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Bill Wolf

 
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  • Short Credit Acceptance: Approaching A Negative Inflection Point [View article]
    Very good article!
    May 21, 2014. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar: Tablets Killed The Video Kiosk Star? [View article]
    Read the article my friend. Its about substitute products and time allocation. I didn't say that people are necessarily watching movies on their tablet!
    Feb 11, 2013. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable's Growth Hitting A Wall With New Restaurants Of Lower Quality [View article]
    Zorba, this new article answers your first question and shows how their $$ restaurants are categorically inferior in terms of economics to OPEN.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable's Growth Hitting A Wall With New Restaurants Of Lower Quality [View article]
    Fellas, if you think seated diners is vastly outstripping restaurants and will in the future, why is revenue per restaurant stagnant and seated diners per restaurant decelerating rapidly?
    Jan 25, 2013. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable's Growth Hitting A Wall With New Restaurants Of Lower Quality [View article]
    Thanks for comment.
    Its a saturation multiple, not relevant to today. It is when they have 28,000 restaurants vs. 19,000 today. Do you think they are growing seated diners 26% when they have 28,000 restaurants?
    Jan 24, 2013. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Profit Point [View article]
    Also remember that they have stated many times some of the R&D costs will partly move to the COGS line since they are shipping product to the end customer. OPEX will likely come down a smidge vs previous run rate given this fact. Happens all the time for Intel as they bring new geometries online. (just about every other year in fact.) Materials, labor to run equipment for prototypes, and new equipment Depreciation is expensed as R&D until they ship to customers and then put through COGS.
    Sep 12, 2012. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Knight Capital Group: An Object Lesson In Emergency Financing [View article]
    Sorry John, you've reached the point when you do have something on the line and I think you know it.
    Aug 7, 2012. 10:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip.com Attractively Priced, Despite Margin Pressure [View article]
    Congrats, that was a great trade.
    Jul 28, 2012. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip.com Attractively Priced, Despite Margin Pressure [View article]
    Lemme guess, you were shorting EXPE at $13 in march 09 on slowdown and margin fears?
    Jul 27, 2012. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip.com Attractively Priced, Despite Margin Pressure [View article]
    Just compare Ctrp and LONG revenues. Ctrp 6x the size of LONG which is controlled by EXPE. LONG a nuisance but not a long term threat to CTRP.

    Around the world each geography has 1 winner that accrues a majority of profits from the online travel business. EXPE in US, PCLN in Europe and CTRP in china. Margins are down temporarily while they solidify lead. At this price, don't be surprised to see BIDU, taobao or PCLN make a run at CTRP. BIDU said on call they want to expand via acquisitions in adjacent verticals.
    Long CTRP since $16.
    Jul 27, 2012. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Troubling Risk-Reward Profile [View article]
    and the "future returns to shareholders" are derived from profits of selling products and services. You can't estimate future returns without having a view on the product. Its tough to have a view of the product if you don't go try and experience it. To say its of no interest is intellectually lazy. Best of luck to you too, sincerely.
    Jun 7, 2012. 10:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Troubling Risk-Reward Profile [View article]
    So you can pontificate on stocks (especially on a one product company) without thinking about their products? Genius, John. Companies are the sum of the products and services they sell, no?

    Also, no comment on the "sales statistics" of A6 and BMW 5 series bc they don't fit your thesis? Hmm...
    Jun 7, 2012. 09:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Troubling Risk-Reward Profile [View article]
    Your comparisons to Leaf and Volt are ludicrous. Look at the volumes of audi A6s sold and compare the cachet of that luxury vehicle vs the Tesla Model S. your buyers of this vehicle are not the Leaf buyers. They are luxury car consumers, that like the added perceived value of being environmentally conscience on top of having a vehicle with better performance. it's the brand that has the value going forward. They have proven they can technically build them. I believe they can build them at a profit given their timely purchase of the NUMMI factory. If volumes ever come close to Audi A6 numbers in the next 10 years a $3B market cap will look like a pittance.

    PS, Audi sold >200,000 A6s in 2011 at about $50-55k. BMW sold 300,000 5 series (touring and sedan) in 2011.

    http://bit.ly/KWHQsd

    http://bit.ly/Lx4MKh (pg 25)

    Finally, John, have you sat in one of the cars? If you haven't, you should as minimal due diligence before pontificating on their product on a daily basis.
    Jun 7, 2012. 09:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Government's Support Of Education And For Profits - Shorts Barking Up The Wrong Tree [View article]
    If you detest the for profits so much, why do you work for one? There are some bad actors as there are in every industry. Bernie Ebbers, Aubrey McClendon and Andrew Fastow didnt work in the for profit space. But that doesnt mean everyone in telecom, and natural gas exploration is a crook. Realize the for profits price at a level under that generally set by "non-profit" schools that pay huge salaries to administration level employees and provide large pensions to a broad employee base. Without the non-profits trying to cover a bloated cost base, for-profits wouldn't have the ability to price an education that provided profits for he entities. E blame belongs in many places...
    May 15, 2012. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Government's Support Of Education And For Profits - Shorts Barking Up The Wrong Tree [View article]
    Comparing statistics on education between the population served by these schools and students at Ohio State where parents pick up part of the bill is laughable. Look at some community colleges with similar demographics and you will see similar results. Comparing apples to oranges is silly.
    May 15, 2012. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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