Billy Ford

First Stocks, Then the Economy...Is Job Growth Next?

Im sorry Mr. Kopas, but can you back up your article with a few quick points highlighting how we are "well on our way" to recovery" (your words)? Can you believe that after an entire year of bailouts, stimulus, etc., we are only fractionally better in some areas and still worse in other areas. Housing is still in shambles even with record low rates, foreclosures are rising, delinquencies are rising, banks aren't lending to consumers or small businesses, retail is a tiny bit better compared to 08, consumers are using what income they have to pay down personal debt, Unemployment is still in double digits, etc, etc...The fact is with this is a different recession than any in the last 50 years, so the pace and the manner we come out will be much different. With double digit unemployment, there will continue to be a strain on the consumer and each day that goes by without the recovery ACTUALLY taking place will be one day closer to another leg down. You Bulls have been talking this recovery story for many many months now, but we are in no better shape today than we were then. IF you have made money during this rally, don't be afraid to say it was luck, or that it was a technical buy because we were severely oversold, but don't say it was because we are on the road to recovery....

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

I believe the market is being completely manipulated. This administration knows that sentiment is mostly driven by the stock market. Notice how last year when the market was tanking sentiment was at all time lows, but today because the market has unjustifiably been rising for 7-8 months, that sentiment is better. People, are our economy is worse today than it was last year. The administration and they guys pulling the strings are hoping and praying each night that this consumer sentiment will eventually catch up and people will feel comfortable going out and spending money. What will happen when we face reality and know that the fundamentals associated with +10% unemployment will trump sentiment. The people with money, who can influence economies the most see through these charades, and truly realize that we are not recovering fundamentally. The only thing recovering is a manipulated stock market, which in itself is a bubble waiting to burst. Just a few questions that I ask myself. If we are recovering as the market suggests, then why is fed not even considering raising rates? It's simple, because fundamentally nothing is happening. Where is this stimulus going? It certainly isn't being used to fuel any kind of recovery, unless recovery is banks hoarding cash to cover losses from last year and expected losses of the future. People wake up, banks are hoarding cash for a reason, they are expecting MAJOR losses in the future. Other companies are hitting targets because of one thing, cost cutting. What happens when there are no more costs to cut, and we continue to see top line revenues flat? Yes, I am a bear and I believe our country has seen its best years. Manipulation can only work for short periods of time, and it will be only a matter of time before the rest of you wake up and see that we are way worse off than the media and the government play it out to be.

Consumer Credit Sees Record Plunge: Need Another Indicator?

pompano and shark need to wake up. we are truly in different times and you cant point to some chart in 91 and try to find some correlation with that of today. Consumers will continue to delever and we will never meet the growth expectations that the market has already priced in. I dont know when, but I sure would be putting my seat belt on now.

It is not that we are all doom and gloom...I would love to be optimistic about out country's economy, but enough is enough. Some of us are tired of the Fed and the media playing mind games attempting to make us feel all warm and fuzzy insideh hoping we will go back to our old American ways of buying stuff and then trying to figure out how to pay for it later. This time it is different, and I personally believe that this will make us stronger, but if we dont learn any lessons from our mistakes, we will continue to have these brutal cycles every few years

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Its crazy how everyone keeps chanting "recession is over"..."recovery"..but yet retail sales keep steadily declining, week after week. Whats even crazier, is the simple fact that when discussing YOY, we are beginning to get into the time when things got really bad last year and we still are sloping down. Someone, anyone please enlighten me as to why we are so sure that this thing is over. Hey US govt, is the mind trick working yet..Just because you pump positive news into the media, doesnt mean people will feel all happy and go out shopping...oh thats right, they dont have a job, they cant

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

man o man...at least 1 article a day on how a bank has failed or is losing hundreds of billions, and the market just shrugs it off..they rally on some bs earnings report where some company laid off 30% of its workers to squeak by consensus. Not that i think the market should be predictable, but come on, this is beginning to be obsurd..Well it has been obsurd for a couple of months now. oh well, I will leave with my 2 cents...If you are long this market, you better be really, really, really careful, because 80% of this is smoke and mirrors, and sooner or later the truth will prevail.When that day comes, you better hold on to you hat, because it will be a long ride down...or maybe not, maybe the ones pulling the strings will continue to prop up this market forever with a bunch of bs

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

New home sales came in at 384K in June, up 11% from May, vs. consensus of 350K. Sales were down 21.3% vs. the previous year. The median home price of $206,200 was down from May's $221,600.

Does anyone else see the problem with this statement. Up 11% vs consensus!! Who cares about consensus!!! This is the same magic show that corporations are trying to pull..We beat the street..YYAAAYY!...oh, by the way (in fine print) we are down 50% YOY...give me a break..Im surprised wall street is buying into all this BS

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

ebworthen,

you couldnt have said it any better. I also firmly believe this is all a big ball of Sh!t. Goldman and the govt are pulling the strings on this thing. They are trying to force positive feelings on people so that they will go out and buy crap...that may work for a few, but not for the 10% that dont have jobs. Doesnt work for the people like me who are skeptical of this whole charade. I have spoken to many small business owners and they all say about the same thing in that they feel this is just getting started and that they ripple effect is just starting to impact them in a major way. I feel sorry for you if you buy into all this...quit reading the biased articles and watching CNBC...that is precisely the vehicle for which they are trying to build consumer sentiment..it is a joke.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Honestly, unless you are Goldman propping up the market, how can anyone feel confident in buying anything right now?? I truly dont see why the market is even contemplating moving higher. I am getting sick of the media just ignoring the glaring data that is showing we have a LONG ways to go before any recovery can take place. There isnt 1 thing that I can hang my hat on as positive. Retail- stinks and will only get worse. Housing- Horrible, and a 3% increase in starts wont come close to proving to me that things are turning around. Jobs-Come on, we get excited because we are now down to 500K...As unemployment heads even higher, you have to realize that on a percentage basis, in my mind 500K is equivalent to 650K or higher 6 months ago when you factor in the fact that the number of jobs kept creeps lower.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

bgin,

You bring up a great point and it is obvious now how ridiculous our media is. Along the same line as job numbers is retail sales..Did you notice that this week, the retail numbers were barely even mentioned and previous they were "extremely important" because consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP...You know why? Because they were pitiful...Absolutely awful...Our media/govt/lobbyists are trying to control the sentiment with what it chooses to report. You have to be an idiot to see think things are getting better. Dont confuse getting better with a slower pace of decline..That is the most annoying statement ever. Again, they are trying to cover up the fact that we are still in the tank and I am surprised Wall St. is on board with this propaganda. It will just be a matter of time before the truth is out

2009 Dogs of the Dow

Great story. I wouldnt expect any theory to work when you have companies such as GM and C losing their balance on the edge of a cliff. I like most of those companies that you have listed there, but I still think that you have to be cautious with BAC and JP...They seem to be in ok shape, but I will be surprised if the financial sector has seen its worst days. They are relatively cheap looking forward, but you have to wonder will they be able to get back to where they were without as much leverage as before

10 Predictions for 2009

I sure hope most of what you say will in fact come to fruition, but I cant be that optimistic. I will have to disagree with the equities rising 10%. I believe a lot of the banks have shrugged some of this stuff under the rug, and really havent deleveraged to a point where losses wont swallow them up. I foresee another wave of mass foreclosures coming about with the job losses that we are seeing today and still the burden of an illiquid housing market. Much of what we saw was due to ARM resets and plunging home prices...Throw job losses in there and you have yourself a doozy. We will see another panick in the financial markets and with that we will see equity markets sell to at least 6500 - 7000 DJI or even lower. And a rebound above where we are today is unlikely by year end....Most bear markets typically last at least 2 years from peak to bottom and we are only a little over a year into it...the only thing is we did come down a lot in a short amount of time, so nice bounce up could be possible before the bottom falls out again...wherever this timing will fall this year or next is tough to get a handle on, and if I knew, I would be a wealthy man...I am playing for more bad news, and would just offer 1 piece of advice, that being not to get caught up in a bear market rally and think you missed the bottom, because I think we will have plenty more opportunities to buy...Good luck

Obama to the Rescue?

The only change Obama needs to make is not taking advice and money from Franky Raines. Home ownership is a privilege, not a right

5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling

Blah..Blah..Blah....Te... us something we dont know...I will disagree with one thing...This guy is A$$ backwards on the dollar and oil...As long as the market keeps heading in the direction it is..OIL will continue to fall...I dont care what OPEC does..And on the dollar, in case this guy isnt aware, this is becoming more of a GLOBAL issue and the dollar will continue to strengthen due to the fact that this is so widespread....this guy is probably a liberal..once again putting together a chicken little collage, and a nice little hidden political agenda in there...

Our Coming Depression

JGQ,
Before you get condescending on me, the most current data I have, which is today, is TTM Earnings of 56.55, which with S&P at 996.53 puts the P/E at 17.62....so...Im not sure what date you are looking at, but when this clown wrote this article, it was not in excess of 25

Our Coming Depression

Kelly Lieberman,

Can you imagine if John MCcain's preacher said the things that Obama's did? What you mentioned has no bearing on the financial issues going on, but I know one thing that does....can you imagine if McCain was the No.2 recipient of lobby money from Fannie and Freddie like your boy Obama? Do you deny that lending to people who cant pay their bills has a bearing on the crisis we are in today? That is a liberal policy if I have ever heard one. Who cares who is pregnant? Your decisions/mistakes to have sex, dont influence your financial decisions, but the thought that anyone and everyone should own a home does.

This guy's figures are a little inflated to support his thoughts of doom and gloom...PE ratios that exceed 25? What index is this guy referring to?

This guy makes it sound like we should just do away with Credit....Credit is not the problem...Lending to fools who are not credit worthy is the problem which causes a backlash in the sytem. Shame on the wall street carnviores that did encourage these lending practices...which once again was brought on by liberal thinking and liberal pressure from the Clinton Administration...look it up..Im not making this up...