy '10 is fairly attractive.

    You cannot value this by 2009 numbers as all retailers had a sluggish first half of '09, GMAN had debt on the books in '09 and they've been steadily improving margins/metrics. At $10, it is attractive...they will need to perform of course, but you can say that about any company.
    Aug 23, 2010. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynavox IPO: Poised for a Great Future [View article]
    one of best performing ipos in 2010 thus far.
    Jun 10, 2010. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha & Omega Semiconductor IPO: Priced to Sell [View article]
    If you fold out the minority interest and normalize taxes, you are looking at about $1.25 on the bottom line for FY '10.
    'Normalized' taxes should be in the 25% range for awhile as AOSL works off carryforward.

    Revenue run rate increased strongly back 1/2 of 2009 and into first Q of 2010 so not sure how or why that is 'miraculous'.

    Yet another Gaskins plug for his website on someone elses article.
    Apr 29, 2010. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment