Billy Ford

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

I like the way he took a stab at the Bush Administration, saying they thought home ownership was a right...That is a liberal view if I have ever heard of one. What network does Gasparino work with? oh yeah CNBC..enough said..you are a fool

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

I believe the market is being completely manipulated. This administration knows that sentiment is mostly driven by the stock market. Notice how last year when the market was tanking sentiment was at all time lows, but today because the market has unjustifiably been rising for 7-8 months, that sentiment is better. People, are our economy is worse today than it was last year. The administration and they guys pulling the strings are hoping and praying each night that this consumer sentiment will eventually catch up and people will feel comfortable going out and spending money. What will happen when we face reality and know that the fundamentals associated with +10% unemployment will trump sentiment. The people with money, who can influence economies the most see through these charades, and truly realize that we are not recovering fundamentally. The only thing recovering is a manipulated stock market, which in itself is a bubble waiting to burst. Just a few questions that I ask myself. If we are recovering as the market suggests, then why is fed not even considering raising rates? It's simple, because fundamentally nothing is happening. Where is this stimulus going? It certainly isn't being used to fuel any kind of recovery, unless recovery is banks hoarding cash to cover losses from last year and expected losses of the future. People wake up, banks are hoarding cash for a reason, they are expecting MAJOR losses in the future. Other companies are hitting targets because of one thing, cost cutting. What happens when there are no more costs to cut, and we continue to see top line revenues flat? Yes, I am a bear and I believe our country has seen its best years. Manipulation can only work for short periods of time, and it will be only a matter of time before the rest of you wake up and see that we are way worse off than the media and the government play it out to be.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.05%) says it will cut up to 7% of its workforce in restructuring, for which it will take a Q4 charge of $1.1-1.3B. Expects pre-tax annual cost savings of $1.4-1.7B by 2011, "by reducing layers of management, increasing individual spans of control, and simplifying business structures and processes across the company's global operations." (PR)

come on guys..this is the new normal remember?? apparently that arrogant empty suit in washington thinks so...what a joke...this is why I say anybody believing that we are "recovering" is drinking from the same bucket of kool aid that Obama is mixing up...puke

Mike Shedlock has a hard time seeing why markets went giddy over today's Q3 GDP data: "The government sloshed trillions around and yet disposable income is down, jobs are horrendously weak, and the only reason GDP rose is wasteful government spending, cash-for-clunkers and extremely unaffordable housing tax credits whose effect is soon going to start diminishing."

I dont think we are wallowing in gloom and despair, we just cant stand to see people have this "I told you so" attitude when corporations are barely beating because of cost cutting. All the major companies out there used the sell off in quities last year to revise their numbers to the downside. You can be giddy all you want, but at the end of the day, banks arent lending and small businesses are struggling every day. Unemployment will continue to climb, and people with jobs will continue to pay down debt and live conservatively. Im sorry, but the 2003-2007 years of America are far gone. The holidays this year will be worse than last year. Last year, everyone was in panic mode during the holidays because their portfolios took a 50% hit, but this year everyone has had time to actually feel the impact of the recession. More have been laid off, credit card companies are jacking everyones rate up, and many more reasons for people to have a Christmas that is within whatever means that have. I know in my household, we will have a very thought out, planned budget for Christmas this year, and we still have our jobs. Not to even mention the fact that the housing market is still in the dumps and commercial real estate hasnt had its big crash yet. I just cant get excited about a GDP number that was fueled by money that we as America dont have, and is not being used to implement any sustainable growth. Last thought, accounting, especially on the banks side was real creative this quarter, but that can only go on for so long..The real truth will be out soon enough...

MBA Mortgage Applications: -13.7% vs. -1.8% last week. Refinancings were down 16.8% from the previous week. 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased to 5.07% from 5.02%.

Still waiting on the good news that everyone says this so called "recovery" is based on. If there is no recovery in housing, there will be no "real" recovery anywhere else.
Just a quick thought that a thrid grader could come up with, but I read somewhere the other day that Washington is considering more stimulus. This seems odd since they are the main ones along with the media chanting "recovery" "recovery" "recovery"..Does this seem to be a contradiction to anyone but me? Every day that goes by is more and more evident that our markets are being manipulated..and pushing me one step closer to staying away from this roulette wheel of a stock market

Retail sales fell 2.2% from a year ago, Redbook says, in sharp contrast to the 0.9% gain reported earlier by the ICSC. Still, retailers said a drop in temperatures may have provided the impetus they sought.

Just think, a year ago everyone was in lockdown because Lehman had collapsed and the market was falling off a cliff, and still we are 2% off that...wow..some recovery

Sept. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (.pdf): -12.8% and -13.3% for the 10- and 20-city readings, a 1.7% improvement from a month ago. Figures continue to support the stabilization story, "but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures."

Really??? This report comes out and the futures rise? This is the most obsurd thing I have ever seen. I would actually love to meet someone that can read the article above and actually think that the housing market is improving. I thought we were supposed to be passed the less bad news is good news stage..As much as the market has risen, we need to see some actual solid news to justify the multiples that we are seeing today...This makes me want to throw up

Customer traffic and sales grew at U.S. chain stores over the past week, ICSC says, with retailers reporting a 0.9% boost in sales vs. a year ago and a 0.1% climb vs. last week. ISCS still expects industry sales to decline 2% in Sept. vs. last year.

Also, what people need to realize is that a year ago (what all these reports usually compare to), the sh&# had already hit the fan, and everyone was beginning to panic. My point, if we are barely above that, then things are still horrible out there, and you can call it what you want, but recovery is not the word I would choose

Consumer Credit Sees Record Plunge: Need Another Indicator?

pompano and shark need to wake up. we are truly in different times and you cant point to some chart in 91 and try to find some correlation with that of today. Consumers will continue to delever and we will never meet the growth expectations that the market has already priced in. I dont know when, but I sure would be putting my seat belt on now.

It is not that we are all doom and gloom...I would love to be optimistic about out country's economy, but enough is enough. Some of us are tired of the Fed and the media playing mind games attempting to make us feel all warm and fuzzy insideh hoping we will go back to our old American ways of buying stuff and then trying to figure out how to pay for it later. This time it is different, and I personally believe that this will make us stronger, but if we dont learn any lessons from our mistakes, we will continue to have these brutal cycles every few years

Todd Salamone: Stock Uptrend Intact, Expect No Sharp Pullback

Its funny how people like you are saying that bad news is already built into share prices, but yet we are at 19x earnings. We saw decent earnings compared to ULTRA conservative expectations only on cost cutting. I would guess that the results of cutting costs were Q2, so Q3 better bring some increased revenue to the table which I am very skeptical. This stock market is propped up on the fact that we think people will begin to go out and spend. With real estate still in the dumps, record foreclosures, unemployment at 9.7 and climbing, I am highly skeptical of people rushing out to buy anything. This consumer deleveraging process will take a few years to say the least. It is easy for people to jump on the equity bandwagon when there is a 7 month rally, but you will be the first ones to change your view once you realize that we were simply having a correction to the upside. I dont foresee any sharp legs down, but do believe we are in for a slow decent down from here over the next 6-9 months. What is going to move us up from where we are now besides increasing multiples?? You would have to be crazy to buy into this market right now. I would much rather miss a move higher than to get slammed in the next 6 months.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Its crazy how everyone keeps chanting "recession is over"..."recovery"..but yet retail sales keep steadily declining, week after week. Whats even crazier, is the simple fact that when discussing YOY, we are beginning to get into the time when things got really bad last year and we still are sloping down. Someone, anyone please enlighten me as to why we are so sure that this thing is over. Hey US govt, is the mind trick working yet..Just because you pump positive news into the media, doesnt mean people will feel all happy and go out shopping...oh thats right, they dont have a job, they cant

What Can Stop This Market Rally?

Did you all see the article on bloomberg the other day that headlined something like "Federal Reserve says disclosing loans will hurt banks and economy". Are you effin kidding me??? Basically the SH%& hit fan so hard, that we have been lying to you people. Things are really a lot worse than we lead you to believe. This is a joke..

I personally do believe the Fed is pumping money to firms like Goldman to help offset their "would be bankrupting" losses. One good thing for me is that they need volatility, and at some point the market will just not be able to move higher with a stagnant or even contracting economy, and they will need to hit the sell button..

The Disconnect Between Oil and Natural Gas Prices

This is a great response..I also believe that crude is trading in tandem with equities right now. There is no fundamental reason for the rally crude has seen over the past 6 months...same as with equities..This rally in my opinion is based off of speculative money, thinking the economy is turning around. SO, it boils down to a simple question: If you think the economy is turning around, then have it being long crude..I, on the other hand, think we are only just getting started in this economic downturn...I, too, think oil is ready for a major pull back along with equities..NG is the only thing out there trading on legit fundamentals right now, and i think long term NG would be a great long play...but not any time soon...I think the play is playing the spread on NG between the front month and december...I think you should see some major contraction..my two cents
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Good luck with your long position in oil. I hope that it is not held in commodity futures contracts. The stock market will fall first, then oil will fall and the Dollar will go up out of fear. Other nations markets will follow or even lead as China's stock market has fallen 20% already.

The stock market and oil charts may even look like they fell off of cliff. Demand is way, way down and the economy sucks and will only get worse due to a huge continuing credit contraction.


On Aug 23 11:14 AM ManAboutDallas wrote:

> A plunge in the price of oil? Give your head a shake. How does
> something plunge in price when its supply is decreasing [read: Peak
> Oil] while its demand is inexorably increasing [read: BRIC countries'
> rising demand curve].
>
> Time to stop thinking the world starts at the Statue of Liberty and
> ends at the Golden Gate Bridge.
>
> Couple that with the aberration that oil is still priced in US$,
> declining in value daily now, and about to collapse altogether, and
> the only direction oil is going is.... up.
>
> Sorry if this spoils your lovely, deluded Sunday

Goldman's Macro-Bulls Out in Full Force

TA: Comments (382) FollowWithout fools like this, who would there be to take money from?
Enjoy your stupid bearish bias, too bad it won't pay the bills.

Only morons fight the trend, and right now it's up till it's not.
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Which trend are you speaking of? From march? Ok..nice chart.
I am all for a trend, but this is a trend for disaster. You can say and believe what you want, but in reality, this trend is not at sustainable. You want to look at a trend, plot a line from Oct. 11, 2007 to today....That is the trend I am sticking with...I might possibly put money long if: (oh wait, i am long..long SDS)

Foreclosures were going down
Houses were selling in my neighborhood (and I live in Texas, where we are actually on the stable side of things)
Fannie wasnt asking for billions more
banks werent going under every week
A job report was actually positive and not just "less worse"
I could go on and on and on.

We wont even need a catalyst for a major pullback, one day the big boys pulling the strings will hit the sell button, and it will fall like a house of cards..we may not reach the lows, but we sure could lose 200, 250, and even 300 without even batting an eye...GL to your trend..let me know in a couple of months how that worked out for you.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

man o man...at least 1 article a day on how a bank has failed or is losing hundreds of billions, and the market just shrugs it off..they rally on some bs earnings report where some company laid off 30% of its workers to squeak by consensus. Not that i think the market should be predictable, but come on, this is beginning to be obsurd..Well it has been obsurd for a couple of months now. oh well, I will leave with my 2 cents...If you are long this market, you better be really, really, really careful, because 80% of this is smoke and mirrors, and sooner or later the truth will prevail.When that day comes, you better hold on to you hat, because it will be a long ride down...or maybe not, maybe the ones pulling the strings will continue to prop up this market forever with a bunch of bs